Impact2020: November 3, 2020

It’s Election Day! But we may not have official results for days. In this Impact2020 briefing, we explain why that’s the case, and provide a guide for following along with the results tonight in key swing states.

On the Ground

What to watch for

Election Day is finally here! It’s been a wild year, as Americans have waded through Donald Trump’s impeachment, Joe Biden’s come-from-behind Democratic primary win, the worst public health crisis in more than a century that at one point resulted in the president’s hospitalization, an economic recession, and widespread protests over racial injustice as they determined who to vote for.

All of that may lead to us not knowing the winner of the presidential election tonight. “And that’s okay,” writes McClatchyDC Politics Editor Adam Wollner.

“Election officials around the country are dealing with a flood of absentee ballots, so many places won’t be able to report results as quickly as usual. To make matters more complicated, the rules for how and when those ballots can be counted vary state by state — and in some cases, were altered at the last minute by court rulings.”

So with that in mind, here is McClatchy’s guide for following along with the results tonight in the battlegrounds that will decide the outcome of the election, listed in order of when their first polls close. It has poll closing times, mail ballot rules, the state of play and a county to watch for all the key states.

And if you want to kill some time before the polls close, make sure to check out the latest episode of the Beyond the Bubble podcast, where the team breaks down the electoral map and the biggest surprises of the campaign. Available on: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Stitcher | Google Podcasts.

Where Black voters could swing the election

As the election guide notes, North Carolina and Florida could provide some early clues of which direction the race is heading due to its early poll closing time on the east coast and absentee ballot counting process.

In North Carolina, the Raleigh News & Observer’s Dawn Baumgartner Vaughan reports that Black voters could determine the outcome.

“Nearly 1.5 million North Carolina voters are Black, and they lean largely toward Democrats,” she writes. “Even a small change in Black voter participation could have a large impact in a state that voted for President Barack Obama in 2008 but supported … Trump in 2016.”

Credit: Travis Long, the Raleigh News & Observer

Baumgartner Vaughan reports that so far, Black voters in North Carolina, as self-identified through voter registration, have cast nearly 900,000 ballots, accounting for 19.5% of the total early vote. That’s a lower percentage of the overall early vote compared to 2016 and 2012, but in terms of raw numbers, more Black voters cast ballots during the early-voting period this cycle than the last two.

The state is also home to a race that could determine which party controls the Senate. The News & Observer’s Brian Murphy takes a final look at the matchup between GOP Sen. Thom Tillis and Democrat Cal Cunningham, which will go down as the most expensive Senate race in history, before tonight.

Murphy also notes that more than 4.5 million North Carolinians voted before Tuesday.

Making up ground

And in Florida, Trump faces a deficit after about 108,000 more Democrats than Republicans voted through Sunday, meaning the president will need high Election Day turnout like he had in 2016 to carry the state, the Miami Herald’s Alex Daugherty and David Smiley report.

“Estimates of Biden’s pre-Election Day lead by political operatives from both parties range significantly — from 125,000 to 600,000 votes — and it’s likely that tens of thousands of mail ballots that will count toward the election have yet to arrive at elections offices by the 7 p.m. Tuesday deadline,” Daugherty and Smiley note.

In 2016, Trump trailed Hillary Clinton heading into Election Day by around 250,000 votes. But by the end of that day, Trump had a 36,000 vote advantage.

“Trump won Election Day over Hillary Clinton by 13 points,” said Dan Smith, a University of Florida political science professor who compiles and analyzes voter data from across the state. “Is he going to be able to do that this time around? I wouldn’t underestimate that.”

What’s clear is that Trump must win Florida if he wants a second term, “and Democrats have argued that a Biden victory on Election Day will all but assure a Trump loss nationwide.”

Trail Mix

Battleground state watch

• Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel said robocalls are falsely telling residents in the state to vote on Wednesday due to long lines at poling places, McClatchy’s Chacour Koop reports.

• North Carolina’s statewide results from early voting and mail-in voting will be delayed by at least 45 minutes, until 8:15 p.m. ET tonight, after the state’s elections board voted to extend the deadline to vote at one precinct that experienced technical glitches this morning, Will Doran reports for the Raleigh News & Observer.

• Pennsylvania voters have so far returned 2.5 million mail ballots, accounting for 80% of all ballots that were requested, Rob Tornoe reports for the Philadelphia Inquirer.

• On the eve of the election, Wisconsin election officials “sought to assure residents that the voting process is safe and secure — and drive home the message that quick results should not be expected, Laura Schulte, Alison Dirr and Sarah Volpenhein report for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.

• One woman flew from New York to Miami to vote after he absentee ballot didn’t arrive, Karina Elwood reports for the Miami Herald.

Election disruption

• “A federal judge in Washington, D.C., issued an extraordinary Election Day order, ... commanding the U.S. Postal Service to sweep mail processing facilities for undelivered ballots in a dozen postal districts nationwide, including South Florida,” Aaron Leibowitz and Rob Wile report for the Miami Herald.

• A federal judge rejected a bid to throw out thousands of drive-through votes in Harris County, Texas, the Dallas Morning News’ James Barragán reports.

• A district court judge blocked efforts by Trump’s campaign and the Nevada Republican Party to delay the counting of mail ballots in Clark County over alleged issues with signature verification and observation plans, Riley Snyder reports for the Nevada Independent.

• The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Tamar Hallerman and Mark Niesse report that several groups are bracing for election-related court battles in Georgia, including from the Trump campaign, which has lined up attorneys in the state.

Number of the Day

100 million

That’s how many Americans voted early in the 2020 election, according to the U.S. Elections Project.

“This is awesome”

Credit: @RonniAlgeo via Storyful

A voter marveled at the long line in Lansdale, Pa. as dozens waited to cast their ballots this morning.

If someone forwarded this email to you, please consider signing up here for our daily roundup of 2020 election news from McClatchy and other local journalists.

This story was originally published November 3, 2020 at 11:54 AM.