Impact2020: October 16, 2020
In today’s Impact2020 briefing, we take a look at how Republicans are cutting into Democrat’s voter registration edge in Florida, growing concerns over mail ballots getting rejected, and the moments that mattered from last night’s dueling town halls.
On the Ground
Voter registration wars
Less than three weeks out from Election Day, the Miami Herald’s David Smiley and Martin Vassolo report that Florida Republicans are as close to parity with Democrats among registered voters as they’ve been in half a century or more.
According to new numbers from the Florida Division of Elections, there are now 5,169,012 registered Republican voters and 5,303,254 registered Democratic voters in the state, a difference of just 134,242. That gap is less than half of what it was in 2016, when President Donald Trump won Florida by 112,000 votes.
Last year, Democrats spoke of plans to register scores of voters to “build back toward the 658,000 registered voter advantage that helped Barack Obama win Florida and become president in 2008,” Smiley and Vassolo note, but “those plans were largely obliterated by the coronavirus pandemic, which forced both parties and presidential campaigns to pull their field staff and volunteers off the ground for months.”
Meanwhile, Tyler Perry is launching a new effort to register 250,000 Black residents in Florida, Devoun Cetoute reports for the Herald.
2020’s hanging chads?
The Miami Herald’s Mary Ellen Klas looks towards election night, exploring whether rejected mail-in ballots could be Florida’s hanging chads of 2020.
Florida’s election supervisors have mailed a record 5.6 million ballots to voters as of Thursday. “The unprecedented spike in demand for mail-in ballots spawned by the coronavirus has led to a subsequent surge in the number of ballots that are poised to be rejected — either because they arrive past the election night deadline or are invalidated because they have a problem with the signature,” Klas writes.
Of the 2 million ballots returned so far, 11,637 were flagged as invalid, according to University of Florida election expert Dan Smith. “This is only the tip of the iceberg,” he said. “Thousands more mail ballots will arrive in the coming days, cast by eligible voters.”
Klas notes that “if the presidential election stays as close as the polls indicate and there is a recount, uncounted ballots may play a significant role, and potentially draw a legal challenge.”
“I could certainly see the mismatched signature as the hanging chad of 2020,’’ Smith said, referring to the 2000 election when the presidential contest between George W. Bush and Al Gore hinged on a massive recount of punch card ballots.
Florida voters have until Nov. 5 to fix or “cure” an error if their ballot is rejected and send the correction to their elections office to have their vote count.
A 2000 AP file photo shows a Broward County, FL canvassing board member examining a disputed ballot. Credit: Alan Diaz
Town hall takeaways
In Trump’s town hall appearance in Miami last night he “put to bed a controversy over his reluctance to disavow white supremacists … then quickly refused to condemn a conspiratorial online cult that believes the country’s institutions are run by a shadowy cabal of pedophiles,” David Smiley and Alex Daugherty write for the Miami Herald.
“I just don’t know about QAnon,” Trump said. “What I do hear about it, they are very strongly against pedophilia.”
Trump spent much of the evening discussing his “reluctance to wear a mask, his handling of the coronavirus pandemic, and his hesitation to condemn hate groups” during the first debate.
Meanwhile, Joe Biden participated in ABC’s town hall in Philadelphia, where he “largely avoided targeting Trump, delivering a string of answers to voters meant to convey his inclination for consensus.”
And, while Biden didn’t directly answer whether he would add more justices to the Supreme Court to try to counter a conservative tilt, he said he’d make his position known before Election Day.
“It depends on how this turns out … how it’s handled,” he said of the hearings for nominee Amy Coney Barrett. “It depends on how much they rush this. … I’m open to considering what happens from that point on.”
Tune In
The Beyond the Bubble podcast team continues their battleground state tour with a look at the state of play in Arizona. Download and subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Stitcher | Google Podcasts.
Trail Mix
Battleground state watch
Trump promised supporters that “the red wave is coming” during a rally in Greenville, N.C., Brian Murphy reports for the News & Observer.
The Sacramento Bee’s David Lightman takes a look at the potential political implications of Kamala Harris being off the campaign trail for at least a few days.
“More than 50 Wisconsin municipalities — many of them in rural areas — have a severe shortage of poll workers but can get help from the National Guard if they don’t find more soon,” Patrick Marley and Molly Beck report for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
“Pennsylvania has rejected 372,000 requests for mail ballots, straining election offices and bewildering voters,” Jonathan Lai, Ryan McCarthy and Derek Willis write for the Philadelphia Inquirer.
Battle for Congress
South Carolina Democratic Party leaders filed an ethics complaint against Sen Lindsey Graham after he appeared to promote his campaign website in a Senate office building, The State’s Joseph Bustos reports.
Kentucky Democrat Amy McGrath raised $36.8 million in the third quarter, more than double what Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell brought in during the same period, the Lexington Herald-Leader’s Daniel Desrochers reports.
The Kansas Senate race between Democrat Barbara Bollier and Republican Roger Marshall is bringing in big money. Bryan Lowry and Ben Wieder track where it’s coming from for the Kansas City Star.
Number of the Day
11
The Raleigh News & Observer notes that more than 826,285 North Carolinians have already voted in the 2020 election, accounting for about 11% of the state’s registered voters.
Unveiled
From “Red Sweater Guy” to “Nodding Lady” … Tom Nichols and a few other Trump town hall watchers noticed a woman nodding in the background to nearly everything the president said last night. The Miami Herald’s Alex Daugherty found out who she was.
For Planning Purposes
Oct. 16
President Donald Trump delivers remarks in Fort Myers, Florida, then visits Macon, Ga.
Joe Biden travels to Michigan
Vice President Mike Pence travels to Selma. N.C.
Kamala Harris attends a virtual fundraiser
Oct. 17
Trump travels to Muskegon, Mich., and Janesville, Wis.
Pence visits Reading, Pa.
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This story was originally published October 16, 2020 at 1:29 PM.