Impact2020: July 27, 2020
In today’s Impact2020 briefing, we look at why Joe Biden and Donald Trump may have less time to win over voters than the calendar suggests, why Florida Democrats are raising concerns over the Biden campaign’s efforts in their state, and the current state of both conventions.
On the Ground
When 99 days isn’t really 99 days
The calendar shows we’re now 99 days out from the general election, but in reality, President Donald Trump and Joe Biden “have far less time before many voters make their decision,” McClatchy’s Alex Roarty and David Catanese write.
This presidential election is expected to see an unprecedented rate of absentee and early voting due to fears of the coronavirus and the rule changes the pandemic has sparked.
Credit: John D. Simmons, Charlotte Observer
“Of the six core presidential battleground states, five of them — North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and Florida — will begin sending absentee ballots to voters who requested them in September,” Roarty and Catanese note. Arizona, meanwhile, will begin early voting and mailing absentee ballots on the same day: Oct. 7.
The earlier voting will test the Biden and Trump campaigns on “their ability to adapt to the newfound conditions while reaching out and educating their voters about how to now cast ballots.” And for Trump in particular, “early voting could truncate the amount of time he has left to stage a comeback.”
Sounding the alarm on the Hispanic vote
More than 90 field organizers for the Florida Democratic Party signed a letter to the party’s leadership, claiming the Biden campaign is “suppressing the Hispanic vote” in Central Florida, Bianca Padró Ocasio reports for the Miami Herald.
An internal letter obtained by the Herald “contains eight allegations from field organizers about what they say is a lack of a ‘fully actionable field plan’ from the Biden campaign as it transitions into the Florida party to coordinate voter outreach efforts.”
The organizers claim that the coordinated campaign lacks key infrastructure and perpetuates a “toxic” work culture. “One big issue is that at least a handful of organizers were recently transferred from a heavily-Puerto Rican part of the battleground state state to counties with a small percentage of Hispanics,” Padró Ocasio reports.
The letter was sent days after Florida Democratic County chairs shared similar concerns to party leadership that the Biden campaign risks repeating some of the same mistakes as the 2016 Hillary Clinton campaign.
The latest episode of McClatchy’s Beyond the Bubble podcast also tackled whether Biden should be concerned about lackluster support from Hispanic voters in key swing states like Florida. Listen here: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Stitcher | Google Podcasts
Convention crunch
For “the first time in almost two centuries, neither major party will hold a traditional convention,” the Charlotte Observer’s Jim Morrill points out. But that doesn’t mean it’s quiet in Charlotte and Milwaukee.
Morrill writes that “the shorter business portion” of the Republican National Convention will still take place in Charlotte on Aug. 24, including the formal nominations of Trump and Vice President Mike Pence. Trump is not expected to travel to Charlotte, but the city is planning to host around 330 delegates.
There’s still plenty of uncertainty around the Democratic National Convention in Milwaukee as well. But as the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Lawrence Andrea writes, “one thing is clear: there will be protests” around the Aug. 17-20 event.
Democratic state Rep. David Bowen of Milwaukee is among hundreds in the city who “celebrated 50 consecutive days of protests in the wake of the killing of George Floyd.” Bowen said, “Whether it’s the DNC or anything else going on, every day we are going to be out there.”
Meanwhile, the Coalition to March on the DNC plans to demonstrate the day Biden accepts the Democratic nomination, according to Ryan Hamann, the co-chair of the coalition.
“Hamann said the original focus of the protest was to speak out on ‘the inadequacies of the Democrats’ and recognize the need to beat … Trump, but that has since shifted to demanding community control of the police and “an end of police terror.”
Trail Mix
Battleground state watch
Biden, who was once viewed skeptically by some abortion rights advocates, received an endorsement from NARAL Pro-Choice America, McClatchy’s Alex Roarty scoops. The group plans to spend $35 million in battleground states this election.
Trump is visiting a North Carolina company this afternoon that “is helping manufacture one of the more promising vaccine candidates for COVID-19.” Zachery Eanes has more for the Raleigh News & Observer.
Biden’s campaign is airing its first general election TV ads in Nevada, focusing on seniors and the coronavirus, Megan Messerly reports for the Nevada Independent.
Biden called Iowa a “critical battleground state” during remarks that were played at a virtual state Democratic Party fundraiser, Brianne Pfannenstiel writes for the Des Moines Register.
The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Jonathan Tamari and Julia Terruso outline the state of play in Pennsylvania less than 100 days out from the election.
LeBron James’ “More Than A Vote” initiative committed $100,000 to a coalition that’s working to help ensure felons regain the right to vote in Florida, the Tampa Bay Times reports.
Battle for Congress
Republican Sen. Thom Tillis and Democrat Cal Cunningham, have agreed to two debate dates in September for North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race, Brian Murphy reports for the Raleigh News & Observer.
A poll commissioned by a Republican super PAC shows Republican Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Gimenez leading Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in the race for Florida’s 26th congressional district, Alex Daugherty reports for the Miami Herald.
Number of the Day
7%
Biden leads Trump by 7 points, 51% to 44%, in North Carolina, according to a new NBC News/Marist poll.
A Tribute
A message stands behind a portrait of Rep. John Lewis at a memorial vigil in Montgomery, Ala., on July 26. He lies in state in the U.S. Capitol this week.
Credit: Julie Bennett, AP
For Planning Purposes
July 27
President Donald Trump visits North Carolina
Vice President Mike Pence visits Miami
Jill and Joe Biden pay respects to the late Rep. John Lewis at the U.S. Capitol
July 28
Joe Biden will deliver remarks in Wilmington, Del.
Jill Biden makes a virtual campaign stop in Pittsburgh
July 29
Trump visits Midland, Texas
July 31
Trump holds a fundraiser in Tampa
August 1
Trump holds a fundraiser in Miami
August 4
Primaries in Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington
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