Impact2020: September 21, 2020
In today’s Impact2020 briefing, we dive into the debate over filling Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s Supreme Court seat and the political impact it may have on races up and down the ballot. Plus, we take a look at where Joe Biden could potentially make inroads with Donald Trump’s base in Florida, as well as the candidates upcoming trips to the Midwest.
On the Ground
Hoping to break tradition
Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s death has refocused an already turbulent 2020 presidential campaign “on a judicial opening that could cement a conservative majority on the nation’s high court for a generation,” McClatchy’s Alex Roarty reports. And Democrats are hoping to reverse a decades-long trend in which “Republicans have been more effective … at marshalling judicial issues to galvanize their voters and win elections.”
Roarty writes that Democrats argue that this Supreme Court opening “presents fundamentally different stakes for their electoral base, calling attention to a set of viscerally important issues like health care and abortion rights that they hope put” President Donald Trump “and the GOP on shaky political footing.”
Strategists in both parties cautioned that in this fluid situation, it’s nearly impossible to accurately predict which side will benefit in a presidential race where most voters have already decided which candidate they would support. And GOP officials say that their base remains as energized as ever on judicial issues, which could lead to increased voter turnout that may help some of the party’s Senate candidates locked into tight races.
But Roarty notes that polls indicate that, at least at the outset, that Joe Biden carries a small advantage on who voters want to see appoint the next Supreme Court justice. There have also been signs that the looming confirmation fight is motivating donors on the left. The digital fundraising platform ActBlue has already processed more than $100 million in donations to Democratic candidates and organizations since shortly after Ginsburg’s death was announced.
What’s next
McClatchy’s Francesca Chambers and Michael Wilner report that Trump’s top aides reached out to prominent conservatives over the weekend to discuss potential strategies for the upcoming battle, asking them not to get ahead of the president before he announces a nominee.
“One source familiar with the White House vetting process told McClatchy that the president’s team wants a nominee before the first debate on Sept. 29,” Chambers and Wilner write. “At the top of the list are Judges Amy Coney Barrett on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit, and Barbara Lagoa on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eleventh Circuit.”
Credit: Carl Juste, The Miami Herald
Trump is “also considering a strategy in which he makes the nomination now and a Senate confirmation vote is not held until after the election, conservatives familiar with the discussions said.”
During a rally in Fayetteville, N.C. over the weekend, Trump promised to nominate a woman to the Supreme Court, the Raleigh News & Observer’s Lucille Sherman reports.
The Miami Herald’s Martin Vassolo has more on the Miami-born Lagoa. “In 2019, Lagoa became the first Hispanic woman on the Florida Supreme Court. … She was also the first Cuban-American woman to serve on Miami’s appeals court, the 3rd District Court of Appeal, where she later became its first Hispanic female chief judge. … Lagoa left the Florida Supreme Court in December after Trump nominated her for the appeals court position.”
A crack in Trump’s Florida base?
“Amid evidence that Trump has significantly expanded his support among Miami-Dade’s traditionally conservative Cuban exile community, a counter-movement is afoot to show that there are thousands of Cuban-Americans in Florida who believe the president does not have their best interests at heart,” the Miami Herald’s David Smiley reports.
Republicans Cubans still maintain the strongest presence in Miami’s influential Spanish-language media and its political hierarchy. But Smiley writes that “Democratic activists are organizing events like Saturday’s pro-Biden caravan from Hialeah to Little Havana to give a voice to those whose views differ from the majority.”
“Traditionally, the Cuban community has gone Republican. And hats off to the Trump campaign, they’ve done a great job stoking the fears of socialism and communism in our community,” said Mike Rivero, one of the organizers of Saturday’s caravan. “Enough is enough. We’re not gonna be manipulated.”
Few expect Biden to win the Cuban vote in Florida, but strategists said he must compete to make inroads with the community to increase his chances of winning the critical swing state.
Trail Mix
Battleground state watch
Wisconsin likely won’t have final results in the presidential race on election night. Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Patrick Marley explains why.
Biden, Vice President Mike Pence and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo are all visiting Wisconsin this week, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Mary Spicuzza reports.
Ahead of Trump’s visit to Ohio today, the Columbus Dispatch’s Darrel Rowland examines the campaigns’ different approaches to the state, with the president more focused on in-person events and Biden holding the TV ad advantage.
Biden is scheduled to make his first trip to North Carolina as the Democratic nominee on Wednesday, the Charlotte Observer’s Jim Morrill reports.
The Charlotte Observer’s Tim Funk reports that the Trump campaign is hoping to turn out non-voters in small towns and rural areas in North Carolina.
Battle for Congress
Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina said he wants the new Supreme Court vacancy filled before the Nov. 3 election. That’s different from his stance in 2016 following the death of Antonin Scalia, Brian Murphy reports for the Raleigh News & Observer.
In the Kansas Senate race, Republican Roger Marshall and Democrat Barbara Bollier clashed on how quickly a successor should be appointed to the Supreme Court during their debate the day after Ginsburg’s death. Bryan Lowry has the details in the Wichita Eagle.
Bollier’s campaign requires volunteers to sign non-disclosure agreements to guard against election interference, a step not taken by other top level campaigns in the region, Lowry also writes.
Election disruption
Absentee ballots from Black voters in North Carolina are being rejected at nearly triple the rate as those from white voters, the Charlotte Observer’s Jim Morrill reports.
Missouri Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft said for every 50 ballots cast by mail in the state, election authorities will reject at least one, roughly double the national average. Jonathan Shorman, Caitlyn Rosen and Kelsey Landis have more in the Kansas City Star.
Number of the Day
100,000
Voters have already cast more than 100,000 mail ballots in North Carolina, the Raleigh News & Observer’s Will Doran reports. By comparison, less than 200,000 mail ballots were cast in the state during the entire 2016 election.
What a movie reference
Conservative national security analyst John Noonan shared his reaction to news that the U.S. Department of Justice designated New York City as an “anarchist jurisdiction.” No reaction yet from Kurt Russell.
For Planning Purposes
Sept. 21
President Donald Trump visits Vandalia, Ohio
Joe Biden travels to Manitowoc, Wis.
Kamala Harris attends virtual fundraisers
Sept. 22
Trump visits Moon Township, Pa.
Harris visits Flint and Detroit, Michigan
Sept. 23
Biden visits Charlotte, North Carolina
Sept. 24
Pence travels to Wisconsin and Minnesota
A new episode of the Beyond the Bubble podcast looking at the 2020 presidential race is available for download on Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Stitcher | Google Podcasts
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This story was originally published September 21, 2020 at 11:52 AM.