Impact2020: July 15, 2020
Welcome to today’s Impact2020 briefing, where we take a closer look at ad spending in battleground states in 2020 compared to 2016, the messages the Trump and Biden teams are taking on the road this week, and the Kansas congressman facing felony charges three weeks before his primary.
On the Ground
Lessons learned
“Democrats have spent six times as much money on TV ads in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin this year than they had at the same point in 2016, a striking demonstration of the unparalleled importance of the three states in the 2020 presidential campaign,” McClatchy’s David Catanese reports.
That’s according to data compiled by Advertising Analytics exclusively for McClatchy. In Wisconsin, for instance, Hillary Clinton’s campaign and Democratic allies spent $2.8 million through mid-July in 2016, while pro-Biden forces have spent $9.6 million in the state so far in 2020. The largest amount of money has been poured into Pennsylvania, where Biden and Democratic-aligned groups have spent $17.3 million. Pro-Clinton groups had only spent $1.8 million there at this stage four years ago.
Meanwhile, Catanese reports that Republicans have invested five times more TV spending in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, all states President Donald Trump won in surprising fashion in 2016, compared to the last cycle.
Credit: Ben Weider/McClatchy
“The ad numbers also reveal the shifting calculations around the electoral map between 2016 and 2020,” Catanese notes. “Whereas the Clinton campaign had spent only a half a million dollars in Arizona up to this point in 2016,” Biden’s Democrtic network has “already plugged $3.3 million into the highly contested state, where polls show Biden with a slight lead.”
Road testing messages
Trump, unlike Biden, has also begun spending campaign cash on TV ads in Georgia. The president is heading to Atlanta today “to announce major changes to a decades-old federal policy that the White House said would speed the process for new transportation projects,” the Atlanta Journal Constitution’s Greg Bluestein and Tamar Hallerman report.
Bluestein also writes that Trump is “confronting a very different political reality” than when he last visited the area in March, with polls showing a tight race between the incumbent and Biden in a state Republicans have carried in every presidential election since 1996.
Trump’s trip comes on the heels of Vice President Mike Pence’s visit to Louisiana Tuesday, where he acknowledged that the spike in coronavirus cases in the state are “serious,” but still urged officials to reopen schools this fall, Sam Karlin and Jeff Adelson report for the Baton Rouge Advocate.
The Advocate noted that the “Trump administration offered few specifics on how it envisions schools reopening safely during the visit.” Pence did voice support for Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards’ statewide mask order, saying people should “wear a mask whenever state and local authorities say it’s indicated or whenever social distancing is not possible.”
As for Biden, he rolled out his $2 trillion climate plan during a speech in Wilmington, Del., Tuesday.
Sarah Gamard writes for the Delaware News Journal that the former vice president’s proposal, “which would create millions of new building and manufacturing jobs, is a direct challenge to … Trump. Infrastructure and a booming economy have been two centerpieces of Trump’s campaign, though the latter has suffered as tens of millions of Americans have filed for unemployment since the start of the coronavirus pandemic.”
Biden told a small group of reporters who were on hand: “When Donald Trump thinks about climate change, the only word he can muster is ‘hoax.’ When I think about climate change, the word I think of is ‘jobs.’”
Sunflower state surprise
Kansas Rep. Steve Watkins was charged Tuesday with three felonies and a misdemeanor related to an investigation into whether he illegally voted in a 2019 municipal election, Bryan Lowry reports for the Kansas City Star.
The charges were announced three weeks before the GOP primary in Kansas’ 2nd congressional district, and just shortly before Watkins was set to appear in a televised debate with his challengers, Jake LaTurner and Dennis Taylor. Watkins called the timing of the charges “hyper political” and “very suspicious.” He contended Shawnee County District Attorney Mike Kagay shares a consultant with one of his opponents.
“We’ve cooperated with the district attorney completely,” Watkins said. “I look forward to clearing my name.”
LaTurner’s campaign dismissed Watkins’ suggestion that Kagay’s decision to charge the congressman was intended to boost his campaign.
“Count us shocked that Steve Watkins has found someone else besides himself to blame for illegally voting and lying to a law enforcement officer,” said LaTurner spokeswoman Kara Zeyer.
Now, prosecutors allege Watkins lied to a Shawnee County Sheriff’s detective on February 10, court documents reveal. Lowry and Jonathan Shorman have more on the new details about the illegal voting case against Watkins.
Trail Mix
Election results
Air Force veteran MJ Hegar declared victory over state Sen. Royce West in the Democratic primary runoff for Senate in Texas, the Fort Worth-Star Telegram’s Tessa Weinberg reports. Hegar will square off with Republican Sen. John Coryn in November.
Former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville, who was backed by Trump, defeated former U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions in the GOP Senate primary runoff in Alabama, AL.com’s Mike Cason reports. Tuberville moves on to the general election against Sen. Doug Jones, the most vulnerable Democrat up for reelection this year.
In Texas’ 13th congressional district, another Trump-backed candidate, former White House physician Ronny Jackson, prevailed in his GOP primary, the Texas Tribune’s Abby Livingston reports. But the Republican primary in the state’s 23rd district between, Navy veteran Tony Gonzales, who Trump supported, and Air Force veteran Raul Reyes, who Sen. Ted Cruz endorsed, remains too close to call, the Texas Tribune’s Patrick Svitek notes.
State House Speaker Sara Gideon won the Democratic primary for Senate in Maine, and will now face off against GOP Sen. Susan Collins this fall, the Bangor Daily News’ Jessica Piper reports.
Convention watch
The Milwaukee Police Department has added pepper spray and a “tactical gas delivery system” to its shopping list ahead of the Democratic National Convention, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Bill Glauber and Alison Dirr report.
Jacksonville Mayor Lenny Curry said “tens of millions” of dollars have been raised ahead of the Republican National Convention, David Smiley writes for the Miami Herald.
Battle for Congress
Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell outraised her most likely Republican opponent, Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Gimenez, in Florida’s 26th district last quarter, Alex Daugherty reports for the Miami Herald.
The Wichita Eagle’s Jonathan Shorman has the details from the heated debate between the Republican candidates in Kansas’ 3rd district in Kansas who are vying to defeat Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids.
COVID update
- Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt became the first governor to test positive for COVID-19, the Tulsa World’s Barbara Hoberock reports.
Number of the Day
13
Biden leads Trump by 13 points, 53% to 40%, among registered voters in Pennsylvania, according to a new Monmouth University poll.
TOMORROW
A new episode of McClatchy’s Beyond the Bubble podcast will be available Thursday evening. Download (or catch up with previous episodes) here: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Stitcher | Google Podcasts
For Planning Purposes
July 15
Trump heads to Atlanta
Kamala Harris and St. Paul Mayor Melvin Carter will host a virtual Biden roundtable in Minnesota
Joe Biden holds a finance event and delivers virtual remarks to the Coalition of Black Trade Unionists’ convention
July 16
Jill Biden holds a virtual event in Reno, Nev.
John Kerry hosts a virtual Biden campaign roundtable in New Hampshire
The Biden campaign hosts a virtual event with the Progressive Change Campaign Committee and Elizabeth Warren
July 17
Jill Biden holds virtual events in Michigan and Colorado
Remaking a classic
The Late Show with Stephen Colbert put a “schools during the coronavirus spin” on ‘The Magic School Bus’ and I can’t look away.
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This story was originally published July 15, 2020 at 12:01 PM.