Impact2020: October 29, 2020
In today’s Impact2020 briefing, we take a look at how Florida could provide some election night clarity, last-minute Supreme Court rulings in North Carolina and Pennsylvania and a coronavirus vaccine deadline getting pushed beyond Election Day.
On the Ground
An early signal
Florida could help prevent a drawn-out race between President Donald Trump and Joe Biden, David Catanese and David Smiley report for the Miami Herald.
“Due to the state’s long experience administering mail-in ballots, ability to count them early and requirement that they must be received by the time polls close on Election Day, Florida is expected to report its tallies considerably faster than other battlegrounds,” they write. While Florida law allows absentee ballot counting to begin 22 days before Election Day, officials in other key states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are not allowed to do so until Nov. 3.
And if Biden can be named the clear winner of Florida’s coveted 29 electoral votes on election night or early in the morning on Nov. 4, “it could provide the first signal that he’s well on his way to winning the White House.”
Catanese and Smiley note that “operatives in both parties see Florida as a must-win for Trump, while Biden would still have several other viable paths to an Electoral College victory without the state.” Currently, polling averages show Biden with a lead of just over 1% in Florida.
SCOTUS rules on mail ballot deadlines
After new rulings from the U.S. Supreme Court, mail ballots that are received after Election Day will be counted in two critical battleground states.
In North Carolina, Brian Murphy, Colin Campbell and Danielle Battaglia report for the Raleigh News & Observer that the deadline for election officials to receive ballots that are postmarked by Nov. 3 is now Nov. 12. The previous deadline was Nov. 6. The Supreme Court declined to overturn lower court rulings that upheld the new date.
“More than 3.6 million North Carolina voters already have cast their ballot as of Wednesday morning,” the News & Observer team writes. “More than 1.45 million voters requested absentee by-mail ballots and more than half (over 819,363) had returned them.”
In Pennsylvania, the nation’s high court rejected a plea from state Republicans “to strike down a three-day extension for counties to accept mail ballots but has left open the possibility that it will hear the case and that those votes might not ultimately be counted,” Angela Couloumbis writes for the Philadelphia Inquirer.
Credit: Patrick Semansky, AP
Given that the Nov. 6 deadline could be revisited later, state election officials are urging voters to hand-deliver their mail ballots if they haven’t already submitted them as soon as possible.
So far, nearly 2 million of the more than 3 million absentee ballots that were requested in Pennsylvania have been returned, Laura McCrystal notes for the Inquirer.
Newly appointed Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett did not weigh in on either case.
Not until after Election Day
Trump had repeatedly pushed for a COVID-19 vaccine to be available by Nov. 3, but a letter from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows it won’t be ready until after the presidential election.
McClatchy’s Michael Wilner obtained the letter sent to governors this week. It pushes back a Nov. 1 deadline for states to be ready to receive and distribute coronavirus vaccines to Nov. 15.
“The initial deadline caused a storm of controversy due to its proximity to Election Day, raising questions over whether political pressures were coming to bear on CDC leadership,” Wilner notes.
Listen Up
The final episode of the Beyond the Bubble podcast before Election Day is here! The team breaks down the state of the battleground map, the biggest surprises of the campaign and what results they are most looking forward to seeing. Download and subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Stitcher | Google Podcasts.
Trail Mix
Battleground state watch
Florida Democrats hope Biden’s visit to Broward County today will help boost Black turnout, David Smiley reports for the Miami Herald.
Florida Republican Sen. Rick Scott, who is not on the 2020 ballot, will run a negative TV ad against Biden, Alex Daugherty reports for the Miami Herald.
A new poll finds that young North Carolina voters are less likely to trust that the 2020 election will be legitimate, Will Doran writes for the Raleigh News & Observer.
The chair of the Wisconsin Republican Party said hackers stole $2.3 million from their campaign account, Bill Glauber and Patrick Marley report for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
Battle for Congress
The State’s Joseph Bustos reports that a conservative movement that spawned Republican challengers to South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham in 2014 is now supporting him.
In North Carolina, GOP Sen. Thom Tillis continues to campaign around the state while Democrat Cal Cunningham hasn’t made any publicized appearances since issuing an apology following allegations of marital infidelity, Jim Morrill reports for the Charlotte Observer.
As their Senate race concludes, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and Democrat Amy McGrath are weighing safety concerns on the campaign trail as COVID-19 cases surge in Kentucky, the Lexington Herald-Leader’s Daniel Desrochers reports.
Number of the Day
$14 billion
According to the Center for Responsive Politics: “The total cost of the 2020 election will nearly reach an unprecedented $14 billion, making it the most expensive election in history and twice as expensive as the previous presidential election cycle.”
“This is not a personality contest”
Legendary golfer Jack Nicklaus revealed he cast his ballot for Trump saying the president has “delivered on his promises” and “worked for the average person.”
For Planning Purposes
Oct. 29
President Donald Trump visits Florida and North Carolina
Joe Biden campaigns in Florida
Vice President Mike Pence travels to Iowa and Nevada
Oct. 30
Trump travels to Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota
Biden visits Iowa and Wisconsin
Pence campaigns in Arizona
Kamala Harris travels to Texas
Oct. 31
Trump travels to Pennsylvania
Biden visits Michigan
Nov. 1
Trump visits Georgia
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This story was originally published October 29, 2020 at 1:00 PM.