Impact2020: October 30, 2020

Election Day is almost here. In today’s Impact2020 briefing, we take a look at how Donald Trump is betting that lifelong Republicans that may not like him will still come around, fake messages targeting Spanish-speaking voters in Florida, and why the race in North Carolina has remained so close.

On the Ground

Trump’s fate is in their hands

Lifelong Republicans may not like him, but President Donald Trump still thinks they’ll show up to vote for him on Election Day, McClatchy’s Francesca Chambers reports.

Trump’s inner circle believes his instincts on the electorate will ultimately prove to be correct, even as he trails in the national and battleground states polls.

“We continue to say every night the same thing: It feels like 2016 all over again,” Lara Trump, a senior campaign adviser, said of conversations with her husband Eric, the president’s son. “It feels like the media is missing it again. It feels like the polls are wrong again.”

Still, allies “have counseled Trump to convince voters who are predisposed to supporting his policies by focusing on issues such as the economy.” And he appears to have incorporated some of their advice into his speeches at recent rallies, “drawing a vivid contrast between himself” and Joe Biden, Chambers notes.

Credit: Chris O’Meara, AP

Door-knockers in battleground states are also stressing the Trump administration’s track record on conservative issues to appeal to traditional Republicans.

“They have voted for their entire lives based on a certain issue set and the exact accomplishments President Trump’s administration have achieved,” Nick Trainer, the campaign’s director of battleground strategy, said. “We made the same calculus in 2016 down the home stretch that policy — and now, his successful record in his first term — is what’s going to get those folks to cast their ballots for the president.”

Sparking fear

The Miami Herald’s Ana Ceballo and Bianca Padró Ocasio detail how Spanish-speaking residents in South Florida have been exposed to a barrage of deceptive claims before Election Day.

The latest example is an anonymous threatening message to Spanish-speaking Trump supporters in WhatsApp chats that “closely mirrors false, often racist and anti-Semitic, narratives peddled in local Spanish media where some hosts and political pundits have suggested a vote for ... Biden would mean supporting a violent takeover of the country,” the Herald reports. “Alternatively, recent intimidating messages suggest Trump supporters will become the target of crimes by an anonymous group if the president loses and refuses to concede.”

Some Hispanic Trump supporters are taking those threats seriously, citing traumatizing violent experiences they’ve had in their home countries. And some, like Erick Arevalo of Homestead, are growing worried about the toll fake scams and unsubstantiated threats are taking on their relatives.

“They are all really scared, and they all really believe it,” Arevalo said. “It doesn’t matter how many times I have told them that it’s OK, to not worry about it and that it is fake news and that nothing is going to happen. They are really worried and scared.”

Still close in NC

Four days out from Election Day, Biden and Trump remain locked in a tight race in the pivotal battleground of North Carolina, where upwards of two-thirds of likely voters may have already cast their ballots, the Charlotte Observer’s Jim Morrill writes.

While the latest survey from the New York Times and Siena College found Biden up by three, a RealClearPolitics average of the last seven polls show the two candidates virtually tied in the state, which has 15 electoral votes up for grabs.

Morrill notes that just about every poll shows a wide gender gap in North Carolina, with Trump leading by double digits with men and Biden leading by double digits with women.

Driving up turnout among Black voters will be key for Biden. “Seventy-two percent of Black voters in the New York Times/Siena poll said they’ve already voted, compared with 64% of white voters,” Morrill writes. “Numbers from the State Board of Elections show that Black voters make up 19.8% of early- and absentee voters. They comprise 20.6% of registered voters.”

Morrill also has a guide on what to watch for in North Carolina as the results roll in on election night.

Listen Up

On the last episode of the Beyond the Bubble podcast before Election Day the team discusses the state of the battleground map, the biggest surprises of the campaign and what results they are most looking forward to seeing on the big day. Download and subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Stitcher | Google Podcasts.

Trail Mix

Battleground state watch

• Detroit election officials are projecting voter turnout to hit 50% in the city, which would be higher than 2016, but lower than 2012 and 2008, Niraj Warikoo reports for the Detroit Free Press.

• Republicans are on the defensive in the traditionally conservative Milwaukee suburbs, Molly Beck and Patrick Marley write for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.

• Trump released “a two-page policy paper aimed at Latinos in the U.S. outlining his plans to prioritize business lending for Hispanic businesses, impose further sanctions on Latin American countries with communist regimes and support religious freedom,” the Miami Herald’s Bianca Padró Ocasio reports.

• The Fort Worth Star-Telegram’s Mark Dent examines what happens if Texas is too close to call between Trump and Biden on election night.

Election disruption

• The Wisconsin State Journal’s Riley Vetterkind reports that the Wisconsin Supreme Court declined to take up a request from clerks in two counties to allow them to fill in a ballot misprint on as many as 13,500 ballots, which could cause delays in reporting results on Election Day.

• A federal court sided “with a GOP challenge to Minnesota’s extended deadline for receiving absentee ballots after Election Day, imperiling a state rule that would count mail-in ballots received up to a week after Tuesday’s election,” Stephen Montemayor reports for the Minneapolis Star Tribune.

• Michigan election clerks say they have “deep concern” about violence and COVID-19 at polling places next Tuesday, Dave Boucher and Christina Hall write for the Detroit Free Press.

Battle for Congress

• GOP Sen. David Perdue pulled out of his final Georgia Senate debate this Sunday with Democrat Jon Ossoff to join Trump at a rally in the state, Greg Bluestein reports for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

• In Florida’s 27th district, Trump endorsed Republican Maria Elvira Salazar, even though she says voters who like Obamacare “can keep it,” Alex Daugherty reports for the Miami Herald.

Number of the Day

9 million

The Texas Tribune reports that more than 9 million Texans have cast their ballots so far, surpassing the state’s total votes cast in 2016.

“We’re the actual The State”

Credit: Thomas Patrick Lennon

In this video, the comedy group The State pokes fun at the newspaper “The State” before ultimately siding with its editorial board to endorse South Carolina GOP Sen. Lindsay Graham’s Democratic challenger, Jaime Harrison. More on that from, of course, The State’s Maayan Schechter.

For Planning Purposes

Oct. 30

President Donald Trump travels to Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota

Joe Biden visits Iowa and Wisconsin

Vice President Mike Pence campaigns in Arizona

Kamala Harris travels to Texas

Oct. 31

Trump travels to Pennsylvania

Biden visits Michigan

Pence heads to North Carolina

Harris campaigns in Florida

Nov. 1

Trump visits Michigan, Iowa, North Carolina, Georgia and Florida

Biden campaigns in Pennsylvania

Harris travels to Georgia and North Carolina

Nov. 2

Trump travels to North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin

Biden and Harris campaign in Pennsylvania

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This story was originally published October 30, 2020 at 1:00 PM.