Democrats have spent six times more on TV ads in key Midwest states compared to 2016
Democrats have spent six times as much money on TV ads in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin this year than they had at the same point in 2016, a striking demonstration of the unparalleled importance of the three states in the 2020 presidential campaign.
Republicans have similarly invested significantly more in the trio of midwestern states that delivered the presidency to Donald Trump, devoting five times more TV spending to them over the last cycle.
In 2016, Hillary Clinton’s campaign and Democratic allies had spent $2.8 million in Wisconsin, $1.8 million in Pennsylvania and $1.7 million in Michigan on TV from January through the first two weeks of July, according to Advertising Analytics, which compiled the data exclusively for McClatchy.
In 2020, Joe Biden and Democratic-aligned groups have already spent $9.6 million in Wisconsin, $12.4 million in Michigan and $17.3 million in Pennsylvania.
The sheer number of groups spending in these battleground states has also exploded. Four years ago, there were just about a half dozen groups taking aim at Trump, including the Clinton campaign. This year, the number has ballooned to more than a dozen, with Democratic super PAC Priorities USA, serving as the leading player.
Pennsylvania is by far the top recipient of TV ad dollars by both parties so far, with Trump and conservative allies pumping in $13 million.
The ad numbers also reveal the shifting calculations around the electoral map between 2016 and 2020. Whereas the Clinton campaign had spent only a half a million dollars in Arizona up to this point in 2016, the Biden operation, Priorities and Vote Vets have together already plugged $3.3 million into the highly contested state, where polls show Biden with a slight lead.
At the same time, Democrats have spent considerably less on TV in both Florida and North Carolina this year, compared to 2016.
After Pennsylvania, the Trump campaign and its allies have invested the most on TV in Florida this year, tallying more than $11 million in ads, similar to its 2016 spending pattern. They’ve also easily led spending in North Carolina, placing $6.6 million on TV compared to just $1.5 million on the Democratic side.
There’s widespread agreement between strategists from both parties that the aforementioned six states will attract the most campaign activity and determine the winner of the election. But the Trump campaign has spent more than a million dollars in Ohio, Iowa and Georgia, and the Biden campaign announced Tuesday it would begin airing ads in Texas.
Trump and Biden forces are close to parity on digital ad spending, according to Advertising Analytics. Trump and aligned political action committees have totalled around $57 million compared to $55 million for Democrats.
A fully accurate comparison between 2020 and 2016 digital spending was unavailable because Advertising Analytics had not tracked all digital spending during the last cycle.
When including all TV ads across the country, Biden and Democrats have a slight lead, spending around $85 million compared to $81 million for Trump and GOP-affiliated groups.
Ben Wieder contributed.
