Impact2020: October 27, 2020
It’s just one week until Election Day! In today’s Impact2020 briefing, we take a look at why Democrats are feeling good about their chances in Georgia, how Kamala Harris is focusing on energizing Black voters in battleground states, and the avalanche of ballots cast in North Carolina.
On the Ground
Georgia in play
Joe Biden visiting Georgia a week before Election Day “is the most serious sign yet that this southern state is on the cusp of slipping away from Republicans,” McClatchy’s David Catanese reports.
Even before key elected officials, including Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, urged the Biden campaign to invest more resources in the state, “Democrats on the ground had been growing increasingly confident that Georgia, which no Democratic presidential nominee has won since 1992, could produce the surprise of the 2020 election,” Catanese writes.
“It is Indiana 2008,” said a senior Biden strategist working on Georgia, referring to Barack Obama’s narrow upset in a red state 12 years ago. “There wasn’t a big belief in headquarters that it could be done. Had to push the campaign to do it, but now here we are.”
Biden’s strength in the state is not necessarily due to his own campaign operation, which has a smaller footprint and got off to a later start that President Donald Trump’s campaign. Rather, a network of local activists and party officials “have taken matters into their own hands since suffering narrow losses in high-profile races in 2017 and 2018.”
Those efforts will be critical in suburban areas like Gwinnett County, where Democrats are hoping to eclipse the 57% of the vote Stacey Abrams earned in the 2018 governor’s race. Catanese reports that a recent internal poll that placed the party’s candidate for county commissioner chair at 62% has provided local Democrats with a sense of optimism.
Harris’s swing state impact
Kamala Harris’ most recent campaign stops show she’s pushing hard to drive up turnout among Black Americans, “and voters and analysts see evidence that the first woman of color on a major party presidential ticket could make a difference in some of the nations’ most closely-contested swing states,” David Lightman and Joe Kovac Jr. report for the Macon Telegraph.
Credit: John Amis, AP
Black voters say they appreciate the history they’re witnessing as the California senator, the daughter of Indian and Jamaican immigrants, is appearing more frequently in front of them.
“The opportunity that Black women, who are arguably the Democratic Party’s most loyal electorate, have had to see themselves reflected within Biden’s campaign is powerful,” said Rashad Robinson, president of Color of Change, an online organization which advocates for racial justice.
Harris’ push could make the difference in battleground states like Georgia, where 30% of the electorate was Black in 2016. The VP pick “adds a sense of history, particularly in a state where Blacks have long faced obstacles casting ballots,” and “unquestionably stirs excitement” among younger Black voters, Lightman and Kovac Jr. write.
NC voters show up
In North Carolina, voters have cast nearly 3.2 million absentee ballots, already eclipsing the total submitted during the entire 2016 election, Will Doran reports for the Raleigh News & Observer.
That number includes ballots that were cast by mail and in-person at early voting locations, which remain open this week. “Nearly 780,000 North Carolinians have mailed in their ballots, and another 650,000 have requested mail-in ballots but have not yet sent them back.”
Doran reports that young voters and unaffiliated voters, who also skew younger and more Democratic, have been major contributors to the uptick in absentee voting. “Across the state, nearly 205,000 people ages 18-29 cast their early ballots as of Oct. 21,” Doran writes. “As of Sunday, unaffiliated voters had already cast 12% more absentee ballots than they did in all of 2016.”
Trail Mix
Battleground state watch
The U.S. Supreme Court upheld Wisconsin’s voting laws, meaning that “absentee ballots will be counted only if they are in the hands of municipal clerks by the time polls close on Nov. 3,” Patrick Marley reports for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
Michael Bloomberg is funding a last-minute $15 million statewide ad blitz to benefit Biden in Texas and Ohio, the Texas Tribune’s Alex Samuels writes.
In Michigan, 2.1 million of the 3.1 million voters who requested absentee ballots have returned them, Dave Boucher reports for the Detroit Free Press.
The office of the Director of National Intelligence “turned down the Florida congressional delegation’s request to be briefed on the claim that foreign governments have targeted voters to sow disinformation in the upcoming election, including through hundreds of emails sent to Florida voters last week,” Ana Ceballos reports for the Miami Herald.
After Colombian politicians offered messages of support on social media for Republican candidates in Florida from Trump to Miami-Dade mayoral candidate Steve Bovo, the U.S. ambassador in Bogotá said they should stay out of U.S. elections, Alex Daugherty, Michael Wilner and Bianca Padró Ocasio write for the Miami Herald.
A grand jury in Cleveland “indicted right-wing political hoaxers Jacob Wohl and Jack Burkman with felony charges connected to a multi-state robocall campaign that prosecutors say was meant to scare voters in urban areas with large minority populations out of voting by mail,” Cory Shaffer reports for Cleveland.com.
Battle for Congress
South Carolina Democratic Senate candidate Jaime Harrison is getting some help from Common and Charlamagne tha God in his bid to unseat Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham. The State’s Joseph Bustos has more.
The 2020 race in North Carolina’s 9th congressional district is calmer than the 2019 special election, but shifting sands may still make it competitive, Austin Weinstein reports for the Charlotte Observer.
Weinstein also reports that Congressional Leadership Fund, a leading GOP super PAC, is making a late ad buy of $2 million to boost GOP Rep. Richard Hudson in North Carolina’s 8th district, which Trump carried by 9 points in 2016.
Number of the Day
66 million
That’s how many Americans have already voted one week out from Election Day, according to the U.S. Elections Project.
Sort fact from fiction
Credit: The Kansas City Star
The Kansas City Star is hosting a virtual event on Thursday assessing the impact that election disinformation is having on our politics. Register here.
Tune In
On the latest episode of the Beyond the Bubble podcast, the crew breaks down the paths Biden and Trump have to reach 270 votes in the Electoral College. Download and subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Stitcher | Google Podcasts.
For Planning Purposes
Oct. 27
President Donald Trump visits Michigan, Wisconsin and Nebraska
Joe Biden travels to Georgia
Vice President Pence heads to North Carolina and South Carolina
Kamala Harris visits Nevada
Barack Obama campaigns in Florida
Oct. 28
Trump travels to Arizona and Nevada
Pence campaigns in Michigan and Wisconsin
Harris visits Arizona
Oct. 29
Biden visits Florida
Pence travels to Iowa and Nevada
Oct. 30
Biden visits Iowa and Wisconsin
Harris travels to Texas
Oct. 31
Biden visits Michigan
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This story was originally published October 27, 2020 at 12:19 PM.