How will the coronavirus affect crime rates? It’s complicated, experts say

As many Americans lose their jobs and are forced to stay at home during the coronavirus pandemic, a question arises: Will more people commit crimes?

Not necessarily, experts say.

In fact, some news outlets across the United States are reporting a drop in crime. Indiana State Police said they are “seeing fewer arrests due to isolation,” according to WTHI.

“We are seeing less crime right now. The focus has shifted. They’re taking care of themselves and not going out and committing crimes,” Sgt. Matt Ames told the station.

But while some law enforcement agencies make fewer arrests, criminals haven’t completely gone away amid the coronavirus pandemic, Richard McCleary, professor of criminology at the University of California-Irvine, told McClatchy News. They just don’t have as many opportunities.

Crime depends on three things, McCleary said: opportunity, motivation and “the absence of a capable guardian.”

With so many people hunkered down at home and off the streets, there are fewer easy targets, he said. And houses are less-desirable targets when they’re occupied.

Even businesses are likely safer, “because they’re closed, they’re locked up, they’re alarmed,” McCleary said.

He predicts a drop in burglaries, street crimes, auto thefts, larceny and aggravated assault.

James Lynch, a criminology professor at the University of Maryland, agrees.

“In general, I would bet that the opportunity for crime will decline but the motivation for crime will increase,” Lynch told McClatchy News.

Financial experts predict the United States could be headed into a recession as businesses close to slow the spread of COVID-19. Applications for unemployment benefits have skyrocketed the across the country.

Although criminal “motivation” is currently outweighed by a lack of “opportunity,” that balance hinges, at least in part, on income stability in the weeks and months ahead. If money problems get too intense, desperation can become motivation.

“Some of this will depend on the effectiveness of remedial measures in terms of income stability,” Lynch said. “The more effective these measures the lower the increase in motivation.”

McCleary said he isn’t sure a recession would spell an uptick in illegal activity.

“Personally, I have never seen a strong relationship between crime as we ordinarily understand it and, say, unemployment,” he said.

The relationship between recession and crime is still debated. A 2011 report from City-Journal points to lower levels of lawbreaking during the Great Recession. The FBI reported an 8% drop in robberies and a 17% drop in auto thefts in 2009, according to the publication.

Meanwhile, a 2018 MIT-published study argues that “recessions can produce career criminals.”

“There is growing evidence that workers who first join the labor market during economic downturns suffer from poor job matches that can have sustained detrimental effects on wages and career progressions,” according to the study.

Abuse, scams could increase

While property crimes might drop, McCleary said he expects spousal and child abuse will increase.

Calls to the Illinois Department of Children and Family Services’ abuse and neglect hotline have “dropped dramatically,” ProPublica reported Tuesday.

McCleary said homeless people could also become easy targets.

“Of course we have no way of counting those victims,” he said, adding: “They’re very unlikely to report it.”

And scammers won’t be squeamish about using the pandemic to their advantage, experts say. Older residents are especially at risk.

“Scam artists calling up and offering to sell them protection, or offering to go down and do their shopping, cash in advance, that sort of thing,” McCleary said.

This story was originally published March 25, 2020 at 12:11 PM with the headline "How will the coronavirus affect crime rates? It’s complicated, experts say."