In a pre-Super Bowl interview with Fox News host Bill O’Reilly aired Sunday, President Donald Trump predicted that the New England Patriots would capture the NFL championship by an eight-point margin over the Atlanta Falcons
That prediction goes a little further than most odds currently listed a few hours before game time: Bovada has the Patriots favored by 3 points, and puts the likelihood of them winning by more than seven points at 2-to-1, or a 33 percent chance.
According to Forbes, the safe money is with the president on calling for a Patriots victory. But as for his specific margin of victory, how likely is that?
According to Sporting Charts, the most common margin of victory in NFL games since 2002 has been three points, while teams win by eight points 3.11 percent of the time. That is tied for the 11th most common result, along with a 21-point margin of victory.
A Super Bowl has never been decided by an eight-point margin. The Patriots have also not won by exactly eight points since Week 2 of the 2015 season.
But then again, most of the political experts did not expect Trump to win the presidency, and in two of the past three years, the Super Bowl winner has triumphed by more than eight points.
On social media, fans were quick to parody Trump’s pick by making it appear that it matched the prediction of the popular TV show “The Simpsons.”
However, that image is photoshopped and taken from an October 2016 episode of “The Simpsons” that parodies the Patriots. The show has offered no prediction on the Super Bowl.