Impact2020: September 30, 2020
In today’s Impact2020 briefing, we help you sort through the chaos of last night’s debate, examine where both campaigns go from here, and dive into when we should expect election results from Florida.
On the Ground
What now?
By now, you’ve probably read and seen several “highlights” from President Donald Trump and Joe Biden’s first (and very chaotic) debate. But as for the trajectory of the 2020 race itself, there weren’t any game-changers that appeared likely to result in a big swing among the remaining pool of undecided voters, McClatchy’s Alex Roarty and Francesca Chambers write.
Before Tuesday night, Biden held a comfortable lead over Trump nationally and in many key battleground states. Afterwards, “it was not immediately clear how the debate will help the president regain any of that ground.”
Roarty and Chambers write: “The debate opened with an argument over whether Trump’s nomination of Amy Coney Barrett endangered the Affordable Care Act and abortion rights before moving on to the Trump administration’s response to the coronavirus and whether people should wear masks — all subjects that could alienate moderate voters, particularly moderate women.”
And even “after the discussion turned to the economy, a more favorable issue for the president, it just as quickly moved back to a discussion of whether Trump has paid any income taxes recently.”
Credit: Julio Cortez, AP
While it quickly became apparent Trump was intent on bickering with Biden, the Democratic nominee tried to talk directly to voters. “Biden often looked directly into the camera while he spoke, as if trying to have a one-on-one conversation with voters at home amid an otherwise chaotic night of insults. It was a conventional approach to debating in an otherwise unprecedented night.”
One particular flash point occurred when Trump refused to explicitly denounce white supremacists, saying, “Proud Boys, stand back and stand by” — a reference to a far-right extremist group. The State’s Mayaan Schecter reports that South Carolina’s Tim Scott, the Senate’s sole Black Republican, said Wednesday: “I think he misspoke. I think he should correct it. If he doesn’t correct it, I guess he didn’t misspeak.”
Roarty and Chambers have more takeaways from last night’s debate in Cleveland here.
Welcome to Miami
Despite some speculation that Tuesday’s ugly affair would lead to a cancellation of the remaining two debates, Biden’s campaign moved quickly to dismiss that notion, the Miami Herald’s David Smiley reports.
“Joe Biden’s going to show up,” said Kate Bedingfield, Biden’s deputy campaign manager, when asked about the next debates set to take place in Miami and Nashville. “He’s going to continue speaking to the American people.”
Meanwhile, Biden is scheduled to make his first trip to Miami as the Democratic nominee next Monday for a town hall hosted by NBC News, Alex Daugherty reports for the Miami Herald.
The event will take place in front of a socially-distanced audience of undecided Florida voters outside at Pérez Art Museum Miami. “NBC said it extended a similar offer to … Trump,” writes Daugherty.
Biden hasn’t gone to Miami since September 2019, but visited Tampa and Orlando two weeks ago. Trump plans to hold a rally in Orlando on Friday and has made several campaign stops in Florida recently.
A pro-Trump group also has its sights on Florida. Daugherty reports that America First Action will spend $8.7 million on TV, digital and direct mail advertisements that “will focus on Joe Biden’s disastrous economic record” between Oct. 7 and Election Day in Miami.
The Biden campaign is currently slightly outspending the Trump campaign in Florida. According to Daugherty, “the 2020 race in Florida has already led to more than $200 million in political advertising.”
A new normal
And when it comes to election night in Florida, we may have to wait awhile before thousands of ballots are counted in the critical battleground state. But Smiley assures us “that’s OK.”
“While Election Day is often treated like the Super Bowl, as if the winner will certainly emerge before bedtime, Florida law gives local elections officials several days to submit unofficial results,” Smiley explains. “During that time, they are allowed to continue processing ballots — including the scores of 11th-hour mail ballots expected to arrive during the final hours before the close of polls, especially in large, left-leaning counties where hundreds of thousands of voters have requested mail ballots.
“There is a possibility that we’ll still be tabulating ballots on Wednesday,” said Miami-Dade Supervisor of Elections Christina White, who oversees elections in a county of 1.5 million voters, more than a third of whom have requested mail ballots.
White added: “It’s not attributed to any breakdown in the process. It’s simply the time-consuming task of processing tens of thousands of ballots after 7 p.m. on election night.”
An unprecedented 5.1 million voters requested mail ballots in the midst of a pandemic, notes Smiley. While “there’s a greater possibility that a significant number of mail ballots will arrive on Election Day, creating a significant amount of work for supervisors offices” many still expect Florida will know before sunrise on Nov. 4 whether Trump or Biden won the state.
But with the possibility that the election comes down to a narrow margin, officials are encouraging voters to turn in their ballots as early as possible.
Trail Mix
Battleground state watch
Vice President Mike Pence headlines a conservative religious conference in Atlanta today “as Republicans intensify their efforts to carry Georgia in November,” the Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Greg Bluestein reports.
“Trump is planning a pair of Saturday campaign rallies in Green Bay and La Crosse, areas currently labeled by the White House Coronavirus Task Force as ‘red zones,’ the highest level of COVID-19 community spread,” the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Mary Spicuzza writes.
Battle for Congress
The Kansas City Star’s Bryan Lowry has the scoop on competing internal polls that show a tight Senate race between Republican Rep. Roger Marshall and Democrat Barbara Bollier in Kansas.
Many members of Marshall’s Senate campaign team have health insurance because of a provision of the Affordable Care Act, which the candidate has repeatedly sought to repeal, Lowry also reports for the Kansas City Star.
North Carolina Democratic Senate candidate Cal Cunningham said he would meet individually with Amy Coney Barrett if he were a member of the Senate, but would not commit to voting for or against her Supreme Court nomination, Brian Murphy reports for the Raleigh News & Observer.
Debate fact checks
The Sacramento Bee’s Kate Irby conducted a fact check of Trump’s statement during the debate that the USPS can’t handle a mostly mail-in election.
And when it came to Trump’s claim that California wildfires would not be happening if the state had better forest management, Irby writes the statement is “misleading for multiple reasons.”
Number of the Day
3
Biden leads Trump by 3 points, 50% to 47%, in Georgia, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll.
Another takeaway
Megyn Kelly may have created a stir for her debate tweet about Antifa, but it’s this one that has us wondering where Ted Cruz’s retweet is. And if you’re wondering who the winner is, she says it’s Kanye West.
For Planning Purposes
Sept. 30
President Donald Trump visits Duluth, Minn.
Joe Biden travels to Ohio and Pennsylvania
Pence travels to Atlanta, Ga.
Oct. 1
Pence travels to Council Bluffs, Iowa
The Beyond the Bubble podcast team releases a new episode discussing the presidential race in a key battleground state. Download and listen on Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Stitcher | Google Podcasts
Oct. 2
Trump visits Sanford, Fla.
Kamala Harris travels to Las Vegas, Nev.
Oct. 3
Trump visits La Crosse and Green Bay, Wis.
Oct. 5
Biden travels to South Florida
Oct. 7
The vice-presidential debate takes place
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This story was originally published September 30, 2020 at 12:00 PM.