Impact2020: August 31, 2020

In today’s Impact2020 briefing, we take a look at an anti-Trump GOP group’s efforts to flip Florida for Joe Biden, why North Carolina should expect a lot of campaign activity this week, and the pushback to the president’s plans to visit Kenosha.

On the Ground

Operation ‘Orange Crush’

An anti-Trump Republican group led by a former Jeb Bush political strategist will spend millions in Florida to boost Joe Biden through a campaign dubbed “Project Orange Crush,” Alex Roarty and Alex Daugherty report for the Miami Herald.

Officials with Republican Voters Against Trump super PAC said they plan to spend $8 million to $10 million over the next two months on ads targeting moderate Florida voters. A memo from the group stated: “Our plan is to surgically target the key 450,000 Independents and soft Republicans who will decide the election.”

The group is “leaning on the experience of GOP operatives with deep ties to Florida politics: Mike Murphy, who twice helped Bush win the Florida governor’s office, will lead the campaign, while David Hill, a former Bush pollster, is also involved,” Roarty and Daugherty report.

They write that the group has three reasons for focusing on Florida: “Biden’s narrow advantage in Florida-based polls, Florida’s status as the country’s largest swing state and the diversity of Florida’s electorate, much more than other key swing states like Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.”

RVAT conducted polling with Florida Republicans and independent voters who aren’t fully committed to either Biden or Trump. The results showed that “a majority of voters in certain groups — women, independents and people age 65 and older who aren’t backing either candidate — were leaning towards Biden” but that “the two candidates were tied overall.”

Going to Carolina

Trump, Vice President Mike Pence and Eric Trump are all slated to visit the key battleground state of North Carolina this week, Brian Murphy reports for the Raleigh News & Observer.

The president is scheduled to visit Wilmington on Wednesday to commemorate the 75th anniversary of the end of World War II, as well as declare the city as the first World War II Heritage City. The bill that established World War II Heritage City designations was introduced in 2019 by two North Carolina Republicans, Sen. Thom Tillis and Rep. David Rouzer, and later signed into law by Trump.

Trump in Lake Charles, La. Saturday. Credit: Alex Brandon, AP

Meanwhile, Pence will visit Raleigh on Thursday for anti-abortion events and to accept an endorsement from a law enforcement organization. And Eric Trump will host an event with evangelical Christians in Huntersville on Friday. He is also scheduled to meet with veterans, tour the Battleship North Carolina and give remarks.

The Trump campaign is stepping up its presence in the swing state before absentee ballots are mailed to voters who have requested them starting Friday. Murphy reports that voters have requested more than 460,000 absentee ballots so far.

For more North Carolina government and politics news, listen to the Domecast politics podcast from The News & Observer and the NC Insider on Megaphone, Apple Podcasts, iHeartRadio, and Stitcher .

Trump asked ‘to reconsider’

Before he heads to North Carolina, President Trump is planning to visit Kenosha, which has been shaken by unrest since a police officer shot Jacob Blake, on Tuesday. But Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers is urging Trump not to travel to the city, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Mary Spicuzza reports.

In a letter, Evers wrote that when he visited Kenosha last week, he saw “a community working to deal with the trauma and pain of these events and extreme loss,” and warned that his trip could hurt rather than help.

Evers wrote: “I am concerned your presence will only hinder our healing. I am concerned your presence will only delay our work to overcome division and move forward together.”

Wisconsin Attorney General Josh Kaul echoed Evers’ warnings, tweeting that Trump “should rethink his plans and give Kenosha residents space to heal.”

Trail Mix

Battleground state watch

• The Nevada Independent’s Megan Messerly writes that two months out from Election Day, “Democrats are facing a Nevada that feels much more in play than many anticipated it to be, though it’s hard to tell because there has been no public polling on the race since late April.”

• Texas Democrats announced the largest voter registration drive in the state party’s history, Paul Cobler reports for the Dallas Morning News.

Convention fallout

• Will the Trump campaign be able to paint Kamala Harris, who had a reputation as a tough California prosecutor, as soft on crime? David Lightman explores for the Sacramento Bee.

• In the South Carolina Senate race, Sen. Lindsey Graham is pushing back on claims from Democratic challenger Jaime Harrison that he didn’t wear a mask at Trump’s speech at the White House, The State’s Joseph Bustos reports.

Election disruption

• Officials say turnout may eclipse previous primaries for Massachusetts’ Sept. 1 primary, which is also the first statewide election that has included a vote-by-mail option, Patrick Johnson reports for MassLive.com

• More than 10,000 ballots were rejected in South Florida, including those from a nursing home, during the Aug. 18 election as an unprecedented number of voters chose to cast mail ballots, the Miami Herald’s David Smiley and Erin Doherty report.

• Former Texas congressman-turned-Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe has sparked backlash after halting in-person briefings to keep members of Congress up to speed on foreign meddling in the election, the Dallas Morning News’ Todd J. Gillman reports.

Number of the Day

47%

Biden holds a 2-1 advantage over Trump with voters who supported third-party candidates Gary Johnson or Jill Stein in 2016, according to combined national NBC News/Wall Street Journal polls. In 2020, 47% are backing Biden, 20% are supporting Trump and 33% are undecided or planning to vote for another candidate.

What a slogan

ProPublica’s Alec MacGillis snapped this photo of a campaign sign in Pennsylvania.

For Planning Purposes

Aug. 31

Joe Biden holds a virtual fundraiser

Sept. 1

President Donald Trump visits Kenosha, Wis.

Vice President Mike Pence visits Exeter, PA.

Jill Biden launches a “Back-to-School Tour” through eight battleground states (MI, WI, NC, FL, NV, MN, AZ, PA). The events will be a mix of virtual and in-person.

Massachusetts primary

Sept. 2

Trump visits Wilmington, N.C.

Sept. 3

Pence travels to North Carolina

The Beyond the Bubble podcast team has a brand new episode. Download and subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Stitcher | Google Podcasts

Sept. 8

New Hampshire and Rhode Island primaries

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This story was originally published August 31, 2020 at 12:05 PM.