Impact2020: October 21, 2020

In today’s Impact2020 briefing, we take a look at Donald Trump’s efforts to trade senior votes for Latino votes in Florida, how a spike in coronavirus cases in the Midwest may disrupt the GOP’s Election Day strategy, and how the early vote is shaping up in key battlegrounds.

On the Ground

Florida’s two most critical voting blocs

As President Donald Trump continues to struggle with Florida’s seniors, he is increasingly trying to offset his losses with Latino voters in the state, Francesca Chambers and David Smiley report for the Miami Herald.

In a must-win battleground state, “where tight margins can make even small shifts in voter sentiment consequential, the shifting balance between those two demographics could prove decisive,” they write.

“I don’t know if there’s a more important two blocs in the state of Florida,” said Chuck Rocha, the Democratic consultant behind the Latino outreach Nuestro PAC.

Credit: Carlos Giusti, AP

Current polling suggests Trump has lost support among senior voters and improved his standing among Latinos. The danger for the president is that senior voters make up a large slice of the electorate in Florida and are among the most likely to vote.

“Even a small shift among this voter bloc has to be offset by a pretty significant increase across another voting bloc,” said Jeff Johnson, the Florida state director for the AARP. “If one of three votes is cast by someone 65 and over, it’s going to take a lot to make up for a one point or two point shift.”

COVID cases may upend Midwest voting

“A surge in coronavirus cases in counties critical to … Trump’s victory may disrupt his plans to drive up in-person voting on Nov. 3, potentially reducing Republican turnout in areas the president can least afford it,” McClatchy’s Michael Wilner and Alex Roarty report.

They broke down the latest data from swing counties Trump carried in 2016: In Kenosha County, Wis., “the positivity rate for COVID-19 test results has reached 27%.” In Westmoreland County, Penn., “the positivity rate for coronavirus cases has nearly tripled.” And Calhoun County, Mich., “has recently seen the fastest spread of the virus of any county in the state’s lower peninsula.”

Epidemiologists and political operatives believe the numbers point to an increasingly dire Election Day picture.

“I think we can assume that around the time of the election, unfortunately, we’re going to see increased rates of death in particular, given the acceleration we’re seeing in many parts of the country,” said Dr. Laura Jarmila Rasmussen-Torvik, chief of epidemiology in the Department of Preventive Medicine at Northwestern University’s Feinberg School of Medicine.

It’s unwelcome news for Trump’s team, which is running low on money and behind in the polls. And as Democrats hold an edge with mail voting, “Republicans are warning that health scares could upend their last, best chance to catch up in the vote count.”

A different call of duty

Hundreds of military veterans who served in Iraq and Afghanistan are stepping in to replace older poll workers who are at greater risk from COVID-19 this election season, McClatchy’s Tara Copp reports.

A nonpartisan group called Veterans for American Ideals is focusing on setting up veterans to assist at polling places in battleground states like Georgia, Iowa, Michigan and Wisconsin. So far, more than 700 veterans have signed up.

“I’ve never volunteered as a poll worker until now,” said retired Army Capt. Dan Berschinski, 36, who lost both legs when he stepped on an improvised explosive device in Afghanistan in 2009. “It was the pandemic more than anything, with the realization that poll workers are an instrumental part of our voting infrastructure. I thought, now would be a good time for me to fill in.”

Berschinski is volunteering in Fulton County, Ga., where he said the combination of the coronavirus and anxiety about the reliability of mail-in ballots has created “a perfect storm” of pressure on their voting system.

Trail Mix

Battleground state watch

• As of Tuesday afternoon, nearly 2 million North Carolinians had already cast their ballots, accounting for 27% of the state’s registered voters. The Charlotte Observer’s Jim Morrill notes that Democrats, women and Black voters are outpacing other groups so far.

• A U.S. Court of Appeals ruled that mail ballots postmarked by 5 p.m. on Election Day should be accepted by North Carolina’s elections board until Nov. 12, Danielle Battaglia writes for the Raleigh News & Observer.

• The Miami Herald’s Aaron Leibowitz has a breakdown of the first wave of Floridians who have taken advantage of in-person early voting: 154,000 Democrats, 153,700 Republicans and 55,000 unaffiliated voters.

• South Carolina has already smashed its previous record for absentee voting, Zak Koeske reports for The State.

• Wisconsin election officials are anticipating that 60% to 80% of ballots will be cast by mail in the state, but the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Bill Glauber, Alison Dirr and Jessica Rodriguez found that plenty of people still showed up for the first day of early voting.

Battle for Congress

• The Sacramento Bee’s Kim Bojórquez and Kate Irby examine how California Democrats are trying to boost turnout among Latino voters in the state’s key House races.

Number of the Day

67,000

That’s how many Florida residents with a felony conviction have registered to vote since the state ended its lifetime ban on felon disenfranchisement, Lawrence Mower writes for the Miami Herald.

‘Fundraiser about something’

Credit: Chris Pizzello, AP (1997)

The Dallas Morning News’ Elizabeth Thompson has the details about cast members from the “show about nothing” reuniting for a virtual fundraising event to try to help turn Texas blue.

Tune In

The Beyond the Bubble podcast team continues their battleground state tour with a look at the state of play in Arizona. Download and subscribe (and keep and eye out for a new episode tomorrow afternoon): Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Stitcher | Google Podcasts.

For Planning Purposes

Oct. 21

President Donald Trump and Kamala Harris travel to North Carolina

Vice President Mike Pence visits New Hampshire and Ohio

Barack Obama campaigns for Joe Biden in Philadelphia

Oct. 22

Biden and Trump meet for the final presidential debate in Nashville, Tenn.

Pence travels to Michigan and Indiana

Oct. 23

Harris visits Atlanta, Ga.

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This story was originally published October 21, 2020 at 12:35 PM.