Impact2020: October 26, 2020
In today’s Impact2020 briefing, we take a look at why foreign allies are having trouble getting in touch with Joe Biden’s team, why the two campaigns see the state of play in Texas very differently, and a voting discrepancy in Florida.
On the Ground
Transition prep
With Joe Biden leading in the national and battleground state polls, McClatchy’s Michael Wilner reports that foreign allies are quietly asking the Democratic nominee’s team: Who do we call if you win?
They’re asking “quietly” because “the Biden campaign had implemented a strict policy prohibiting campaign staff from communicating with foreign officials and diplomats, eager to avoid a repeat of the fallout from the 2016 election that has haunted President Donald Trump ever since,” Wilner writes, referencing the contacts between Trump campaign associates and foreign officials that drew scrutiny from law enforcement and anti-corruption watchdogs.
In the past it’s been relatively common for foreign policy advisers of a presidential candidate to communicate with allied governments, allowing them to build relationships early and share their policy plans. But multiple diplomats from European, Latin American and Middle Eastern nations, told McClatchy that the Biden rule has made them resort to secondary channels.
“One diplomat mentioned Democratic Sen. Chris Coons of Delaware, a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and a close ally of Biden, who also had been a Delaware senator and committee chairman, as a liaison between foreign officials and the Biden orbit,” Wilner reports.
But an aide said the senator’s interactions with foreign officials were not related to Biden’s campaign. “While top Democrats like Coons have been accessible to explain the thinking of Biden’s foreign policy team, foreign officials say they would still prefer the opportunity to have direct informal contact with the team itself,” Wilner notes.
The heart of Texas
After local Democrats pleaded with the Biden campaign to focus more on Texas, a traditional Republican stronghold that polls have suggested is competitive, Kamala Harris is set to travel to the state this week, Alex Samuels reports for the Texas Tribune.
“Harris will be the highest-profile representative of the Biden campaign to visit Texas in person during the general election, though his campaign was already set to spend millions of dollars on TV ads in Texas,” Samuels writes.
While Biden himself has not been to Texas, his wife Jill campaigned in El Paso, Dallas and Houston earlier this month.
Credit: Andrew Harnik, AP
Trump’s team, however, doesn’t appear to be worried about losing the state. Trump campaign spokesman Tim Murtaugh and Rick Perry, the former Secretary of Energy and Texas governor, said the president would not visit the state ahead of Election Day.
Trump “will be in battleground states,” Perry said. “Texas is not a battleground state.”
The latest polls in Texas have been a mixed bag: A University of Houston survey showed Trump leading by 5, a Dallas Morning News poll found Biden up 3, and a Quinnipiac University survey had a tied race.
Through Oct. 24, 7.2 million Texans, accounting for more than 42% of the state’s registered voters, had already cast their ballots, according to the Texas Tribune.
A disparity in Florida
The Miami Herald’s Aaron Leibowitz spotlights an important voting issue in Florida: “The rates at which mail-in ballots cast by Black, Hispanic or young voters in Florida are being flagged for possible rejection in the Nov. 3 election are substantially higher than among voters overall, according to data analyzed and provided to the Miami Herald by Dan Smith, a political science professor and elections expert at the University of Florida.”
So far in Florida, 0.37% of white voters, 0.97% of Black voters and 1.01% of Hispanic voters have had their mail ballots flagged by elections offices for missing or mismatched signatures and other problems. “In other words, Hispanic voters in Florida have been 2.7 times more likely than white voters to have their ballots flagged,” Leibowitz writes.
Smith said the disparities are similar to what he has found in past elections. “Voters who aren’t familiar with the vote-by-mail process are far more likely to forget to sign their ballots or commit another error that causes their vote not to count,” Leibowitz notes.
Trail Mix
Battleground state watch
The Arizona Republic’s Daniel Gonzalez and Rafael Carranza examine whether Trump delivered on his immigration and border promises from four years ago.
The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Jonathan Tamari has an in-depth tour of five key counties in Pennsylvania that show why the state is so divided.
Biden and Trump are courting Nevada’s growing Asian American and Pacific Islander communities, Megan Messerly reports for the Nevada Independent.
Barack Obama told Democrats during his swing through Florida over the weekend that “If you bring Florida home, this thing’s over.” The Miami Herald’s Alex Daugherty, David Smiley and Bianca Padró Ocasio have more.
“Election clerks asked the state Supreme Court on Monday to issue an order that will allow them to make sure all votes are counted despite a misprint on tens of thousands of ballots in northeastern Wisconsin,” the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Patrick Marley reports.
Even as members of his orbit have tested positive for COVID-19, Vice President Mike Pence is forging ahead with his campaign trail travel, Don Sweeney and Bailey Aldridge report for McClatchy.
Battle for Congress
Brian Murphy wrote two deep-dive profiles on North Carolina’s U.S. Senate candidates, Republican Sen. Thom Tillis and Democrat Cal Cunningham, for the Raleigh News & Observer.
South Carolina Democrat Jaime Harrison has now raised more than $100 million for his campaign against GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham, The State’s Joseph Bustos reports.
The Kansas City Star’s Bryan Lowry and Jonathan Shorman review some of Barbara Bollier’s most important votes as a state lawmaker, and what they might suggest about how the Democratic candidate would vote if elected to the U.S. Senate.
Number of the Day
1
Biden leads Trump by 1 point, 47% to 46%, in Georgia, according to the latest Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll.
Tune In
On the latest episode of the Beyond the Bubble podcast, the crew breaks down the paths Biden and Trump have to reach 270 votes in the Electoral College. Download and subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Stitcher | Google Podcasts.
Doubling up on the masks
Credit: Mayor Lori Lightfoot
Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot teamed up with her wife to deliver this Halloween safety message.
For Planning Purposes
Oct. 26
President Donald Trump campaigns in Pennsylvania
Vice President Mike Pence travels to Minnesota
Oct. 27
Trump visits Michigan, Wisconsin and Nebraska
Joe Biden travels to Georgia
Pence heads to North Carolina and South Carolina
Kamala Harris visits Nevada
Barack Obama campaigns in Florida
Oct. 28
Trump travels to Arizona and Nevada
Harris visits Arizona
Pence campaigns in Michigan and Wisconsin
Oct. 29
Biden visits Florida
Pence travels to Iowa and Nevada
Oct. 30
Harris travels to Texas
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This story was originally published October 26, 2020 at 12:29 PM.