Impact2020: September 8, 2020

Welcome to the first post-Labor Day edition of the Impact2020 briefing! Today, we take a look at how the two parties are committed to very different methods of voter outreach for the final eight-week stretch of the 2020 race, how Joe Biden is faring with an important voting bloc in Florida, and Mike Pence and Kamala Harris’ dueling stops in Wisconsin.

On the Ground

The canvassing divide

With 56 days left until the election, Democrats and Republicans are split over the importance of door-to-door campaigning, which “is emblematic of a wider divide between the two parties” during the pandemic that has affected how they regard everything from mask mandates to travel restrictions,” McClatchy’s Alex Roarty reports.

And according to some veteran political operatives, “it has also created a unique set of circumstances” that could impact the outcome of races up and down the ballot as Republicans continue the “tried-and-true” voter canvassing operations while Democrats test out alternative efforts in an attempt to be safer.

“We’ve had campaigns do different things before, but usually because of innovation,” said Eddie Vale, a longtime Democratic strategist. “We’ve never had a situation where the two sides run different campaigns because of a public health crisis.”

Credit: David Zalubowski, AP

But there’s intense debate over whether voter canvassing operations will significantly affect the final vote tallies in November. While some progressive leaders said they still planned to launch a door-to-door voter contact effort in key battleground states where COVID-19 cases have dropped recently, most national Democratic-aligned groups have refrained from doing so, including Joe Biden’s campaign.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump’s campaign and several other GOP-aligned groups said they resumed canvassing at the beginning of the summer, and plan to forge ahead into the fall.

Biden’s Florida concern

Most public polls show Biden with a small lead in Florida, but he’s struggling to win over Latino voters in Miami, the Miami Herald’s David Smiley reports.

Hillary Clinton solidly beat Trump in Miami-Dade County four years ago, but the president has “increased his odds of victory in his must-win home state on Nov. 3 by improving his standing” in Florida’s most populous county, according to a new poll by Bendixen & Amandi International and the Miami Herald.

The poll found that Biden still led Trump 55% to 38% in Miami-Dade. But as Smiley notes, Trump ”just needs to do better in the Democratic-leaning county to offset possible losses in other parts of Florida.” Trump lost Miami-Dade by 30 points in 2016 while narrowly carrying the state overall.

As Fernand Amandi, the Democratic strategist behind the poll, put it: “If Biden underperforms in what should be one of his strongest counties ... it might imperil his chances of winning Florida unless there is a massive white voter exodus from Trump in other parts of the state.”

The poll also found Biden splitting Hispanic voters with Trump. Smiley writes that those numbers “are driven by Trump’s increased support among conservative leaning Cuban-Americans, who supported Trump over Biden in the poll by a crushing 38 points.” Smiley notes that “several polls have found the Democratic nominee struggling to match Clinton’s 2016 numbers among Florida Latinos.”

Trump is scheduled to visit Jupiter, Fla., as well as Winston-Salem, N.C., today, Monique O. Madan reports for the Miami Herald.

VP showdown in Wisconsin

Vice President Mike Pence and Kamala Harris kicked off the unofficial start of the fall campaign with Labor Day visits to Wisconsin. But as Patrick Marley and Sarah Hauer of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel point out, the two traveled to “opposite corners of Wisconsin … emphasizing contrasting responses to a police shooting in Kenosha and the unrest that followed.”

In Milwaukee, Harris talked by phone with Jacob Blake and met with his family in person. Harris also toured an International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers training facility in Wauwatosa, asking how instructors “were navigating the pandemic and enforcing social distancing in the labs” and focused on entrepreneurship when she met with Black business leaders, Marley and Hauer report.

Harris’ visit comes four days after Biden visited Kenosha, showing that the Democrats are putting Wisconsin “at the top of their strategy.”

Meanwhile, Pence campaigned in La Crosse, where he called for an end to the rioting and looting in Kenosha and other cities, but never mentioned Blake, Marley and Hauer write. The vice president also focused on workers, using his speech “to cheer on America’s workforce and promise that the economy would soon rebound.” He promoted the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement as well, noting that Harris voted against it.

The latest tracking poll of Wisconsin from Morning Consult released over the weekend showed Biden leading Trump by 8 points.

Trail Mix

Battleground state watch

• The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Julia Terruso writes that while the Philadelphia suburbs “have become an epicenter of the Democratic Party” in Pennsylvania, the party is also seeing smaller gains in the suburbs of the central part of the state.

• The Biden campaign is adding 10 additional staffers in Georgia, Greg Bluestein reports for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

• A new ruling will open the door for some felons on probation or parole to vote in North Carolina this fall, the Raleigh News & Observer’s Will Doran reports.

Election disruption

• New Hampshire is expecting a record number of ballots to be cast in the state’s primary elections today, with the possibility that over 40% of votes could be absentee, Paul Feely reports for the New Hampshire Union Leader.

• 1,000 Georgia residents voted twice in the June primary and may face charges, Mark Niesse reports for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

• Roughly 1 in 5 Texas voters say they would be uncomfortable casting a ballot in person, according to a new poll from the Dallas Morning News and the University of Texas at Tyler, Todd J. Gillman writes.

Battle for Congress

• Andrew Janz, the Democrat who narrowly lost to Republican Rep. Devin Nunes of California in 2018, is now focusing his attention on helping a candidate challenge House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, Kate Irby reports for the Sacramento Bee.

Number of the Day

48%

Trump now leads 48% to 46% in Texas, per the new Dallas Morning News/UT-Tyler poll, erasing a 5-point lead Biden held in early July.

What’s at “stake”

Credit: The Columbus Dispatch

Some Ohioans are posting not only signs for their preferred candidates in their yards, but also absentee ballot requests and voter registration forms.

For Planning Purposes

Sept. 8

President Donald Trump visits Winston-Salem, N.C. and Jupiter, FL

Jill Biden holds virtual events in Jacksonville, Fla., Green Bay, Wis. and Clark County, Nev.

New Hampshire and Rhode Island primaries

Sept. 9

Joe Biden visits Michigan

Jill Biden travels to Minnesota

Vice President Mike Pence travels to Pennsylvania

Sept. 10

Trump visits Freeland, Mich.

Jill Biden holds virtual event in Phoenix

Kamala Harris visits Miami

Sept. 11

Joe Biden and Trump visit Pennsylvania

Pence visits New York

Sept. 12

Trump visits Reno, Nev.

Sept. 13

Trump visits Las Vegas, Nev.

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This story was originally published September 8, 2020 at 12:48 PM.