Impact2020: October 1, 2020
In today’s Impact2020 briefing, the GOP cavalry is arriving for Lindsey Graham in South Carolina, two states ask the National Guard for assistance on Election Day, and advocacy groups adjust their Supreme Court playbooks.
On the Ground
The cavalry is coming
With polls showing Sen. Lindsey Graham in an unexpectedly tight re-election race in right-leaning South Carolina, a major Republican super PAC is preparing a massive ad blitz to give him a boost in the final stretch.
Alex Roarty and Joseph Bustos have the scoop for The State: Senate Leadership Fund plans to spend $10 million over three weeks on TV and radio ads in South Carolina. SLF president Steven Law said the late push is reflective of the massive spending disparity between Graham and Democratic opponent Jaime Harrison.
Roarty and Bostos write: “Harrison has significantly outraised Graham thanks to a surge of small-dollar online donations, creating a financial advantage in the race even before a Democratic super PAC this week announced its own ad campaign in South Carolina totalling $6.5 million.” Graham even made an unusual appearance on Fox News last weak to plead for campaign cash.
The involvement of SLF, which is run by allies of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell in Washington, is “another indication that both parties think the race is competitive.”
Bustos writes that a new Quinnipiac University poll shows Graham and Harrison tied at 48%. The survey also found President Donald Trump leading Joe Biden by just one point in the state.
A little help from the Guard?
“The National Guard is prepared to help with security at polling sites, sort ballots or bolster cybersecurity for the November elections, but so far few governors have requested that assistance,” Guard units across the country told McClatchy’s Tara Copp.
In Kentucky, Gov. Andy Beashear asked the state’s National Guard to assist polling locations with tasks such as cybersecurity or even directing traffic. And a Guard unit in Washington state said it would be providing polling site assistance limited to cybersecurity.
According to federal law, military personnel under federal control are prohibited from conducting operations at polling places. But, National Guard spokesman Army Master Sgt. Michael Houk, said units under state control can provide “defensive cybersecurity in some states, as well as assisting in setting up polling stations, sorting ballots, and providing physical security for citizen safety and protection” at the governor’s request.
Michèle Flournoy, who served as the under secretary of defense for policy under former President Barack Obama, said the National Guard should not be the first option if there are problems in November. “I don’t think that’s a healthy thing for our democracy,” she said.
‘We’re making it up’
With the coronavirus pandemic changing nearly everything about political operations, McClatchy’s Francesca Chambers talked to members of conservative and liberal political groups about adjusting their playbooks ahead of Amy Coney Barrett’s Supreme Court nomination hearings.
Adam Brandon, the president of conservative group FreedomWorks, said he’s planning for mask-wearing activists to be permitted inside the U.S. Senate and authorized to hold mini-rallies with lawmakers, but says he does not know if those activities will be possible.
“The hard thing is, we’re making it up as we go along,” he said. “We knew under our old rules … But right now it’s confusing, but we’re going to do everything that we can.”
Chambers writes that “activist groups on both sides of the political divide are grappling with how to lobby lawmakers and engage voters, given coronavirus concerns and restrictions on indoor and outdoor gatherings.” Political organizations have vowed “to spend a collective $40 million on advertising and activism oriented around the nomination.”
FreedomWorks alone is planning to spend a combined $1.5 million on its Supreme Court campaign, which includes a new round of digital ads targeting conservative voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Colorado and Montana. The efforts will soon expand to Florida and Arizona, Chambers reports.
Tune In
Politico’s Tim Alberta joins McClatchy’s Kristin Roberts and Alex Roarty to break down the state of play in Michigan and other key battleground states across the Midwest on a brand new episode of the Beyond the Bubble podcast. Download and subscribe here: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Stitcher | Google Podcasts
As I found out, the pod makes great company during a curbside pick-up.
Trail Mix
Battleground state watch
The Republican Jewish Coalition is spending $3.5 million on ads in South Florida to boost Trump, the Miami Herald’s David Smiley reports.
Trump claimed credit for additional jobs and touted mining at his rally in Duluth, Minn., Katie Galioto reports for the Minneapolis Star Tribune.
The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Julian Routh rounds up Biden’s train tour through eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania, where he tried to make the case that Trump has forgotten the “forgotten man.”
The Atlanta Journal Constitution’s Greg Bluestein writes that Vice President Mike Pence tried to shore up support with evangelical voters during a visit to Atlanta.
Philadelphia Mayor Jim Kenney said the city is preparing for the possibility that Trump supporters will try to intimidate voters on Election Day, Sean Collins Walsh and Laura McCrystal report for the Philadelphia Inquirer.
Battle for Congress
In Tuesday’s debate, Trump questioned the integrity of November’s election, but the Lexington Herald-Leader’s Daniel Desrochers reports that those concerns are not shared by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky.
Number of the Day
9
Biden leads Trump by 9 points, 53% to 44%, in New Hampshire, according to a new UNH poll.
Sorry, Racing Sausages
Credit: Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
The chairman of the Wisconsin Republican Party told Milwaukee officials it would be illegal to have mascots at stadiums or arenas when they are used as early voting locations. The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Daniel Bice has more.
For Planning Purposes
Oct. 1
President Donald Trump attends a fundraiser in Bedminster, NJ
Joe Biden holds a virtual fundraiser
Vice President Mike Pence visits Council Bluffs, Iowa
Oct. 2
Trump visits Sanford, Fla.
Biden travels to Grand Rapids, Mich.
Oct. 3
Trump visits La Crosse and Green Bay, Wis.
Oct. 5
Biden travels to Miami, Fla.
Oct. 7
The vice-presidential debate takes place
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This story was originally published October 1, 2020 at 1:18 PM.