Impact2020: October 23, 2020

In today’s Impact2020 briefing, we take a look at why Joe Biden’s campaign is heartened by the Jewish vote thus far in Florida, the latest on the threatening emails to voters U.S. officials say came from Iran, and whether the final debate did anything to change the trajectory of the race.

On the Ground

A bright spot for Biden in FL

Joe Biden’s campaign is growing more confident about their chances in Florida as they see signs that Jewish voters in the state are turning out to vote in large numbers, Michael Wilner, David Smiley and Karina Elwood report for the Miami Herald.

“Based on recent polling, mail-in ballot returns and early voting numbers in South Florida’s largest Jewish communities, Biden campaign officials are increasingly optimistic they will outperform … Hillary Clinton with this voting bloc,” they write.

“Even a marginal shift among Jewish voters, who make up roughly 5% of Florida’s electorate, could tip the balance” in a close race. Rep. Lois Frankel, a Democrat representing much of Palm Beach and West Palm Beach, said that turnout was already “through the roof” in her district, which is over 15% Jewish.

Credit: Wilfredo Lee, AP

A poll released this week found Biden performing better among Florida Jewish voters than Clinton did in the same poll four years ago, with 73% favoring Biden compared to 67% who backed Clinton at this point in 2016. President Donald Trump’s support appeared stable at 22%.

Jim Gerstein, a veteran pollster who conducted the survey, said: “One of the striking results in this survey is that there are only 1% who are undecided. Jews have made up their mind about Donald Trump and how they feel about him, and they’ve made up their mind about whether they like and support Joe Biden.”

Foreign interference latest

Those threatening “spoof” election emails U.S. officials said came from Iran — and were briefly mentioned during last night’s debate — appear to have dried up in Florida, the Miami Herald’s Ana Ceballos and Samantha J. Gross report.

Now Reps. Stephanie Murphy and Michael Waltz are “requesting an FBI briefing for the Florida delegation and at least seven local election officials say they have not been given any information from authorities on the scope of the issue other than what has been publicly reported.”

In Florida, hundreds of the emails were received by voters in at least six counties on Tuesday morning, the Herald reports. “Elections officials in at least one Florida county said Thursday they also are aware of a spoofed video claiming to hack a federal voting assistance program.”

The Herald interviewed six Florida voters living in Sweden, Mexico, England, Germany and India, all of whom said they did not receive any emails or videos described by U.S. officials. “And no more of the threatening emails were being reported by voters Thursday in Alachua, Citrus and Collier counties, three of the six counties targeted by the emails, according to local officials.”

The final showdown

In their wrap-up of the final debate between Trump and Biden, McClatchy’s Alex Roarty and David Catanese write that it “was more traditional and civil” than their first one, but “with so little time left before Election Day … it wasn’t immediately clear if it would amount to anything more than a footnote in a tumultuous contest set against the historic backdrop of an ongoing coronavirus pandemic and economic recession.”

As the candidates took the stage in Nashville, Tenn., nearly 50 million people had already voted. Roarty and Catanese note the debate “likely did little to change the fundamentals of the race: Trump is trailing in the polls, and time is running out for a comeback.” But the president was steadier this time around, which “might hearten down-ballot Republicans who voiced deep concerns that a poor showing could further weaken an already difficult political climate for the party.”

Biden, however, was also “much crisper and on message than the previous debate” as well as “ready to respond to the president’s arguments with succinct responses.”

Read all five of their takeaways here.

Trail Mix

Battleground state watch

• The Miami Herald dug into how the Trump campaign used big data to deter Miami-Dade’s Black communities from voting in 2016.

• The Miami Herald’s Mary Ellen Klas examines how Florida’s “TikTok generation” could make the difference in the state this year.

• Trump plans to vote early in person this weekend in Florida, the Miami Herald’s David Smiley reports.

• The Dallas Morning News’ Todd J. Gillman reports that Beto O’Rourke and Julián Castro are pleading with Biden to devote more time to Texas.

• Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro warned the Trump campaign that videotaping voters dropping off mail ballots is not covered by the state’s election code provisions for poll watching, the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Chris Brennan reports.

• Georgia’s new electronic voting system could be vulnerable to cyberattacks, Alan Judd reports for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

Battle for Congress

• Will Sen. Dianne Feinstein of California pay a political price for that hug at the Senate Judiciary hearing? Kate Irby takes a closer look for the Sacramento Bee.

• Kansas Democrat Barbara Bollier lost her train of thought several times during the final U.S. Senate debate with Republican Rep. Roger Marshall, Bryan Lowry and Jonathan Shorman report for the Kansas City Star.

Number of the Day

7

Biden leads Trump by 7 points, 51% to 44%, in Pennsylvania, according to a new Muhlenberg College/Allentown Morning Call poll.

Weekend Listening

Listen to the Beyond the Bubble podcast team break down the various paths Biden and Trump have to reach 270 electoral votes. Download and subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Stitcher | Google Podcasts.

“What did I do?”

Credit: Hunter Demster

Two protesters were charged with misdemeanors after allegedly blocking Attorney General William Barr’s motorcade in Memphis, Tenn. One shared this footage of his arrest.

For Planning Purposes

Oct. 23

President Donald Trump travels to Florida

Joe Biden delivers remarks from Delaware on the coronavirus and economy

Vice President Mike Pence visits Ohio and Pennsylvania

Kamala Harris visits Atlanta, Ga.

Oct. 24

Trump holds rallies in North Carolina, Ohio and Wisconsin

Biden heads to Pennsylvania

Pence travels to Florida

Harris travels to Cleveland, Ohio

Barack Obama campaigns for Biden in Miami

Oct. 25

Trump visits New Hampshire

Pence heads to North Carolina

Harris travels to Detroit, Mich.

Oct. 26

Pence visits Minnesota

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This story was originally published October 23, 2020 at 1:58 PM.