The 14th day of Donald Trump’s second presidential term looked like it posed an existential threat to an essential Kentucky industry.

A sign inside a Canadian liquor store that hung near its supply of Kentucky bourbon instructed customers to “Buy Canadian Instead,” a result of the long-promised retaliatory tariffs instigated by Trump.

“What we saw from Canada and from some of its leaders, they were going to pull down all of those products,” Gov. Andy Beshear said on CNN. “It was a direct threat, which was already starting to hit the bourbon industry in Kentucky.”

Fortunately for the $9 billion Kentucky industry responsible for 23,000 jobs, the threat was fleeting, lasting only a few hours. Trump decided to pause the tariffs for a month as both Canada and Mexico agreed to enhance border security efforts, a prized concession for a president looking for any chance to crow about a win.

A reprieve was granted — for now.

Drastic action followed by a cloud of confusion, instability and questions: That’s how many Kentuckians have experienced the first three weeks of Trump’s whirlwind return to the White House.

The president’s raft of executive actions at breakneck speed have covered various facets of life, including education, law enforcement and trade. And yet many of those ostensibly impacted by the decisions are still trying to figure out the exact meaning beyond the rhetorical bluster.

“The irony is, the first state that reported for Trump on election night could be at the tip of the spear for negative-based impact,” said Adam Edelen, a businessman and former Democratic Kentucky auditor.

The Trump tariff bluff

No action posed a bigger challenge to Kentucky businesses than Trump’s announcement of 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada. Both countries promised they would enact their own tariffs on U.S. products if the president went through with his plan.

Beyond bourbon, Kentucky aerospace to automobile companies faced the real prospect of their bottom lines taking a hit. As the third-largest car manufacturer in the U.S., Kentucky companies source many of their parts — engines, transmission systems and electronics — from Canada and Mexico.

The temporary deal hatched by Trump allowed for a sigh of relief, but the key word is temporary, according to Edelen. Will Trump tee up more tariffs in March if Mexico and Canada refuse to bend to further demands?

“I think there’s a lot of trepidation. They’re already baking in some negative impact from protectionism into their business plans,” said Edelen, who has spoken to affected businesspeople. “No question this is fertile MAGA land here.

“I think a lot of people think he’s operating in their best interests … But I think everybody’s taking the posture of, ‘How bad is it going to get?’”

In the CNN interview, Beshear said the tariffs will hurt not just Kentuckians, but all Americans, whether they start in one month or one year.

“And the idea that we’d be dealing with this every single month, that’s going to create instability not just in the bourbon industry, but across all of our industries,” Beshear said.

U.S. Rep. Andy Barr, Republican representing the Lexington area in Congress, indicated he had conversations with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Howard Lutnick, Trump’s designee for Commerce Secretary, on the tariff issue, but conveyed support for the president’s confrontational approach.

“Mexico has already engaged in negotiations, agreeing to secure their side of the border, demonstrating the effectiveness of President Trump’s approach,” Barr said.

Multiple distilleries contacted by The Herald-Leader declined to comment, indicating their desire to stay out of Trump’s crosshairs.

Republicans contend that Beshear and other Democrats were fear-mongering about the future instead of accepting the reality: No tariffs had been levied.

“There were no tariffs. And you had all these Democrats like Andy out there still trying to act as though there were,” said Republican commentator Scott Jennings, a Kentucky native. “They really had a hard time recalibrating. They couldn’t just give Trump the win. It was a win.”

DEI, DOE and school choice

Trump ordered several federal agencies, including the Department of Education, to remove reports, materials and guidance documents that mentioned diversity, equity and inclusion efforts, attempting to make good on his campaign promise to rid the country of DEI.

The Kentucky legislature targeted DEI initiatives during the 2024 General Assembly, but failed to pass a bill before the end of session. Republicans are expected to revive that effort now that they’re back in Frankfort for the 2025 session.

University of Kentucky President Eli Capilouto acknowledged the potential for “uncertainty — and understandably, anxiety” about significant changes from Washington. A judge stepped in to block Trump’s move to cut off the federal spending spigot.

Missouri State University ended its DEI program to align with the orders, and Rutgers University in New Jersey canceled a conference on Historically Black Colleges and Universities.

But UK has been noticeably vague about the impact of the DEI rollback, simply stating that it is analyzing how the orders could impact federal grants and research contracts.

“We are still in the process of that assessment. I don’t have anything to report from that at this time,” Jay Blanton, a spokesman for the university, told The Herald-Leader.

What education leaders are more focused on is Trump’s desire to eliminate the Department of Education altogether, an idea long championed by Northern Kentucky GOP U.S. Rep. Thomas Massie.

Kentucky receives more than $1 billion of federal education grants annually, helping to fund school meals and assist children with disabilities and students from low-income families.

“Because federal funding is especially targeted to kids with the greatest needs, it is most important in higher-poverty districts, most of which are rural in Kentucky,” according to a report by the Kentucky Center for Economic Policy. “In 2023, federal funding made up 20% of all districts’ budgets but 52% of the budget in Fulton Independent, 45% in Middlesboro Independent, and 44% in Owsley County.”

Republicans argue that dismantling the DOE would simply send the money back to states and local communities, which are best positioned to shape the curriculum and allocate resources.

Massie’s legislation is just a single line: “The Department of Education shall terminate on Dec. 31, 2026.”

Whether his bill will get a hearing in 2025 remains to be seen.

Ironically, a Trump executive order showing support for school choice by directing the Department of Education — which the president wants to eradicate — to develop guidance for how states might use federal funds to expand education options.

But even school choice advocates curbed their expectations on the order’s reach.

“It does not appear from the wording of the order that states can be forced to adopt school choice policies or lose their federal education funding, something that would be necessary to implement large-scale school choice in Kentucky, given the state courts’ and the education establishment’s insistence on denying families such options,” wrote Gary Houchens, a professor of education at Western Kentucky University.

Kentucky voters overwhelmingly rejected a constitutional amendment in November that would have allowed lawmakers to fund non-public education, like charter, private and religious schools. The amendment lost in all 120 counties.

Consent decrees and police power

Under Trump, the Justice Department has halted consent decrees finalized in the last 90 days of the Biden administration, which means that the legally binding five-year agreement impacting the Louisville Metro Police Department is on hold.

The directive to stop civil rights cases means that such cases are in a holding pattern, likely up to the discretion of new Attorney General Pam Bondi.

During Trump’s first term, then-Attorney General Jeff Sessions described consent decrees as “an end run around the democratic process,” and Trump claims they reduce officers’ power and compromise public safety.

But civil rights groups complained that Trump’s actions will reverse progress on civil rights and make tenuous situations more dangerous.

“This includes taking the country back on criminal justice reform by advancing the federal death penalty and eliminating an executive order on policing that was created with input from law enforcement and communities to advance common-sense reforms like banning chokeholds and no-knock warrants,” said Demelza Baer, a spokeswoman for the Lawyers’ Committee for Civil Rights Under Law.

No-knock warrants became a focal point of reform in Kentucky and beyond following the fatal Louisville police shooting of Breonna Taylor, a 26-year-old Black woman, in her apartment in 2020. Police secured a warrant with a no-knock clause before ultimately breaking down her apartment door just before 1 a.m.

Taylor’s death was one of the driving factors for the DOJ probe into Louisville’s troubled police department.

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Oust Kristi Noem, say Padilla and Schiff. But that’s going to be tough to do

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