Impact2020: October 22, 2020
In today’s Impact2020 briefing, Republicans are taking a dim view of their chances to keep Senate control, Joe Biden hopes Barack Obama can provide a boost in key battlegrounds, and federal officials are investigating foreign election interference in Florida and other critical states.
On the Ground
Down-ballot blues
Republicans are unsure if President Donald Trump can stage a comeback to win re-election, but they hope his final debate with Joe Biden can at least “save an already endangered GOP Senate majority,” McClatchy’s David Catanese and Alex Roarty report.
Republican operatives think a steadier performance from Trump tonight in Nashville could at least help lift the prospects of vulnerable senators in states like North Carolina, Iowa and Georgia. But few are holding their breath.
“Every time he goes off script — attacking Dr. Fauci — that’s the headline and everything else gets lost,” said Brian Walsh, a veteran GOP strategist. “Every day the race is about something the president says, that’s a lost day.”
One Senate Republican operative compared Trump to the comic book super-villain Thanos, but instead of wiping away half of sentient life in the universe, Trump’s “dismal polling numbers were eliminating the party’s Senate majority instead.”
“It’s worse than 2018,” the strategist said, referring to the Democratic wave election year.
Many Republicans privately concede that they’re expecting to lose the Senate seats in Arizona and Colorado, but are confident they’ll pick up the Alabama seat. If that happened, Democrats would need to add just two more seats to achieve a majority.
While Republicans hope that GOP Sen. Susan Collins will squeak out a narrow victory over Democratic challenger Sara Gideon in Maine, they would still be on the ropes in “traditionally red states that weren’t seen as highly competitive just a few months ago,” such as South Carolina, Iowa, Kansas, Alaska and Georgia. That’s more than doubled the size of the expected competitive Senate map since the outset of the year, Catanese and Roarty write.
Betting on Obama
Biden’s campaign is leaning on Barack Obama in key battleground states down the final stretch of the race. The Miami Herald’s David Smiley reports that Obama is scheduled to visit Miami on Saturday to stump for his former vice president.
That comes after Obama campaigned on Wednesday in Philadelphia, where he “delivered a punishing rebuke” of Trump at a drive-in rally, the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Julia Terruso and Sean Collins Walsh report.
Credit: Matt Slocum, AP
The former president said that Trump’s tone and spreading of misinformation have poisoned political discourse. “It affects how our children see things, and it affects the way our families get along,” he said. “It affects how the world looks at America. That behavior matters. Character matters.”
Obama also made the case for Biden, saying that he “made me a better president. And he’s got the character and experience to make us a better country.”
The Inquirer team notes that the Biden campaign’s decision “to send Obama first to Philadelphia signals how important the state — and Black turnout in its largest city — is to Biden.” While Biden has polled better with Black voters overall, he’s polled comparatively worse with young Black men than with women.
Foreign interference
The Miami Herald’s Ana Ceballos and Samantha J. Gross report that the U.S. government “concluded that Iran and Russia have taken ‘specific actions to influence public opinion’ in the 2020 presidential election, suggesting Iran may be behind the threatening emails to Florida voters this week claiming to be affiliated with the Proud Boys.”
“We have confirmed that some voter registration information has been obtained by Iran, and separately, by Russia. This data can be used by foreign actors to attempt to communicate false information to registered voters that they hope will cause confusion, sow chaos and undermine your confidence in American democracy,” Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe said at a news conference.
The remarks came a day after hundreds of Florida voters received voter-intimidation emails from a group claiming to be the Proud Boys, a far-right group. It has denied involvement.
“Experts in disinformation said typos and false claims about public voting information in the messages hinted at a deceptive voter-intimidation campaign days ahead of Election Day,” writes the Herald.
Arizona, Pennsylvania and Alaska were also targeted in the scheme.
Trail Mix
Battleground state watch
Negotiations between the GOP-led state legislature and Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf to allow counties to begin opening mail ballots in Pennsylvania before Election Day appeared to collapse, Cynthia Fernandez and Jonathan Lai write for the Philadelphia Inquirer.
More than 1 million Wisconsin voters have cast their ballots so far, accounting for about 35% of the state’s total turnout in 2016, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Craig Gilbert notes.
The Nevada Republican Party and Trump’s campaign condemned Clark County election officials for “restricting observers” in a way that prevents poll watchers from “meaningfully observing the process,” Kristyn Leonard reports for the Nevada Independent.
The Iowa Supreme Court “upheld a new law making it harder for county auditors to process absentee ballot requests with missing or incomplete information,” Stephen Gruber-Miller writes for the Des Moines Register.
Battle for Congress
The Kansas City Star’s Bryan Lowry reports that Kansas Democratic Senate candidate Barbara Bollier has been evasive about where she stands on scrapping the filibuster.
The Texas Tribune’s Patrick Svitek writes that Texas GOP Sen. John Cornyn’s “once-staggering cash-on-hand advantage” is now gone against Democrat MJ Hegar, who has been outspending him on TV for a month.
In Kansas’ 3rd congressional district, a new ad applauding Republican Amanda Adkins as “her own woman” was aired by a PAC funded by her father, Alan Landes, Katie Bernard reports for the Kansas City Star.
Tune In
The Beyond the Bubble podcast team breaks down the various paths Biden and Trump have to reach 270 electoral votes in a new episode coming later today. Download and subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Stitcher | Google Podcasts.
Number of the Day
1 million
Georgia has added 1 million new voters since the 2016 election, bringing the number of total registered voters in the state to 7.6 million, Mark Niesse and Jennifer Peebles report for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
That’s “Lindseygraham.com”
Credit: The Daily Show
The Daily Show has a mash-up of South Carolina GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham asking for campaign donations that host Trevor Noah says sounds like “a brand new country hit.”
For Planning Purposes
Oct. 22
President Donald Trump and Joe Biden meet for the final presidential debate in Nashville, Tenn.
Vice President Mike Pence travels to Michigan and Indiana
Oct. 23
Trump travels to Florida
Pence visits Ohio and Pennsylvania
Kamala Harris visits Atlanta, Ga.
Oct. 24
Barack Obama campaigns for Biden in Miami
Harris travels to Cleveland, Ohio
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This story was originally published October 22, 2020 at 12:10 PM.