Impact2020: September 9, 2020
In today’s Impact2020 briefing, we take a look at why the Trump campaign is increasingly steering resources into Minnesota, how the president is trying to polish his environmental record in Florida, and why Black voters will be especially critical in North Carolina.
On the Ground
The Pennsylvania of 2020?
As President Donald Trump continues to lag in key battleground state polls, his campaign is increasingly pouring resources into Minnesota, a state he narrowly lost in 2016, McClatchy’s Dave Catanese reports.
Trump’s campaign is slated to spend more than $14 million on TV, radio, and digital ads in Minnesota between the beginning of September through Election Day, compared to $12.6 million in Michigan and $8.3 million in Wisconsin, according to media tracking firm Advertising Analytics. Catanese notes that spending reflects a reversal from the previous three months when the Trump campaign was spending more in Michigan and Wisconsin, two swing states that were critical to his victory four years ago.
Trump is trailing in all three Upper Midwest states, but new Morning Consult polling shows the race is tighter in Minnesota than Michigan or Wisconsin.
Catanese writes: “The aggressive play for Minnesota amounts to a potential lifeline for Trump: If he held his 2016 map … and Joe Biden won back Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, the president could still eke out an Electoral College victory by flipping Minnesota.”
Trump campaign manager Bill Stepien, told reporters, “A lot of people look at Minnesota as the Pennsylvania of 2020.”
And the campaign isn’t just throwing money into Minnesota. After Trump and Vice President Mike Pence visited the state last month, they’re sending Donald Trump Jr. to Duluth today and Lara Trump to Minneapolis on Thursday.
As for Biden, his campaign has reserved $4.8 million on the airwaves for the fall in Minnesota, a state Hillary Clinton did not run any ads in four years ago. And Jill Biden is visiting the state today.
Harris in the spotlight
David Lightman took a closer look for the Sacramento Bee at some of the attacks Trump’s campaign and top GOP officials have hurled at Kamala Harris since she joined the Biden ticket, finding that “the five most incendiary allegations against Harris are either untrue or greatly exaggerated.”
Some of the Republican claims Lightman examines: that Harris would reduce the amount of red meat Americans would be allowed to eat, that she called Biden “a racist,” and that she compared ICE to the KKK. Lightman has all the details and context here.
And Trump himself took aim at Harris in a speech in North Carolina yesterday. The Charlotte Observer’s Jim Morrill reports that Trump not only mispronounced her name and criticized her standing when she ran for president, but said, “She could never be the first woman president. That would be an insult to our country.”
Trump on the trail
Trump’s rally in Winston-Salem last night marked his third visit in over two weeks to the battleground state of North Carolina, where polls show him virtually tied with Biden.
Morrill reports that Trump attacked Biden on several fronts during a 75-minute address at Smith Reynolds Airport. The president told supporters that “the economy will collapse” under a Biden presidency and that “if Biden wins, China wins.” Trump also sought to tie the Democratic nominee to violent protesters, saying that “Biden’s plan is to appease the domestic terrorists, my plan is to arrest them.”
As for Biden, his campaign released two new ads in North Carolina, one focusing on protecting Social Security and Medicare and the other on the pandemic.
Prior to his North Carolina stop, Trump visited Jupiter, Fla., where he “brushed back critics of his record on the environment” in the crucial swing state by signing an order “that extends and expands a ban on drilling off the state’s coastline,” David Smiley, Alex Harris and Alex Daugherty report for the Miami Herald.
“Environmental issues have taken a backseat in Florida this year to the coronavirus pandemic,” they write. “But drilling — and presidential promises to prevent it from encroaching on Florida’s environment — are staples of campaign season in Florida.”
Trail Mix
Battleground state watch
The Charlotte Observer’s Tim Funk reports that North Carolina has the greatest percentage of African Americans (nearly 23%) than any of the other five most hotly contested battleground states, a critical voting bloc that could make the difference in the presidential election.
Ahead of his visit to Warren, Mich., today, Biden “unveiled a plan to tax companies that move work overseas at a higher rate and reward those that bring jobs back into the U.S.,” Todd Spangler and Dave Boucher report for the Detroit Free Press.
The Biden campaign outspent Trump $15 million to $0 on the Pennsylvania airwaves the last five weeks, Andrew Seidman reports for the Philadelphia Inquirer.
Election disruption
State Senate Majority Leader Dan Feltes declared himself the winner of the Democratic primary for New Hampshire governor, though the results are not final yet. Kevin Landrigan has more for the New Hampshire Union Leader.
Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose said he will publicize how many mail-in ballots are still outstanding in the state on election night, “in part to prepare the public for the possibility that the winner of the presidential race won’t be immediately known,” Andrew J. Tobias writes for Cleveland.com.
A federal judge in Texas “found that one facet of the state’s signature verification rules for those ballots is unconstitutional and must be reworked for the upcoming election,” the Texas Tribune’s Alexa Ura reports.
Battle for Congress
Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Gimenez, the Republican nominee in Florida’s 26th congressional district, “detailed his stances on a number of federal policy issues” during a 45-minute interview with the Miami Herald’s Alex Daugherty.
Follow the money
The Miami Herald’s Ben Wieder and Meghan Bobrowsky found that more than 75 businesses that “received loans of at least $150,000 from the coronavirus small business relief program but don’t appear to have existed before this spring or to have met other eligibility criteria for the program.”
Number of the Day
9
Biden leads Trump by 9 points, 53% to 44%, among likely voters in Pennsylvania, according to a new NBC News/Marist poll.
Such a ham
Comedian Jimmy Fallon of The Tonight Show has fun with a report that the Trump campaign has already blown through $800 million.
For Planning Purposes
Sept. 9
Joe Biden visits Michigan
Jill Biden travels to Minnesota
Vice President Mike Pence travels to Pennsylvania
Sept. 10
President Donald Trump visits Freeland, Mich.
Jill Biden holds virtual event in Phoenix
Kamala Harris visits Miami
A new episode of McClatchy’s Beyond the Bubble podcast is available. Download and subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Stitcher | Google Podcasts
Sept. 11
Joe Biden and Trump visit Pennsylvania
Pence visits New York
Sept. 15
Joe Biden travels to Florida
Pence travels to Zanesville, Ohio
If someone forwarded this email to you, please consider signing up here for our daily roundup of 2020 election news from McClatchy and other local journalists.
This story was originally published September 9, 2020 at 12:24 PM.