Impact2020: September 23, 2020

In today’s Impact2020 briefing, we examine whether the looming Supreme Court fight will have much of an effect on the trajectory of the presidential race, how one Senate Democratic candidate is responding to court packing proposals, and a Pennsylvania election lawsuit that’s on its way to a post-Ginsburg court.

On the Ground

An ‘overrated’ issue?

In “election year featuring the impeachment of the president, the worst pandemic in a century, a catastrophic recession and racial unrest,” could a Supreme Court fight be the thing that upends what’s been a steady presidential race between Donald Trump and Joe Biden?

That’s the question McClatchy’s David Catanese and Alex Roarty set out to answer. While some Republicans and Democrats have been quick to argue that the battle over the newly opened Supreme Court seat will offer a motivational boost in the homestretch of the campaign, others say there’s a more likely outcome: a judicial showdown that will ultimately “fail to shift the broad contours of a race that hasn’t changed much even in the face of an onslaught of historic events.”

“The Supreme Court tends to be overrated as a campaign issue because the people motivated by it are certain to vote and certain who they are voting for,” said Patrick Ruffini, a Republican pollster.

Catanese and Roarty write that even the race’s few remaining undecided voters are unlikely to be swayed by the vacancy, at least compared to the ongoing pandemic or economic recovery.

Steve Israel, a former Democratic congressman from New York, said: “Undecided voters by their very nature tend to be non-ideological and consistently moderate. And my assumption would be they’re going to be talking about whether their kids can go to school or whether more businesses are going to be boarded up as a result of COVID-19.”

But while it may not do much for the presidential contest, the same strategists say the dynamic might be different in down-ballot races. And Catanese and Roarty note that “the vacancy has already produced a fundraising bonanza for Democrats, whose donors have rushed to contribute millions of dollars to even long-shot Senate candidates in red states... It’s an indication of how the stakes over control of the upper chamber have been raised dramatically in a period of days.”

Shifting to SCOTUS in NC

One such down-ballot race where the Supreme Court battle is poised to play an outsized role is in North Carolina. In their second debate, GOP Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina and Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham sparred over confirming a new justice before the November election, Brian Murphy reports for the Raleigh News & Observer.

Cunningham attacked Tillis for pushing to fill the seat before the election, saying that the senator has “written a blank check to the president.”

Credit: Gerry Broome, AP

Meanwhile, Tillis criticized Biden for not releasing a list of possible Supreme Court nominees he would choose from if elected. Cunningham didn’t address the topic during the debate, but afterwards said he would advise the Democratic nominee against doing so.

“The fact of the matter is Joe Biden does not want to put a list forward. Why can’t the American people know now what Joe Biden is thinking with respect to the future of the court?” Tillis said. “It’s a court that will not defend our Second Amendment, it’s a court that will take us down a radical left path.”

Cunningham also said he would not support adding seats to the Supreme Court, as some liberal Democrats are proposing. “Justice Ginsburg herself said nine was the right number — and nine is the right number for our country,” he said.

A post-RBG test in PA

The GOP asked the U.S. Supreme Court “to review a Pennsylvania ruling that extends the mail-in voting deadline for the presidential election, a move that could lead to the court’s’ first test since the death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg,” McClatchy’s Summer Lin reports.

“Pennsylvania’s Supreme Court ruled last week that there will be a three-day extension for mail-in ballots as long as they’re postmarked by 8 p.m. on Nov. 3,” Lin writes. Previously, ballots were due when the polls close on Election Day but the state’s Democratic Party filed a lawsuit to push back the deadline.”

Republicans argued the decision violates federal law that mandates “holding all elections for Congress and the Presidency on a single day throughout the Union.”

Ginsburg’s death leaves conservatives with a 5-3 advantage. And Lin notes there could be other election-related lawsuits in key states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Georgia that make their way to the Supreme Court.

Trail Mix

Battleground state watch

• Joe Biden made a vow to change systemic racism during his trip to Charlotte, North Carolina today. Jim Morrill and Tim Funk have details in the Charlotte Observer.

• Cindy McCain, the wife of the late GOP Sen. John McCain, formally endorsed Biden for president, citing his “character and leadership,” Yvonne Wingett Sanchez and Ronald J. Hansen write for the Arizona Republic.

• North Carolina voters who make a mistake on absentee ballots can now make fixes more easily for the 2020 elections, due to a mail-in voting rights lawsuit, reports Will Doran for the Raleigh News & Observer.

• The RNC “is getting involved in an appeal over absentee ballot deadlines in Georgia, making it the 20th state where the … party is fighting election lawsuits,” Mark Niesse reports for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

• Broward County, Fla., election officials say they won’t stop maskless people from voting at the polls, the South Florida Sun Sentinel’s Lisa J. Huriash and Andrew Boryga report.

Election disruption

• The Kansas City Star’s Bryan Lowry takes a look at where the push to expand Medicaid in Missouri stands following Ginsburg’s death.

• For our Florida readers: The Miami Herald is tracking election disinformation in mailers and ads. Forrest Milburn, Sarah Blaskey, and Nicholas Nehamas want your help.

Number of the Day

51

A new Washington Post/ABC News poll shows likely voters in Florida favoring Trump over Biden 51% to 47%.

“We promise to carry forward your legacy”

Photo credit: Steven Senne, AP

Rabbi Lauren Holtzblatt spoke at the Supreme Court memorial service for the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg.

For Planning Purposes

Sept. 23

Biden visits Charlotte, N.C.

Sept. 24

Trump visits Charlotte, N.C.

Pence travels to Wisconsin and Minnesota

A new episode of the Beyond the Bubble podcast looking at the 2020 presidential race is available for download on Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Stitcher | Google Podcasts

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This story was originally published September 23, 2020 at 12:24 PM.