Is Trump doomed in November? What the president can do to turn the campaign tide
According to an almost unanimous array of public opinion polls and gleeful media accounts, President Donald Trump’s bid to extend his White House lease seems virtually doomed as of today.
Polls, of course, are not predictive. Ask Hillary Clinton. But a turbulent economy — and today’s 40-plus million unemployed easily qualifies as turbulent — has usually spelled disaster for elected incumbents seeking four more years. Ask George H.W. Bush, Jimmy Carter and before them, Herbert Hoover.
So how, in the dwindling 91 remaining campaign days, can President No. 45 avoid allowing Joe Biden to become President No. 46, the oldest man to occupy the office?
Biden is scheduled to seek a poll bounce this week by naming a female running mate, one who, given Biden’s age (he’ll be 78 by Inauguration Day), could quite possibly inherit the nation’s highest office.
To be sure, Trump was behind at this point in 2016 too and pulled off victory. He was fresh and new then with reassuring and confident promises of swamp-draining and change. He’s doggedly fulfilled many of those promises — tax cuts, ISIS-vanquishing, regulatory chopping, oil independence.
Yes, Trump’s a fighter. No one can deny that. But what was fresh and new 48 months ago when Clinton was the alternative now strikes many as needlessly turbulent and combative, thanks in part to bitter Democrats’ nonstop efforts to oust him and to Trump’s own often distracting behavior and angry, pointless tweets.
Trump’s strategy so far follows that of recent well-funded incumbents: During the election summer, define your opponent as a (choose one or several) rich, out of touch, inexperienced, insensitive, extreme, coarse, misogynistic, heartless pet owner who put his dog crate on the car roof.
Trump is seeking to define Biden as a China dove who’s beholden to his party’s far left, who supports tax increases on every American totaling $3.2 trillion in the coming years, and who wants to close all coal and natural-gas fired power plants, which currently produce 60% of the nation’s power. Oh, and also as a befuddled old man.
Biden does provide ample ammo for such charges. Asked on MSNBC what specifically he would do to address the COVID-19 crisis, the presumptive Democratic nominee said: “My message is that the president has to move more rapidly. You know, we know from experience that speed matters. We know that you can’t go too fast. It’s about going too slow.”
Now, here’s Trump’s hidden opportunity to come back: A recent Pew Research Center poll, echoed in others, revealed an overwhelming number of Biden supporters aren’t really voting to support him. Only one-third said their vote is for Biden. Two-thirds said they’re voting against Trump.
That’s a revealing lack of enthusiasm for the Democratic standard-bearer. So, going after him offers slim margins for growth in votes. They don’t really care that much about him, except he’s not Trump.
On the other hand, more than three-quarters of Trump supporters said their enthusiastic vote was for him. The remaining 24% said their vote was against Biden.
Perhaps, just perhaps, a less obstreperous president could moderate his own behavior a tad, counterpunch every other opportunity, pick a few less fights, tweet more judiciously, play the role of a standard president for a few months. Such a change might seem unlikely, since Trump believes that combativeness is what got him where he is.
But it’s not what’s likely to keep him there.
Trump wouldn’t have to admit any mistakes. That’s asking too much. The people who love Trump have proven they love him no matter what. But they were just barely enough four years ago against the worst presidential candidate in modern times. There’s no guarantee they’re all still on his side or will come out again.
Trump needs to use the allegedly amazing, high-tech ground game that his campaign and the Republican National Committee have built to attract a fair number of new supporters from independents and the no-shows of 2016. Turnout back then was 55.7% of eligible voters, and Trump got barely 46% of them, two points less than Clinton. That won’t be enough this time.
Trump can hope that in the three debates, starting Sept. 29, Biden comes across as foggy and addled while the incumbent appears assured and confident. But that cedes control to the fates and his opponent, a risky tactic especially for a man who does not like losing. Trump has lost in business many times but came back stronger and larger.
But that was business. This is national politics. And there would be no comeback in history from a Trump reelection loss.
This story was originally published August 4, 2020 at 6:00 AM with the headline "Is Trump doomed in November? What the president can do to turn the campaign tide."