Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, Donald Trump, Ben Carson and six others would be in the first Republican presidential debate next month, while two governors, a U.S. senator and the 2012 Iowa Republican caucus winner would be out, according to a survey by NBC News’ political unit.
The debate will feature 10 participants who have to meet a series of criteria. At the moment, according to NBC’s calculations, Ohio Gov. John Kasich, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, former business executive Carly Fiorina, 2012 Iowa winner Rick Santorum and Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., would not qualify for the main event. They’d participate in a separate forum earlier in the day.
To be included in the debate, to be held in Cleveland from 9 to 11 p.m. August 6, the guidelines state a candidate “must place in the top 10 of an average of the five most recent national polls, as recognized by FOX News leading up to August 4th at 5 PM/ET. Such polling must be conducted by major, nationally recognized organizations that use standard methodological techniques.” If there are ties, more than 10 could participate.
The polling “must be conducted by major, nationally recognized organizations that use standard methodological techniques,” Fox said. Fox and Facebook are presenting the debate.
NBC averaged polls from Fox, CNN, NBC/Wall Street Journal and Monmouth, and found the top 10 was as follows:
Jeb Bush 15.4 percent
Scott Walker 10.8 percent.
Ben Carson 10 percent.
Marco Rubio 8.8 percent.
Rand Paul 7.6 percent.
Mike Huckabee 7.4 percent.
Donald Trump 6 percent.
Ted Cruz 4.8 percent.
Rick Perry 3.8 percent.
Chris Christie 3.6 percent.
Then come the rest, who will debate at a separate forum earlier in the day August 6.
They include Santorum, 2.2 percent; Fiorina, 2 percent; Kasich, 1.6 percent; Graham, 1.4 percent and Jindal, 1.2 percent.