Impact2020: November 4, 2020
We expected a wild election night and it delivered. In this Impact2020 briefing, we take a look at where the biggest races in the land stand and the legal battles ahead.
On the Ground
The waiting game
President Donald Trump and Joe Biden are “locked in razor-thin races in a slate of battleground states that were expected to continue tallying votes into Wednesday and possibly beyond,” report McClatchy’s Alex Roarty and David Catanese.
The Associated Press had yet to call the contests in Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as of this morning as election officials dealt with unprecedented sums of absentee ballots.
Roarty and Catanese write that Biden not appearing to be the immediate victor was “a deep disappointment to Democrats” that will “bolster Republican arguments that Trump was never as big an underdog as was widely believed, even as his path to re-election remained narrow.”
They also note while the results won’t create “the blue wave that Democrats were increasingly hoping for” it “will not prove to be a red wave, either.” In Florida, Iowa and Ohio, polls suggested a tight race heading into Election Day, but Trump ended up winning all three rather comfortably.
But Biden could still end up with a significant victory in the Electoral College. It might just take days to know. McClatchy’s Bailey Aldridge reports that Michigan and Wisconsin officials expect the bulk of their counts to be completed later Wednesday, while the count is expected to be done in Pennsylvania on Friday.
Credit: Mary Altaffer, AP
In North Carolina, about 117,000 outstanding absentee ballots remain, but it’s not certain how many of them were cast, Josh Shaffer and Chip Alexander write for the Raleigh News & Observer.
In Georgia, there are at least 236,000 absentee ballots that haven’t been tallied, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution team notes. Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger said he expects most of that count to be completed today.
And in Nevada, Secretary of State Barbara Cegavske said more of the state’s results won’t be reported until Thursday morning, Anjeanette Damon reports for the Reno Gazette Journal.
See you in court
Whatever happens, legal battles are sure to ensue.
As Trump himself promised to take the fight to the U.S. Supreme Court, “Republicans activated a massive network of attorneys in battleground states crucial to the outcome of the 2020 presidential election, hoping to thwart the counting of thousands of early and absentee ballots,” McClatchy’s Michael Wilner reports.
RNC and Trump campaign officials said “the scenario unfolding with a handful of Rust Belt and Southwestern states deciding the presidency was exactly what they had been preparing for over the course of a year,” Wilner writes.
Republican attorneys have already laid the groundwork in several states including Pennsylvania and Nevada, where lawsuits were filed throughout the day on Tuesday. More filings are expected, and the RNC has committed to spending at least $20 million on legal efforts.
Where the Battle for Congress stands
The GOP appeared likely to cling to its majority in the Senate Wednesday, as incumbents in red-leaning states managed to easily fend off Democratic challengers.
The AP declared Sens. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, Lindsay Graham of South Carolina, Joni Ernst of Iowa, John Cornyn of Texas and Steve Daines of Montana winners Tuesday night. Republican Roger Marshall also prevailed in Kansas. Races in Maine and North Carolina remained uncalled, but GOP Sens. Susan Collins and Thom Tillis held leads in their respective states.
Brian Murphy reports for the Raleigh News & Observer that Tillis declared victory in North Carolina, but that his opponent, Democrat Cal Cunningham, has not conceded.
In Georgia, GOP Sen. Kelly Loeffler is headed to a January runoff with Democrat Raphael Warnock, Caleb Slinkard writes for the Macon Telegraph. The state’s other Senate race between Republican Sen. David Perdue and Democrat Jon Ossoff has yet to be called, but Perdue held the edge Wednesday morning.
Meanwhile, Democrats flipped GOP-held Senate seats in Arizona and Colorado, while losing one in Alabama, according to the AP.
And as for the House of Representatives, Democrats were expected to retain their majority even as they lost seats. Two of those loses came in the Miami area: Republican Carlos Gimenez defeated Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in Florida’s 26th district and Republican Maria Elvira Salazar defeated Democratic Rep. Donna Shalala in the state’s 27th district, Alex Daugherty reports for the Miami Herald.
In South Carolina’s 1st district, Republican Nancy Mace beat Democratic Rep. Joe Cunningham, Caitlin Byrd reports for The State.
Trail Mix
The Miami Herald’s David Smiley examines how Hispanic voters in Miami-Dade County helped Trump carry Florida.
Ronald J. Hansen and Yvonne Wingett Sanchez have all the details on Democrats turning Arizona blue on election night for the Arizona Republic.
But Democrats’ hopes of doing the same in Texas once again fell short. Emma Platoff walks us through how that happened up and down the ballot in the Texas Tribune.
Trump won 81 of Ohio’s 88 counties, Rich Exner reports for Cleveland.com.
If Biden and Trump stay within one percentage point of each other in Wisconsin, the race in the state could go to a recount, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Patrick Marley writes.
The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Justine McDaniel and Jonathan Lai report that Pennsylvania’s pandemic election went “remarkably smoothly” despite concerns.
Stephanie Byers could become Kansas’ first openly transgender state lawmaker, the Wichita Eagle’s Denise Neil reports.
Number of the Day
238
That’s how many electoral votes Biden had as of Wednesday morning. Trump had 213. 270 are needed to win.
Sweet ride
Credit: LA County Sheriffs
Los Angeles County, California transported its ballot boxes via helicopter for counting after polls closed last night.
TOMORROW
The Beyond the Bubble podcast team will be back to discuss where the races stand with a new episode available on: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Stitcher | Google Podcasts.
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This story was originally published November 4, 2020 at 11:41 AM.