Impact2020: October 12, 2020

In today’s Impact2020 briefing, we have a dispatch from the emerging battleground of Arizona, where Republicans are growing nervous about a potential wipeout. Meanwhile, Senate Democratic candidates are raising mind-boggling amounts of money three weeks out from Election Day, and President Donald Trump prepares for his first swing state visit since his coronavirus diagnosis.

If someone forwarded this email to you, please consider signing up here for our daily roundup of 2020 election news from McClatchy and other local journalists.

On the Ground

Betting on Arizona

What happens if Joe Biden loses a critical Midwest battleground state like Michigan or Wisconsin? McClatchy’s David Catanese reports that Democrats have a “fail-safe option”: Arizona.

Catanese writes from Phoenix that the party is counting on the emerging swing state to act as a “a potential replacement state with enough electoral power to prevent President Donald Trump’s re-election.” Trump carried the state in 2016, but in 2020, some Republicans are bracing for a defeat that could “cut deeply down the ballot,” according to a GOP aide in state government.

After Vice President Mike Pence traveled the state last week, the Trump campaign is planning more visits in the coming week, Catanese reports. Constantin Querard, a conservative political consultant in Phoenix, said, “If anybody has a slight polling advantage it would be Biden, but the Trump campaign is much stronger on the ground.”

Catanese notes that while Team Trump “has maintained a vigorous door-knocking presence” there are some Democratic groups working online “to mobilize the two constituencies most crucial to their success: Latinos — which now make up 24 percent of eligible voters here — and moderate Republican women.”

Ultimately, “Biden doesn’t necessarily need Arizona to reach 270 electoral votes if he manages to win back the so-called ‘blue wall’ states in the Rust Belt from Trump,” writes Catanese. But “Republicans have never won the presidency without it.”

Shattering records

Even as many of them are running in traditionally Republican states, Senate Democratic candidates are continuing to raise eye-popping sums of money as Election Day draws closer.

Over the weekend, South Carolina Democrat Jaime Harrison announced he raised $57 million in the third quarter of the year, shattering the previous record held by Texas’ Beto O’Rourke for the largest fundraising haul for a U.S. Senate candidate in a three-month stretch.

The State’s Joseph Bustos writes that the record total “was likely fueled by favorable poll numbers showing Harrison tied or within one point of … Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham. News of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s death also led to a surge of contributions to Democratic candidates across the country.”

Harrison has now raised $86 million total for his campaign. Graham has yet to reveal his third-quarter fundraising figures.

Meanwhile, Democrat Barbara Bollier raised $13.5 million in the third quarter, “an unprecedented three-month fundraising haul for a candidate in Kansas,” the Kansas City Star’s Bryan Lowry reports. Entering October, she had nearly $7.6 million on hand for her campaign against GOP Rep. Roger Marshall.

Back to Florida

President Donald Trump plans to return to the campaign trail with a rally in Florida today, 10 days after he announced he had contracted COVID-19. David Smiley and Francesca Chambers reported for the Miami Herald that he had hoped to travel to the swing state over the weekend, but instead settled for a phone call with about a dozen law enforcement officials in Miami-Dade County. Trump also delivered a speech from the White House Saturday, and is slated travel to Pennsylvania, Iowa and North Carolina this week.

This evening he will be on his way to Sanford, Fla., just days after his doctor said he is no longer at risk of transmitting the coronavirus. Fox 35 Orlando’s Vicki Karr reported that people were lined up for the rally as early as 5 a.m., with about 100 people in line by 9 a.m. “Sanford is in Central Florida’s I-4 corridor, which is typically a fiercely contested region of the state,” Karr noted.

For his part, Biden is scheduled to make a trip tomorrow to Broward County, Fla., with events geared towards seniors and Black voters, the South Florida Sun Sentinel’s Anthony Man reports. The visit will mark Biden’s third to Florida over the last month.

Ahead of those visits, Mary Ellen Klas reports for the Miami Herald that Florida’s seniors, the state’s most reliable voters, are shifting away from Trump.

Tune In

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Tia Mitchell joins McClatchy’s Kristin Roberts and Adam Wollner on the latest episode of the Beyond the Bubble podcast to discuss Biden’s chances of becoming the first Democratic presidential nominee to carry Georgia since 1992. Download and subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Stitcher | Google Podcasts

Trail Mix

Battleground state watch

• The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Craig Gilbert lays out how Wisconsin could be the “tipping point” in the 2020 presidential election.

• Donald Trump, Jr. and Sen. Marco Rubio teamed up to rally Miami Hispanics for the Trump campaign over the weekend, Bianca Padró Ocasio reports for the Miami Herald.

• Meanwhile, a pro-Biden caravan snakes its way through Miami on Sunday, the Miami Herald’s Monique O. Madan writes.

• The Texas Tribune’s Abby Livingston explains how down-ballot candidates could help Democrats flip Texas this year.

• Washoe County is emerging as a critical battleground in Nevada, Megan Messerly writes for the Nevada Independent.

Governor watch

• Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear is in quarantine after a member of his security detail tested positive for COVID-19, reports Lexington Herald-Leader’s Daniel Desrochers.

• The Kansas City Star’s Bryan Lowry examines Democratic gubernatorial candidate Nicole Galloway’s strategy of maximizing turnout in the Kansas City area.

VP watch

• The Sacramento Bee’s David Lightman and Lara Korte report that Kamala Harris is facing a torrent of racist and sexist criticism online. “She’s experiencing what Hillary Clinton went through, only on steroids,” said one Democratic consultant.

Number of the Day

49%

A new CBS News/YouGov poll found that Biden and Trump are tied at 49% in Iowa.

“The world is watching”

Credit: Shawn Thew/Pool via AP

Graham drew attention to the high stakes of the Supreme Court confirmation hearings for Amy Coney Barrett in his opening statement this morning.

For Planning Purposes

Oct. 12

President Donald Trump visits Sanford, Fla.

Vice President Mike Pence and Joe Biden visit Ohio

Oct. 13

Trump travels to Johnstown, Penn.

Pence visits Waukesha, Wis.

Biden visits Broward County, Fla.

Oct. 14

Trump travels to Des Moines, Iowa

Pence visits Grand Rapids. Mich.

Oct. 15

Trump visits Greensville, N.C.

Biden participates in an ABC News town hall in Philadelphia

This story was originally published October 12, 2020 at 12:20 PM.