Impact2020: August 7, 2020
Welcome to today’s Impact2020 briefing, where we’re less than 90 days from the general election. Today, we explore how the battleground map is shifting, a longtime issue for Florida Democrats that’s reemerging, and how a North Carolina businessman is running the Postal Service in an election year where there’s expected to be an influx of absentee ballots.
On the Ground
The Florida voter registration war
The Miami Herald’s David Smiley reveals that the “Florida Democrats have a problem”: they didn’t hit their goal of registering 1 million voters.
“Following narrow losses in 2018 races for Florida governor and U.S. Senate, Democrats emerged from the midterms with a new resolve to register more voters in the nation’s largest swing state as a path to victory in 2020,” Smiley reports.
But they’ve fallen short of those goals with seven weeks to go until mail ballots are sent. Data from the Florida Division of Elections shows that Democrats lead Republicans in the state by 240,423 registered voters. “Florida Republicans are closer to parity in voter registration than they’ve been in decades — a dynamic that may portend yet another hard-fought, narrowly decided presidential election,” Smiley writes.
Last week, Florida Republican Party chairman Joe Gruters stated: “We won the voter registration war.” But as Smiley notes, there are still some wild cards. With 3.6 million voters registered without party affiliation, an increase from 2016, and requests for mail ballots nearly doubling over the last four years to 4.1 million, with most of that growth on the Democratic side, it’s likely that it will be another down-to-the-wire election.
A close eye on the mail
North Carolina businessman Louis DeJoy is making significant changes as the nation’s new postmaster general that some worry could lead to serious implications for mail-in voting ahead of November, Jim Morrill reports for the Charlotte Observer.
Amid a manpower shortage caused by the coronavirus pandemic, DeJoy has implemented new rules that have “canceled overtime, barred carriers from waiting for delayed shipments and making them leave mail at distribution centers if picking it up would delay them from their routes,” Morrill writes.
Mark Dimondstein, the president of the American Postal Workers Union, said, “We’re getting reports from all over the country of backed-up mail.” And he joins other critics who worry that DeJoy, a major donor to Trump, will delay the delivery of an anticipated flood of absentee ballots that could decide the election. “The last thing we need is for mailed ballots to be slowed down,” Dimondstein said.
But supporters think DeJoy could save the postal service. “I don’t know anybody in this country who could do the job Louis is in right now better than Louis,” said Jim Culbertson, veteran GOP fundraiser.
How the battleground map is changing
On the latest episode of the Beyond the Bubble podcast, McClatchy’s Adam Wollner, Francesca Chambers and David Catanese discussed President Donald Trump and Joe Biden’s diverging ad spending strategies in the battleground states less than three months out from the election.
“The biggest difference that has changed since a month ago is that Michigan appears to be off the map,” said Catanese. “The core three battleground states that we talk about ad nauseam … Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, Republicans have scaled back spending in Michigan.”
They also take one final look at where Biden’s running mate shortlist stands ahead of an expected announcement next week.
Download the episode on: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Stitcher | Google Podcasts
Trail Mix
Battleground state watch
A new super PAC, Blue Texas PAC, has launched to try to help Biden win Texas, the Texas Tribune’s Patrick Svitek reports.
Biden may have the edge in Michigan, but a new poll shows that Trump is making gains, Todd Spangler reports for the Detroit Free Press.
The Des Moines Register’s Brianne Pfannenstiel reports that Vice President Mike Pence will make his fourth trip this year to Iowa next week.
Election disruption
Major mail delivery problems in the Philadelphia region are raising concerns about possible voter disenfranchisement, Ellie Rushing and Jonathan Lai report for the Philadelphia Inquirer.
Montana Gov. Steve Bullock, who is running for Senate, is letting counties decide whether to hold the general election by mail in the state, Holly Michels writes for the Helena Independent Record.
PNC Arena in Raleigh, N.C., has emerged as a possible early voting site for the fall, Will Doran reports for the Raleigh News & Observer.
COVID update
McClatchy’s Michael Wilner interviewed Dr. Anthony Fauci, who said that surging coronavirus cases may offer one upside: increasing the chances of a vaccine breakthrough before November.
The Wichita Eagle’s Jonathan Shorman reports: “Kansas House Speaker Ron Ryckman disclosed Thursday he had been hospitalized for the coronavirus, prompting Gov. Laura Kelly to criticize his decision to attend a July meeting where Kelly and other officials were present without revealing his diagnosis.”
Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine has tested negative for coronavirus after taking a second test, Cleveland.com’s Andrew J. Tobias reports.
Battle for Congress
Former U.S. Ambassador to Japan Bill Hagerty won the Tennessee Senate GOP primary, Joel Ebert and Natalie Allison write for the Nashville Tennessean.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell leads Democrat Amy McGrath by 5 points in a new Quinnipiac University poll of the Kentucky Senate race, reports Daniel Desrochers for the Lexington Herald-Leader.
Number of the Day
44%
A new Quinnipiac University poll shows Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham and Democratic challenger Jaime Harrison tied at 44% in the South Carolina Senate race.
“Now we must answer today’s call”
GOP Gov. Kay Ivey compares mask-wearing to efforts during WWII in a video ending with the hearty plea, “mask up, Alabama!”
For Planning Purposes
August 7
Sen. Sherrod Brown participates in a Biden campaign roundtable in Cleveland
August 9
Jill Biden delivers keynote address during Everytown for Gun Safety Action Fund’s annual Gun Sense University
August 11
Pence visits Arizona
Primary runoffs in Georgia and South Dakota
Primary elections in Minnesota, Vermont and Wisconsin
August 13
Pence visits Iowa
August 18
Primary elections in Alaska, Florida and Wyoming
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This story was originally published August 7, 2020 at 11:56 AM.