Impact2020: September 4, 2020
In today’s Impact2020 briefing, we take a look at how Joe Biden and Trump are faring in the nation’s largest swing state, their most recent trips to Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and how the NAACP is reaching out to a key voting bloc in South Carolina -- and beyond.
On the Ground
A tight race in FL
Joe Biden continues to lead President Donald Trump in Florida, but it’s a narrow lead that shows “the race is tightening as the campaign heads into its final two months,” reports McClatchy’s Alex Daugherty.
Results of a poll by Quinnipiac University conducted from Aug. 28 to Sept. 1 showed Biden ahead of Trump 48% to 45% among likely voters. Daugherty notes that “Florida is a swing state where presidential elections are won by razor-thin margins. Trump won Florida by 1.2% in 2016.”
With May being the last time a poll showed Trump leading in the race, Quinnipiac University polling analyst Tim Malloy said, “The president’s re-election team faces the reality that the Trump era could end at sun-splashed Mar-a-Lago in November if Joe Biden captures Florida.”
Asked which candidate will do a better job of handling key issues, Trump beat Biden 55% to42% on the economy, but Biden led 49% to 47% on handling a crisis, 50%$ to 45% on handling the coronavirus response, 51% to 43% on healthcare and 53% to 41% on handling racial inequality among likely Florida voters.
A polling memo showed that most of those who had a preference for a candidate said they planned to stick with their current pick. “In Florida, 93% of likely voters who selected a candidate in the presidential match up say their minds are made up, with 5% saying they might change their minds,” the polling memo read.
A separate poll of likely voters in Pennsylvania released by Quinnipiac showed Biden with a 52% to 44% lead. Daugherty writes “Trump won both Florida and Pennsylvania in 2016, and both states are crucial to his reelection effort.”
LISTEN FOR MORE
In a new episode of the Beyond the Bubble podcast, McClatchy’s Alex Roarty, Adam Wollner and Brian Murphy break down all the latest post-convention polling and discuss Biden’s response to Trump’s law and order attacks. Download and subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Stitcher | Google Podcasts
Biden’s promise
In his first visit of the general election to Wisconsin, Joe Biden on Thursday highlighted racial injustice in the wake of the police shooting of Jacob Blake, a 29-year-old Black man who is now paralyzed from the waist down, Wisconsin State Journal’s Mitchell Schmidt and Riley Vetterkind report.
“While President Donald Trump earlier this week pushed for ‘law and order’ ... to clamp down on protests, Biden focused on the need to address racial injustice and create accountability among police departments,” write Schmidt and Vetterkind. And he expressed some optimism to a group at Kenosha’s Grace Lutheran Church.
“I think the country is much more primed to take responsibility, because they now have to see what you see, what you’ve experienced,” Biden said.
“I can’t guarantee you everything will be solid in four years, but I can promise you one thing, it will be a whole heck of a lot better,” he added.
Meanwhile in Latrobe, Pennsylvania, on Thursday, Trump delivered a speech “that reaffirmed his administration’s commitment to law enforcement, accused Democrats of capitulating to radicals and warned that the American way of life will change if he loses the White House in November,” writes Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Julian Routh.
In his speech, Trump alleged that Biden wants to “surrender your nation to the radical left-wing mob.” And Trump criticized Biden for only recently coming out in favor of law enforcement, saying, “Biden today came out and said, ‘no, no, fracking is okay.’ Did you see that? Fracking’s okay. Because he was getting killed,” Trump said. “And now he came out in favor of law enforcement.”
Routh notes that Biden earlier denounced rioting and looting as well as violence by “extremists and opportunists” who have brought weapons to protests, and the violence of “unwarranted police shootings” and “excessive force” by law enforcement — as he described.”
Both candidates are expected to return to Pennsylvania next week to commemorate the 19th anniversary of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.
NAACP launches ad campaign in SC
The NAACP is including South Carolina in its newly launched multi-platform advertising campaign across eight battleground states in an effort to increase Black voter turnout by more than 5% compared to 2016, reports The State’s Maayan Schecter. The NAACP sees the campaign as a “prime opportunity” to increase Black voter turnout in Florida, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina and Wisconsin.
The “Black Voices Change Lives” campaign will start with radio ads running through the rest of the month and then “focus on those battleground states where data shows Black voters are the main factor in the outcome of an election,” reports Schecter.
Black voters are among the key voting blocs in South Carolina, particularly for Democratic candidates running for public office, Schecter writes.
Pew Research Center found that Black turnout declined for the first time in 20 years in 2016, after reaching a high in 2012 when former President Barack Obama was on the ballot for a second term. White voter turnout was higher in 2016 than in 2012, according to Pew Research.
Trail Mix
Battleground state watch
After senior Trump administration officials cited his 2005 study on mail-in-voting to question the practice, former president Jimmy Carter has made it clear he supports the use of absentee ballots, reports the Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Tamar Hallerman.
Battle for Congress
One election forecaster shifted his prediction of South Carolina’s 1st District congressional race between incumbent Democratic Rep. Joe Cunningham and Republican state Rep. Nancy Mace from “toss up” to “lean Democratic.”The State’s Maayan Schecter has the details.
Governor watch
Republican lawmakers rejected Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly’s request to fund additional benefits for unemployed workers at $400 a week using federal coronavirus aid, but Kelly plans to apply for $300 a week instead, reports the Wichita Eagle’s Jonathan Shorman.
Election disruption
McClatchy’s Bailey Aldridge has some tips on how to avoid common mistakes that could get your ballot rejected if you’ve decided to vote by mail.
“At least a quarter of North Carolina’s counties are struggling to recruit poll workers” for the fall election, reports the NC Watchdog Reporting Network.
Sen. Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin urged “destructive changes” to USPS operations to be reversed, and urged those looking to vote absentee to request their ballot “today,” reports Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Erik S. Hanley.
A federal appeals court ruled on a lawsuit challenging a decades-old Florida law that requires presidential candidates who are in the same party as the governor appear first on the ballot and “added fuel to the debate,” Jim Saunders reports for the News Service of Florida.
New guidance from Iowa’s Secretary of State’s Office says county auditors may place drop boxes for ballots inside their offices or on county property, but may not place them at other locations, reports the Des Moines Register’s Stephen Gruber-Miller.
Number of the Day
55%
In a new ABC News/Ipsos poll, 55% of Americans said Trump’s rhetoric on the unrest in parts of the country is aggravating the situation. And there was a divide amongst Republicans on his approach: 30% said Trump is improving the situation, while 26% said he’s having an adverse impact.
“Everyone knows it’s totally false”
Credit: Associated Press
Trump fires back against the report that he referred to the American war dead in France in 2018 as “losers” and “suckers.”
For Planning Purposes
Sept. 4
Joe Biden delivers remarks in Wilmington, Del.
Sept. 7
Pence visits La Crosse, Wis.
Kamala Harris will travel to Milwaukee, Wis.
Sept. 8
Trump visits Winston-Salem, N.C.
Jill Biden holds virtual event in Jacksonville, FL
New Hampshire and Rhode Island primaries
Sept. 9
Jill Biden travels to Minnesota
Sept. 10
Jill Biden holds virtual event in Phoenix
Sept. 11
Biden and Trump visit Pennsylvania
Mike Pence visits New York
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This story was originally published September 4, 2020 at 12:52 PM.