Impact2020: October 20, 2020
In today’s Impact2020 briefing, we examine how Joe Biden’s popularity is rising in a hyper-polarized environment, why the Trump campaign is warning of a President Kamala Harris and a last-minute Supreme Court ruling affecting voting in Pennsylvania.
On the Ground
Biden’s popularity rises
With polls showing that Americans “are as dug into their partisan corners, distrustful of their leaders and pessimistic about the direction of the country as ever before,” somehow Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden is only getting more popular, McClatchy’s Alex Roarty writes, a development has surprised operatives in both parties.
Biden’s popularity in recent polls has ranged from robust to modest, but a polling average compiled by RealClearPolitics shows 51% of voters overall view him favorably, a significant improvement since late spring. That’s in stark contrast not only with President Donald Trump, who is consistently viewed unfavorably by a major of voters, but the last Democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton. She had a 38% positive rating in an early November 2016 survey, Roarty notes.
To some Democrats, personal differences between Clinton and Biden could explain some of the discrepancy. “Hillary sometimes does have a bit of an edge rhetorically, and she will take on a fight,” said Democratic Rep. David Price of North Carolina. “And Joe will too, but Joe just has a gift for taking off the rough edges and kind of drawing a circle that includes rather than excludes others.”
There’s also debate over whether Biden’s popularity is a product of his unusually positive campaign or Trump’s demand to stay in the spotlight. “But Democrats argue that personal popularity at least partially explains Biden’s edge over Trump in national and battleground state polls, adding that it’s one of the biggest differences between the 2020 and 2016 races,” writes Roarty.
“I do think [the Biden campaign] does have a real understanding of where people are in this moment of collective grief and rage, and have the good sense to understand that one of the best closing arguments that they can make is this is a guy who understands that grief in particular, that trauma in particular,” said Jess Morales Rocketto, a Democratic strategist.
Credit: Carolyn Kaster, AP
President Harris?
The Trump campaign is trying to convince voters that electing Biden would quickly put running mate Kamala Harris in charge of the country, but David Lightman writes that “no evidence exists of such a plan.”
In his report for the Sacramento Bee, Lightman finds that “Trump backers portray Harris ... as a dangerous radical ready to benefit from a Nancy Pelosi plot to sideline Biden” partly because attacks against Biden aren’t sticking.
While his decades-long record in public office shows Biden is “hardly radical,” Harris “has somewhat less of a record, and the narrative is she’s an extremely left U.S. senator from a thoroughly blue state,” said Don Levy, director of the Siena College Research Institute in New York.
The demonization of Harris also helps feed preconceived notions about a woman running for office. “Of all the accomplished leaders Trump has attacked over his term, his insults and attacks against Kamala Harris only expose his ugly nature and crude use of sexism and racism for political gain,” added Aimee Allison, founder and president of She The People, a national network of women of color.
SCOTUS weighs in on mail voting in PA
The U.S. Supreme Court “allowed Pennsylvania’s 3-day extension for accepting mail-in ballots, with justices denying a request by state Republicans to intervene on the grounds that the state’s highest court had overstepped its authority,” Marie Albiges reports for the Philadelphia Inquirer.
Typically in Pennsylvania, mail ballots must arrive by 8 p.m. on Election Day to count. But last month, the state Supreme Court ruled last month that election officials could accept ballots until 5 p.m. on Nov. 6, anticipating a mail voting surge due to the coronavirus pandemic and potential Postal Service delays.
“Late-arriving ballots must be postmarked by Nov. 3, though those without a postmark will be counted unless there is a ‘preponderance of evidence’ they were mailed after Election Day,” Albiges notes.
The U.S. Supreme Court deadlocked on the GOP-led appeal 4-4, meaning the state Supreme Court ruling stands.
As of Monday, Pennsylvania voters “had requested 2.8 million mail-in and absentee ballots — 1.79 million by Democrats and nearly 694,000 by Republicans,” Albiges writes. “Already, nearly 900,000 had been returned.”
Trail Mix
Battleground state watch
The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Andrew Seidman reports that the perennial battleground of Bucks County, Pa., appears to be slipping further away from Trump even though it is demographically favorable to him.
State law doesn’t allow Wisconsin election officials to stop their vote count on Election Night and reconvene the next morning, so many of them will have to pull an all-nighter, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Patrick Marley writes.
Will Trump vote by mail in the general election? The Miami Herald’s Samantha J. Gross reports that so far the Palm Beach County elections website shows that neither he nor First Lady Melania Trump have requested a ballot.
A PAC funded by Michael Bloomberg is launching anti-Trump ads in Spanish in Florida, featuring a veteran of the Bay of Pigs invasion, Bianca Padró Ocasio reports for the Miami Herald.
Battle for Congress
North Carolina Democratic Senate Cal Cunningham kept his focus on health care and did not respond to reports of an affair with the wife of another veteran during a virtual event Monday, Brian Murphy writes for the Raleigh News & Observer.
The Kansas City Star reviewed financial disclosures and congressional documents that revealed several instances in which Kansas GOP Senate nominee and Rep. Roger Marshall pushed Congress to overturn restrictions on physician-owned hospitals while his wife held a financial stake in the industry. Bryan Lowry and Jonathan Shorman have the details.
Number of the Day
72%
That’s the percentage of voters who say they support a new $2 trillion stimulus package, according to the latest national New York Times/Siena College poll.
“I signed up for this”
Credit: Travis Heying, Wichita Eagle
Brandon Whipple, the mayor of Wichita, Kan., received a death threat from a man apparently opposed to the city’s COVID-19 restrictions. But he remains undeterred by the event.
Tune In
The Beyond the Bubble podcast team continues their battleground state tour with a look at the state of play in Arizona. Download and subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Stitcher | Google Podcasts.
For Planning Purposes
Oct. 20
President Donald Trump visits Pennsylvania
Oct. 21
Trump and Kamala Harris travel to North Carolina
Pence visits New Hampshire and Ohio
Barack Obama campaigns for Joe Biden in Philadelphia
Oct. 22
Biden and Trump meet for the final presidential debate in Nashville, Tenn.
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This story was originally published October 20, 2020 at 12:33 PM.