Impact2020: November 6, 2020
In today’s Impact2020 briefing, we take a look at where the race between Donald Trump and Joe Biden stands as key states continue to count ballots, and why veteran attorneys from the Bush v. Gore case are staying on the sidelines as the president pursues lawsuits in five states.
On the Ground
Where things stand
Joe Biden inched closer to the presidency Friday as he overtook President Donald Trump in Georgia and Pennsylvania while expanding his lead in Nevada. But with razor-thin margins and thousands of votes still to be counted, the Associated Press has yet to call the race.
In Georgia, the Macon Telegraph’s Nick Wooten reports that Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger said this morning that there are about 8,200 absentee ballots left to count in five counties. There are also 8,900 military and overseas ballots that are due today.
In Pennsylvania, Biden’s lead over Trump was still within the margin where state law would dictate a recount with tens of thousands of ballots yet to count.
Election observers watch as election office workers process ballots at the Allegheny County elections returns warehouse in Pittsburgh, Nov. 6, 2020. (Gene J. Puskar, AP)
The presidential and Senate races in North Carolina have also yet to be called. The Charlotte Observer’s Tyler Dukes and Jim Morrill report there are an estimated 172,000 ballots left to count “but the updated tally is unlikely to change the results of the state’s two biggest races.” As of Friday morning, Trump held a lead of about 77,000 votes over Biden, while GOP Sen. Thom Tillis was ahead of Democrat Cal Cunningham by roughly 97,000.
Steering clear
“Veteran Republican attorneys who fought George W. Bush’s successful legal battle for the presidency in 2000 are steering clear of … Trump’s court fights, unimpressed by a strategy they say is quixotic and undisciplined,” McClatchy’s Michael Wilner reports.
While the Trump campaign files lawsuits across five states to either stop ballot counting, start a recount, or in Arizona’s case, encourage an uninterrupted vote count, the “major legal minds and firms that fueled Bush’s victory in 2000 are staying on the sidelines – or even mocking Trump’s efforts from afar.”
Barry Richard, who was lead counsel in the courtroom in Florida for Bush in 2000, said that while the Bush v. Gore outcome depended on an automatic recount as well as handling a defect in some ballots, “It was entirely different from now, when there basically is no problem – and nobody looking at it legitimately, including a lot of Republicans, thinks there is a problem.”
And Don McGahn, who was appointed by Bush to the Federal Election Commission in 2008 and later served as White House counsel in the Trump administration, quipped that “you need a legal violation to go to court.”
“These are desperation moves by a person who sees litigation as just another tool of doing business,” Richard said. “I don’t think any of this litigation is going to go anywhere.”
About Florida
The Miami Herald team today digs further into how Trump managed to pull off a wider-than-expected margin of victory in Florida.
Alex Daugherty, David Smiley, Bianca Padró Ocasio, and Ben Wieder write: “Trump’s surge in Miami-Dade County — and therefore his victory in the state — wasn’t just fueled by Republican Cuban Americans. His incredible turnaround in the state’s most populous and diverse county also was due to support from the other half of Miami-Dade’s Latino electorate: non-Cuban Hispanics,” many of whom are not registered with either party.
In a county where non-Cuban Hispanics make up around half of the Latino electorate, Trump’s campaign tailored its messaging specifically to Nicaraguans, Colombians, Puerto Ricans and Venezuelans. They note that some analysts speculate Trump may have won upwards of half of non-Cuban Hispanics, a group Biden’s campaign would help him run up the score against the president.
Meanwhile, C. Isaiah Smalls II and Andres Viglucci report that Trump’s support in Miami Gardens, Florida’s largest majority Black city, more than doubled from 2016 “a surprising result that may reflect the ... president’s broader inroads into minority voters’ traditional support for Democratic candidates.”
After Hillary Clinton carried the city with 94% of the vote, Biden’s share dropped to 84% four years later.
Listen Up
On the latest episode of the Beyond the Bubble podcast, the Miami Herald’s Bianca Padró Ocasio and the Fort Worth Star-Telegram’s Bud Kennedy join McClatchy’s Kristin Roberts and Alex Roarty to discuss why Hispanic voters swung towards Trump in Florida and Texas. Available on: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Stitcher | Google Podcasts.
Trail Mix
Battleground state watch
After some surprise victories, conservative leaders see an opportunity to broaden their base of support among voters who share their economic ideals but have not traditionally backed GOP candidates, McClatchy’s Francesca Chambers reports.
“A lawsuit backed by the Trump campaign and Nevada Republican Party that challenges the ballot-counting process in Clark County and could potentially delay the reporting of mail ballots finally made its way to federal court late Thursday,” Riley Snyder and Jackie Valley report for the Nevada Independent.
A federal judge “ordered the U.S. Postal Service to sweep its North Carolina facilities for missing mail-in ballots and deliver them to local elections officials by 5 p.m. Friday,” Hayley Fowler writes for the Raleigh News & Observer.
Gerrymandering reform advocates are cautiously optimistic in North Carolina even as Republicans held onto control of both state legislative chambers, Will Doran reports for the Raleigh News & Observer.
A group of Wisconsin Republicans is urging volunteers to call Trump supporters in Pennsylvania to urge them to mail in absentee ballots by Friday, even though only ballots that are postmarked by Nov. 3 count, Mary Spicuzza, Bruce Vielmetti and Patrick Marley report for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
The Detroit Free Press’ Todd Spangler digs into how Biden won Michigan.
Battle for the Senate
The Kansas City Star’s Bryan Lowry takes a look at why massive fundraising hauls weren’t enough to boost Democratic Senate candidates in red states.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell refused to answer questions about Trump’s unsubstantiated claims that Democrats are attempting to steal the presidential election, Daniel Desrochers reports for the Lexington Herald-Leader.
Number of the Day
3.9 million
That’s how many more votes nationally Biden had than Trump as of Friday afternoon, per the AP.
If only it came down to a dance off
Credit: @marissajv via Storyful
Some demonstrators donning costumes got funky in Philadelphia while Pennsylvania officials continued to count votes.
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This story was originally published November 6, 2020 at 12:33 PM.