Impact2020: September 17, 2020

In today’s Impact2020 briefing, we look at how Donald Trump’s response to Hurricane Sally in Florida could have political ramifications, Mike Pence playing up the economy (and the return of college football) on the campaign trail, and why Lindsey Graham can’t break away from his Democratic challenger.

On the Ground

A test for Trump in FL

Hurricane Sally will test President Donald Trump’s ability to respond to catastrophic damage in Florida, which could have political ramifications for him in November, the Miami Herald’s David Smiley and Alex Daugherty report.

Smiley and Daugherty note that Trump won the Florida Panhandle, where storm devastation is unfolding, by about 200,000 votes in 2016. “Democrats set out this election cycle to siphon voters from Trump in rural areas like the Forgotten Coast, the area around Apalachicola National Forest where the Panhandle forms a triangle dipping into the Gulf of Mexico.”

Frustration with the pace of federal aid lingers in the region, though some Florida officials remain confident in the government’s ability to respond to Sally, Smiley and Daughtery write. Trump issued a preemptive declaration of emergency earlier this week.

Credit: Andrew Harnik, AP

Still, with polls showing a very tight race in Florida, Trump’s campaign is planning election scenarios in which he could lose the swing state and still win the election, Smiley reports with McClatchy’s Francesca Chambers.

They write: “Without Florida’s 29 electoral college votes, Trump would be completely reliant on a trio of Upper Midwest battleground states he narrowly won in 2016 — Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania — and would need the electoral votes of at least one additional battleground state he previously lost, such as New Hampshire or Minnesota, in order to win a second term.”

Trump trails Joe Biden in all five of those states according to most public polling, and is actually in worse shape in them than in Florida. But the Trump campaign insists he could lose a combination of Florida and Arizona, or Florida and North Carolina, and still cross the 270-vote threshold.

If Trump managed to win the national election while losing Florida, he’d be only the second Republican nominee in the last 100 years to do so, Chambers and Smiley note.

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Pence leans into the economy (and football)

Vice President Mike Pence told supporters during a trip to Zanesville, Ohio that Trump kept his promises to boost the economy, fight terrorism — and bring back Big Ten conference football, Cleveland.com’s Andrew J. Tobias reports.

“This president fought for jobs here, and he fought for college football,” Pence said.

Trump had called Big Ten Commissioner Kevin Warren and publicly pressured the conference to resume playing, even offering federal support, but Tobias notes it’s still unclear exactly how the president helped.

Tobias writes that while Pence was quick to bring up college football, he “spoke for more than 20 minutes before bringing up the coronavirus pandemic, which has crippled the economy and darkened Trump’s re-election chances.” He again promised a safe vaccine before the end of the year.

With polls showing a close race in Ohio that generally leans in favor of Trump, Tobias notes that the candidates haven’t spent much time in the state since the primary. Trump plans to return to the state on Monday for an airport rally in Toledo.

Neck and neck

Yet another poll is showing a tight race between GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham and Democratic challenger Jaime Harrison in the traditionally red state of South Carolina. A new survey from Quinnipiac University found the two candidates tied at 48% among likely voters, with 93% overall saying that they weren’t likely to change their mind before the November election, The State’s Emily Bohatch reports.

“A victor by almost 16 points back in 2014, Senator Graham stares down the first real test of his Senate tenure,” Quinnipiac polling analyst Tim Malloy said.

While the Harrison campaign celebrated the result, the Graham campaign criticized the poll’s methodology. Graham spokesman T.W. Arrighi said: “We learned long ago not to put much confidence in media polls or outside groups who don’t understand South Carolina politics.” Arrighi added that the campaign’s internal polling showed they were on track to win.

The Quinnipiac poll also showed the president leading Biden 51% to 45% in South Carolina, which Trump carried by 14 points in 2016.

Meanwhile, The State’s Joseph Bustos reports that two Harrison campaign staffers have apologized for years-old anti-Semitic, homophobic and sexist tweets that recently surfaced.

Trail Mix

Battleground state watch

• The Trump campaign’s latest round of TV ads in the battleground states make an economic case for the president, but do not mention crime or protests. McClatchy’s David Catanese has more on Team Trump’s shift away from “law and order” messaging.

• Michael Bloomberg is making his initial foray into Florida, planning to spend $5.4 million over the course of a week on ads that criticize Trump’s pandemic response on broadcast TV in all 10 of the state’s media markets. McClatchy’s Alex Roarty has the scoop.

• Kamala Harris makes her Pennsylvania campaign debut in Philadelphia today, hoping to appeal to Black voters, the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Sean Collins Walsh writes.

• Biden will also be in Pennsylvania this evening for a town hall hosted by CNN. The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Rob Tornoe has a preview.

Battle for Congress

• A new Quinnipiac University poll shows Republican Mitch McConnell leading Democrat Amy McGrath by 12 points in the Kentucky Senate race, the Lexington Herald-Leader’s Daniel Desrochers writes.

• Former GOP Sen. Nancy Kassebaum has endorsed Democrat Barbara Bollier in the Kansas Senate race, Bryan Lowry reports for the Kansas City Star.

Election disruption

• All South Carolina voters are now able to cast an absentee ballot for the general election, The State’s Maayan Schecter reports.

• In the Kansas City Star, Bryan Lowry fact-checked Missouri Democratic gubernatorial nominee Nicole Galloway’s campaign ad that says as state auditor, she recovered “$350 million in wasted or stolen taxpayer money.”

• The Dallas Morning News’ James Barragán has the latest on the Texas Supreme Court;s ruling that three Green Party candidates must be added back to the November ballot.

• The first wave of absentee ballots are being sent to 1.1 million Georgia voters who have requested them, reports Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Greg Bluestein.

Number of the Day

42%

Trump’s job approval rating is holding steady at 42% in a new national Gallup poll. McClatchy’s Summer Lin explains why that could be a bad sign (historically) for his re-election prospects.

‘I think he could have explained it a little bit better’

Triumph the Insult Comic Dog is still around in 2020, bringing us this look at a focus group’s reaction to fake Trump ads.

For Planning Purposes

Sept. 17

Joe Biden travels to Scranton, Pa. for a CNN town hall

Kamala Harris travels to Philadelphia, Pa.

Sept. 18

President Donald Trump visits Bemidji, Minn., and Mosinee, Wis.

Biden travels to Duluth, Minn.

Vice President Mike Pence travels to Phoenix, Ariz.

Sept. 21

Trump visits Toledo, Ohio

Sept. 24

Pence travels to Wisconsin and Minnesota for a bus tour

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This story was originally published September 17, 2020 at 12:58 PM.