‘He can be vice president’: Could Andy Beshear be a model for national Democrats?
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Kentucky 2023 Governor Race
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The ‘party of Andy’ goes all in for re-election. Is this a last stand for KY Democrats?
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For Cameron, a campaign for more than governor: Who will lead KY Republicans?
‘He can be vice president’: Could Andy Beshear be a model for national Democrats?
‘He would be a superstar.’ What the governor’s race means for Cameron’s national profile
When governors win a second term, they’re frequently thrust into a predictable political rite of passage: Speculation that a presidential run is in the offing.
As a white male and low-key moderate Democrat from a state otherwise dominated by Republicans, Andy Beshear isn’t expected to rocket to the top of many 2028 White House wish lists.
But if he’s successful in defeating Republican challenger Daniel Cameron on Nov. 7, he’s logically positioned to become a national archetype for Democratic success in outstate America.
And the dwindling middle-of-the-road influencers still inside the party hope a Beshear victory would earn him admission into the national conversation, if not on a future national ticket.
“Democrats are going to have to dig deep and not be beholden to the far left. To get elected and serve well, you really do have to be moderate, middle-of-the-road,” said Bev Perdue, the former Democratic governor of North Carolina, who went to college at the University of Kentucky.
“I do think he can be vice president,” she said of Beshear.
Beshear’s campaign won’t even entertain the question, for good reason.
While incumbency and job performance make the governor a slight favorite for re-election this fall, his team is under no illusions about the natural political architecture of Kentucky, in which Rand Paul won re-election by 24 points last year and Donald Trump romped by 26 points in 2020.
“It’s always going to be a tough race for a Democrat in a red state like Kentucky or Kansas,” said Gov. Laura Kelly of Kansas, vice chair of the Democratic Governors Association, which has pledged to invest $17 million in Beshear’s re-election.
Beshear’s own victory margin in 2019 was only 5,086 votes, less than half a percentage point over the polarizing Matt Bevin. The Beshear campaign believes it has had an optimal summer, increasing its lead over Cameron to the mid-single digits, but the assumption on both sides is that the final margin will close.
“Andy’s lead has grown and Daniel Cameron’s favorability is now under water. It’s like, good job folks,” said Eric Hyers, Beshear’s campaign manager.
Thus far, Beshear has emphasized breakfast table issues with wide appeal: a budget surplus, infrastructure, internet and water projects and a proposal to raise educators’ pay by 11%.
The culture wars
But the campaign is preparing for a grind through the fall and zoning in on an issue that they believe will place Cameron on the defensive: abortion.
The anti-abortion Cameron does not support exceptions for rape or incest victims and Beshear’s team is planning to assail that position as extremist. Given last year’s rejection of a state constitutional amendment designed to limit abortion access, Democrats view Cameron’s position as an Achilles heel that could severely harm him with suburban women. Just before Labor Day, the campaign unleashed a TV advertisement featuring a female prosecutor declaring that “Daniel Cameron thinks a nine-year-old rape survivor should be forced to give birth.”
“I never thought I’d say this as a Democratic operative in the state of Kentucky, but I think it’s a winning message to run on pro-women’s health and choice in the state,” said Jared Smith, who ran Beshear’s campaign for attorney general. “The abortion referendum was voted down by the public and our current law is so barbaric. I can guarantee you a ton of Republican women voted down that abortion amendment.”
The cultural issue Beshear will have to navigate is the issue of transgender surgery and his veto of legislation banning such procedures for children. A direct-to-camera ad by Beshear in July declaring he’s never supported gender reassignment surgery for kids was the strongest signal the Beshear campaign viewed the attack as a serious vulnerability.
The Beshear campaign did not make the governor available for an interview for this article.
Beshear’s future
Beshear is seen as the last talented politician in the Kentucky Democratic Party’s stable, surfing the goodwill around his father’s name and building on it by showing compassion during natural disasters and remaining laser-focused on political decisions that impact people’s lives.
“When you don’t have clean running water and you get it, it’s a big deal. When the bridge a mile from your house is in disrepair and it gets fixed, that matters,” said Hyers.
Trey Grayson, the former Republican secretary of state who ran unsuccessfully for U.S. Senate, said while his barber is an avid supporter of Donald Trump, he’s also fond of Beshear.
“During Covid, the governor made sure that barbers got unemployment easily and so he’s appreciative. He told me, ‘I kinda like that guy,’” Grayson said, referring to the governor.
It’s unclear whether that type of pragmatic effectiveness matters much any more on a national stage that rewards assertive hardcore ideology and viral charisma.
But no matter the margin, a Beshear victory would resonate far beyond Kentucky, with some Democrats bound to claim it’s indicative of a broader mood that’s favorable to President Joe Biden.
Beshear’s 2019 win preceded Biden’s 2020 defeat of Trump; Bevin’s 2015 victory teed up Trump’s 2016 upset of Hillary Clinton.
Without having to face Kentucky voters again, a second term would allow the 45-year-old Beshear to test the national waters. Some wonder whether it would embolden him to move to the left on policy.
“Beshear is closer to Gavin Newsom philosophically than he is Ron DeSantis,” said Damon Thayer, the Republican majority leader of the state Senate. “I know the Beshears are classic liberals trying to define themselves as quaint little southern Democrats.”
But there’s little question that the transition from a constituent-focused governor to a leader pitching a national message would present new pressures and challenges.
“He should be in that conversation, now whether he wants to be in that conversation is a different question,” said Jim Hodges, the former Democratic governor of South Carolina who was friends with former Gov. Steve Beshear. “In the [current] Democratic Party … candidates look at selection of VPs through constituency groups.”
One way Beshear could earn considerable national limelight is if Mitch McConnell resigns his seat and the governor is tasked with picking his Senate replacement before a special election is held.
Current Kentucky law dictates Beshear would need to select a Republican from a slate chosen by the state GOP’s executive committee, but allies of the governor doubt he would adhere to such a legally unvetted order.
“He should ignore the law and appoint whomever he wants,” said John Yarmuth, the former Democratic congressman representing Louisville. “The Senate is the sole judge of who qualifies to sit in that body. He should appoint a Democrat and fight it out in court.”
His team already has drawn up a plan for a fight that would engulf not only both parties’ in Kentucky but a flurry of national partisan interests.
But first they have to win the fight they know is in front of them.
“Folks around the country may be looking at this race to portend stuff about the future, but Andy Beshear will remain laser focused about delivering for the people of Kentucky,” said Hyers.
