Impact2020: September 22, 2020

In today’s Impact2020 briefing, we take a deeper look at Joe Biden’s struggles with Hispanic voters, whether one Supreme Court contender could help Donald Trump in Florida, and a court ruling that could result in more than 100,000 ballots getting thrown out in Pennsylvania.

On the Ground

Biden’s problem in FL

The El Nuevo Herald’s Syra Ortiz-Blanes and McClatchy’s Alex Roarty report that there’s another layer to Joe Biden’s lackluster support from Hispanic voters in Florida and other key battleground states: a gender gap.

They write that “veteran pollsters and Latino experts say the Democratic nominee’s problems are disproportionately concentrated among Hispanic men — a group of voters who don’t consider themselves to be strongly supportive of Trump, but are willing to overlook potential flaws for economic reasons.”

“The gender gap has been one of the largest findings that we have uncovered in our polling over the last year,” said Stephanie Valencia, the co-founder of Equis Research, a firm that specializes in surveys of Latino voters. Valencia emphasized that although Biden performs better with Hispanic women, his campaign still has work to do to make sure they turn out to vote.

Equis’ research shows a smaller gender gap in Florida compared to some other states but “men supported Biden (50% to 40%) at a significantly lower rate than women (56% to 35%),” Ortiz-Blanes and Roarty note.

“Over the last decade, the gender gap among white voters has received a considerable amount of attention from strategists and pundits, as men move toward the Republican Party and women shift toward the Democratic Party. That dynamic has only intensified in the Trump era.” But pollsters say the gender split among Hispanic voters is arguably the most important demographic divide within that community.

“It’s really only the gender gap where Hispanics act more like white voters than like a minority group traditionally more aligned with Democrats,” said GOP pollster Chris Wilson.

SCOTUS list narrowed

Trump has narrowed down his list of candidates for the Supreme Court to five women and has already spoken with some of them, McClatchy’s Michael Wilner reports.

Trump specifically said he may meet with Barbara Lagoa, a Cuban-American born in Miami who serves on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit, when he visits Florida later this week.

Lagoa and Amy Coney Barrett, a circuit judge on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 7th Circuit, are considered the two frontrunners on the list. Trump met with Barrett at the White House on Monday, one senior administration official said.

Florida state Sen. Manny Diaz, Jr., a Cuban-American Republican representing Hialeah, said he believes a Lagoa nomination would help Trump win Florida in the presidential election.

“I do think it matters in the margins, and in Florida the margins matter,” he said.

And Trump said he would prefer a Senate confirmation vote “before the election because there’s a lot of work to be done, and I’d much rather have it. And we have plenty of time to do it.”

A back-up plan

Kate Irby reports for the Sacramento Bee that California Sen. Dianne Feinstein has not ruled out the possibility of expanding the 9-member Supreme Court if Republicans fill the vacant seat before the November election.

Some Democrats are pushing for that move if Trump loses to Biden but still fills Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s seat, giving conservatives a 6-3 majority on the court.

Credit: Andrew Harnik, AP

While Feinstein, the top Democrat on the Senate Judiciary Committee, said the concept of adding seats was new to her, she also said about the eventual vote, “I think the hypocrisy, candidly, of what Republican leaders said is consequential. And I think it should be met.”

Democrats have vowed to fight Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s efforts to move forward with a vote on Trump’s nominee after he blocked President Barack Obama’s Supreme Court pick in 2016, enabling Trump to fill the open seat with Neil Gorsuch.

Irby notes that Franklin Roosevelt was the last president to try to add justices to the Supreme Court in 1937. An attempt today would likely need Feinstein’s approval, since she would be first in line to lead the Judiciary Committee if Democrats take control of the Senate.

Trail Mix

Battleground state watch

• Biden’s campaign is launching a rural radio ad blitz in 9 battleground states, McClatchy’s David Catanese scoops.

• After the Pennsylvania Supreme Court ordered officials to throw out “naked ballots” — mail ballots that arrive without inner “secrecy envelopes” — Lisa Deeley, the chair of the Philadelphia city commissioners, warned that more than 100,000 ballots could be invalidated. The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Jonathan Lai has more.

• A federal judge gave Wisconsin voters an extra six days to get their absentee ballots back to election clerks this fall, Patrick Marley reports for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.

• In Nevada, a federal judge dismissed a lawsuit filed by Trump’s campaign seeking to block the state’s expanded mail-in voting laws, Riley Snyder reports for the Nevada Independent.

SCOTUS watch

• The Lexington Herald-Leader’s Daniel Desrochers explains how the push to fill a Supreme Court vacancy has electoral implications for McConnell’s Senate race in Kentucky.

• Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina said he intends to move forward with Supreme Court confirmation hearings once Trump nominates someone “because that is my job,” Caitlin Byrd and Joseph Bustos report for The State.

• David Lightman takes a look in the Sacramento Bee at Kamala Harris’ upcoming role in questioning Trump’s Supreme Court pick as a member of the Senate Judiciary Committee.

• The Kansas City Star’s Bryan Lowry writes that the Supreme Court hearings will give GOP Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley, a Judiciary Committee member, a “major platform to present his vision for the judicial branch.”

Number of the Day

47

Biden and Trump are tied at 47% in both Georgia and Iowa, according to new polls from the University of Georgia and the Des Moines Register.

That didn’t go as planned

Ohio Lt. Gov. Jon Husted was met with boos when he got on stage at a rally outside Dayton wearing a red “Trump” mask and said “I’m trying to make masks in America great again.” The Cincinnati Enquirer’s Jessie Balmert has the details.

For Planning Purposes

Sept. 22

President Donald Trump visits Moon Township, Pa.

Kamala Harris visits Flint and Detroit, Mich.

Joe Biden holds virtual finance events

Vice President Mike Pence travels to Gilford, N.H.

Sept. 23

Biden visits Charlotte, N.C.

Sept. 24

Trump visits Charlotte, N.C.

Pence travels to Wisconsin and Minnesota

A new episode of the Beyond the Bubble podcast looking at the 2020 presidential race is available for download on Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Stitcher | Google Podcasts

If someone forwarded this email to you, please consider signing up here for our daily roundup of 2020 election news from McClatchy and other local journalists.

This story was originally published September 22, 2020 at 1:04 PM.