Impact2020: October 19, 2020
It’s 15 days until Election Day! In today’s Impact2020 briefing, we take a look at how Florida Republicans are responding to Democrats’ mail voting edge, how one Senate Republican is beginning to tiptoe away from Donald Trump, and why the president is zeroing in on rural Arizona today.
On the Ground
Here comes the FL GOP
On the first day of in-person early voting in Florida, the Miami Herald’s David Smiley and Karina Elwood write that it’s “expected to trigger a conservative wave that will build over the next two weeks and crest on Election Day.”
Following a record-breaking surge of mail-voting Democrats in the state, “around two-thirds of participating Florida GOP voters are likely to cast a ballot in person this fall,” they report. That’s given Joe Biden an edge over President Donald Trump, but if the remaining registered Republican voters show up to the polls to vote, “it would eat significantly into Democrat’s mail voting lead” given that the number of registered Republicans and Democrats is close to parity.
Democrats remain confident, however, that Biden can withstand the surge and take Florida’s 29 electoral votes. Democratic National Committee Chairman Tom Perez noted that “it’s not just Democrats who are voting,” saying that independent voters will skew towards Biden.
As of Sunday, 500,000 independent voters had voted by mail. One Florida Democratic strategist said that “as of Oct. 14, about 111,000 left-leaning voters without party affiliation had voted by mail, compared to 39,000 right-leaning independents.” Additionally, 12% of the first 900,000 Democratic mail ballots cast in Florida, were submitted by voters who didn’t participate in the 2016 election or the 2018 midterms, according to the strategist.
“That’s where you go from rearranging deck chairs to expanding the electorate,” said Democratic pollster Tom Eldon. “As far as I’m concerned, Democrats can’t have a big enough lead going into Election Day. And I haven’t talked to any consultant with any intention of taking their foot off the gas.”
Private opposition
During a meeting with the Fort Worth Star-Telegram’s editorial board, GOP Sen. John Cornyn of Texas revealed that he disagreed with Trump on issues such as budget deficits and debt, tariffs and trade agreements and border security, but chose to keep the opposition private, Gordon Dickson reports.
Dickson writes that Cornyn was “asked if he and other Republicans regretted not pushing Trump to combat the COVID-19 virus more aggressively, or rein in some of his political stances that were unpopular.” Cornyn initially described his relationship with Trump as “maybe like a lot of women who get married and think they’re going to change their spouse, and that doesn’t usually work out very well.”
Ultimately, Cornyn said, “I think what we found is that we’re not going to change President Trump. He is who he is. … What I tried to do is not get into public confrontations and fights with him because, as I’ve observed, those usually don’t end too well.”
Cornyn noted that former Sen. Bob Corker of Tennessee initially got along with the president, but didn’t run for re-election in 2018 after clashing with Trump on several issues. Recent polls show Cornyn has a small lead over Democratic challenger MJ Hegar, but both are “vying for undecided voters” in an election season “in which many once-solid Republican public office seats are now in reach for Democrats,” Dickson writes.
Rural focus
The Arizona Republic’s Ronald J. Hansen writes that Trump’s trip to Prescott and Tucson, Ariz., today “offers a window to the narrow route the embattled candidate must take to win the state again.”
Trump has made several stops and spent plenty of money in Phoenix, the state’s population center, during the campaign. “But as the presidential race is winding down and as polls suggest a dwindling path for Trump’s re-election, he needs to dominate rural Arizona, as he did in 2016,” Hansen reports. “He also seeks to neutralize the Tucson area, which has increasingly become a problem for Republicans running statewide. It is in microcosm a scenario playing out across the country.”
Credit: Andrew Harnik, AP
Trump won Arizona by 3.5 percentage points in 2016, but his margin “was the smallest since Republican Bob Dole’s loss to President Bill Clinton,” Hansen notes. Polls currently show Biden with a narrow lead over Trump in the state.
Trail Mix
Battleground state watch
Kamala Harris has rescheduled her North Carolina visits, postponed from last week, to Wednesday, reports the Charlotte Observer’s Jim Morrill. Trump is also scheduled to be in the state that day.
Armies of Florida lawyers have been deployed for the presidential election as the state prepares for a possible 2000 sequel, the Miami Herald’s Jay Weaver reports.
The Michigan Court of Appeals “reversed a lower court ruling that said late-arriving ballots must be counted, as long as they are postmarked the day before Election Day,” Paul Egan reports for the Detroit Free Press.
The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Julia Terruso examines how white women fleeing the GOP could cost Trump in Pennsylvania.
The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Craig Gilbert reports that some Wisconsin communities have already surpassed half of their 2016 voter turnout levels.
Battle for Congress
The Kansas City Star’s Bryan Lowry and Katie Bernard have two profiles out today of the two candidates vying in Kansas’ 3rd congressional district: Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids and Republican Amanda Adkins.
NARAL Pro-Choice America called on Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein of California to step down from the Judiciary Committee after her warm remarks about the Amy Coney Barrett hearings, the Sacramento Bee’s Andrew Sheeler reports.
Georgia Sen. David Perdue’s mocking of Kamala Harris’ name helped his Democratic opponent, Jon Ossoff, raise $1.8 million in 48 hours, Greg Bluestein and Maya T. Prabhu write for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
Number of the Day
5
A new CBS News/YouGov poll shows Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 51% to 46%, in Wisconsin.
Any time is milkshake time
Credit: Carolyn Kaster, AP
Joe Biden couldn’t resist stopping for milkshakes with his granddaughter after his drive-in rally in Durham, N.C.
Tune In
The Beyond the Bubble podcast team continues their battleground state tour with a look at the state of play in Arizona. Download and subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Stitcher | Google Podcasts.
For Planning Purposes
Oct. 19
President Donald Trump visits Arizona.
Vice President Mike Pence visits Maine and Pennsylvania
Kamala Harris visits Florida
Oct. 20
Trump visits Pennsylvania
Oct. 21
Trump and Harris travel to North Carolina
Pence visits New Hampshire and Ohio
Oct. 22
Joe Biden and Trump meet for the final presidential debate in Nashville, Tenn.
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This story was originally published October 19, 2020 at 12:34 PM.