Impact2020: September 14, 2020

Today’s Impact2020 briefing features a closer look at why middle-aged voters are among Donald Trump’s strongest supporters, the president’s wildfire-focused trip to California, and Michael Bloomberg’s decision to pour tons of cash into Florida.

If someone forwarded this email to you, please consider signing up here for our daily roundup of 2020 election news from McClatchy and other local journalists.

On the Ground

Meeting in the middle

While Generation Z, millennials and once-supportive seniors have turned away from President Donald Trump, he continues to receive his highest share of support from middle-aged men and women, McClatchy’s Alex Roarty reports. And that often overlooked demographic is now playing a critical role in keeping Trump’s “electoral hopes alive.”

These voters, ranging in age from their late 40s to early 60s, “are often the only age group that give Trump the majority of their support in national and battleground state surveys,” Roarty writes.

Why? Veteran pollsters and operatives point to the group’s “relatively more favorable perceptions of the direction of the economy and the coronavirus pandemic, as well as their political upbringing during Ronald Reagan’s presidency” as potential contributing factors.

Credit: Evan Vucci, AP

While age groups often receive far less attention than racial and educational demographics when analyzing the election, middle-aged voters are expected to make up more than one-third of the total electorate this year, making them a target for both campaigns.

Democratic pollster Will Jordan said: “These older middle-aged voters are pretty essential to Trump’s coalition, especially in the upper Midwest. He can’t really win without them.”

Climate change battle

After holding rallies over the weekend in Nevada, one of which was indoors, Trump is continuing his western swing today with visits to California and Arizona.

The president is expected to meet with California Gov. Gavin Newsom, receive a briefing on West Coast wildfires, and hold a roundtable, the Sacramento Bee’s Sophia Bollag and Adam Ashton report.

Trump and Newsom have had a rocky working relationship, attacking each other over certain issues before COVID-19, then reaching a sort of truce during the pandemic, before becoming less friendly last month after Newsom criticized Trump’s climate policies at the Democratic National Convention.

Trump has blamed Democrats in California for failing to clear tinder from the state’s wilderness. But Newsom maintains that the two continue to work well together in emergencies, Bollag and Ashton write, “and that the president has never failed to send California disaster aid when asked.”

Bollag and Ashton note that while Trump tweeted a thank you to those battling the fires, he has “done little to publicly address the western fires” until this trip. Joe Biden delivered a speech today from Wilmington, Del., on the wildfires and the need to address climate change.

Trump is also making his fifth visit of the year to Arizona today with an event focused on Latino voters. The Arizona Republic’s Rachel Leingang takes a deeper look at how the campaign’s “Latinos for Trump” initiative is organizing in the battleground state ahead of the election.

Bloomberg’s big bet

After receiving pressure from Democrats to dig deeper into his pockets, former New York Mayor and multi-billionaire Michael Bloomberg is planning to spend $100 million in the final seven weeks of the 2020 race to help Biden win the critical swing state of Florida, the Miami Herald’s David Smiley reports.

The former presidential candidate said “he intends to focus especially on Hispanic voters, a key constituency that could swing the election in Florida,” Smiley writes. Bloomberg’s financial commitment “should be a shot in the arm for Biden. Polls show a tightening race in Florida ahead of the release of millions of domestic mail ballots on Sept. 24.”

Smiley notes that “Florida — with 10 media markets and 14 million voters — is an expensive place to campaign, and self-funding candidates have had success in spending their own money. Former governor and current Republican U.S. Sen. Rick Scott has used his own personal fortune to boost his candidacy during his three statewide runs over the last decade, all of which were decided by narrow margins.”

Joshua Karp, a Florida-based Democratic strategist, said: “Florida can be intimidating to outside groups because of its size, but it’s the single state that by itself can deny Trump a second term.”

Trail Mix

Battleground state watch

• Three new Biden campaign ads targeting Black voters in North Carolina and around the country were filmed in a Durham barber shop, Dawn Baumgartner Vaughan reports for the Raleigh News & Observer.

• Haitians in South Florida feel overlooked by the Biden campaign, noting that Kamala Harris didn’t meet with the community during her stop in Miami last week, Jacqueline Charles and David Smiley report for the Miami Herald.

• The Biden campaign is adding 13 more staffers in Texas, Patrick Svitek writes for the Texas Tribune.

• The Minneapolis Star Tribune’s Reid Forgrave takes a look at how Minnesota veterans are responding to Trump’s reported disparaging comments about the military.

• Paul Egan and Dave Boucher report in the Detroit Free Press on how Trump’s pitches to Black voters are falling flat in Michigan.

• A Pennsylvania town that was once known for “communism on the prairie” is now all in for Trump. The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Julia Terruso details why.

Election disruption

• A federal appeals court overturned a judge’s ruling that Floridians with felony convictions don’t have to pay off all court fees and fines before voting, Lawrence Mower reports for the Miami Herald.

• A slowdown in part of the naturalization process means that many who are on the path to citizenship won’t be able to vote this fall, the Dallas Morning News’ Dianne Solis reports.

• The Charlotte Observer’s Tim Funk examines how much stock people should put in the 2020 polls of key swing states like North Carolina after 2016.

Battle for Congress

• The Kansas City Star’s Bryan Lowry explores why moderate Republicans could decide the Kansas Senate race between GOP Rep. Roger Marshall and Democrat Barbara Bollier.

Number of the Day

9

Biden leads Trump by the exact same 9-point margin, 50% to 41%, in two new polls of Minnesota released over the weekend by the New York Times/Siena College and CBS News/YouGov.

Inconceivable!

More than 110,000 people donated at least $1 to watch to watch a virtual Princess Bride reunion that served as a fundraiser for the Wisconsin Democratic Party, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Mary Spicuzza reports.

For Planning Purposes

Sept. 14

President Donald Trump visits California and Arizona

Joe Biden addresses a Poor People’s Campaign virtual event and hosts a virtual fundraiser

Vice President Mike Pence visits Janesville, Wis., and Bozeman, Mont.

Kamala Harris holds virtual events before visiting California

Sept. 15

Delaware primary

Biden travels to Florida

Pence travels to Zanesville, Ohio

Harris meets with emergency service personnel in California, then travels to Las Vegas, Nev.

Sept. 17

Biden travels to Scranton, Pa. for CNN town hall

Harris travels to Philadelphia, Pa.

A new episode of McClatchy’s Beyond the Bubble is available. Catch up on the latest episode on Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Stitcher | Google Podcasts

Sept. 18.

Trump visits Bemidji, Minn., and Mosinee, Wis.

Biden travels to Minnesota

Pence travels to Phoenix, Arizona

This story was originally published September 14, 2020 at 12:33 PM.