Impact 2020: July 20, 2020
Welcome to this Monday edition of the Impact2020 briefing. This is McClatchyDC Politics Editor Adam Wollner filing in for Meta Viers. Today, we examine the campaigns of the two leading Republicans in the Kansas Senate race, why small cities are posing a challenge for Donald Trump in Wisconsin, and the latest voting changes in Iowa and North Carolina.
On the Ground
Kansas kerfuffle
For the next round of primaries on Aug. 4, one of the marquee contests will be the GOP primary for Senate in Kansas. Democrats are hopeful — and Republicans are nervous — that they could flip the seat held by retiring GOP Sen. Pat Roberts under the right circumstances in the red state.
Bryan Lowry and Jonathan Shorman dove deep on the two leading candidates in the race, Rep. Roger Marshall and former Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach, in profiles for the Kansas City Star and Wichita Eagle.
As the election nears, Lowry writes that “the message driving Marshall’s campaign is fear, not hope. Fear of Kris Kobach. … Fear of a Democratic Senate. Fear of civil unrest. One Marshall television ad uses footage of looting and the demolition of a church as a backdrop to warnings that Kobach’s nomination could end Republican control of the Senate. … His journey from rural doctor to aspiring senator began in a strict Christian household, with a father who believed in corporal punishment and a reverence for the police.”
Credit: Kylie Graham, Kansas City Star
As for Kobach, Shorman writes that despite his loss in the 2018 governor’s race, Kobach is still betting that voters will accept his hardline brand of politics. “In the last year, Kobach has accused Democrats of using the coronavirus pandemic to push socialism, called for military action against Mexican drug cartels and labeled a U.S. Supreme Court decision that keeps the Trump administration from deporting undocumented immigrants brought to the United States as children ‘one of its worst decisions of the year.’”
“His campaign has been greeted with existential panic in some quarters of the Republican Party, which fear he could lose the November election to Democrat Barbara Bollier. … His GOP critics also worry he will force national Republicans to spend valuable resources fighting for a Senate seat the party has held since the 1930s.”
Small, but mighty
The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Craig Gilbert writes that “small Democratic cities … were an underrated ingredient in Donald Trump’s victory in Wisconsin” in 2016. He didn’t carry places like Superior, Janesville and Kenosha, but lost them by less than Republicans usually do.
But now, Gilbert notes, “these same communities … could pose a major challenge to Trump’s reelection.” Many of these areas “have reverted to their ‘pre-Trump’ voting patterns, performing solidly for Democrats in the 2018 midterms and in more recent elections as well.”
Gilbert breaks down the numbers: In the 51 Wisconsin cities outside of the two major population hubs of Madison and Milwaukee, Barack Obama won them by a combined 27 points in 2012, while Hillary Clinton won them by just 18 points four years later. But in 2018, Tammy Baldwin won them by 33 points in the Senate race and Tony Evers won them by 25 points in the governor’s race.
A socially distanced debate
As Republicans scramble to figure out how to hold their national convention in Jacksonville amid a pandemic next month, further south, the Adrienne Arsht Center for the Performing Arts in Miami is already laying the groundwork for their presidential debate in mid-October.
The Miami Herald’s Erin Doherty reports that the debate will feature the two candidates, President Donald Trump and Joe Biden, a moderator and 36 undecided voters. And just 115 attendees will be invited to sit in the Knight Concert Hall auditorium, which can hold up to 2,000 people.
“In addition to following social distancing guidelines inside the building, ‘all people on site’ must also wear a face covering inside and outside,” Doherty writes. “The plan is silent on whether Biden and Trump must wear face masks on stage, but the county’s rules currently require facial coverings in all public settings, and anyone who breaks the rules is now subject to a $100 fine.”
The Oct. 15 event is scheduled to be the second of three general election debates between Biden and Trump.
Trail Mix
Election disruption
Iowa GOP Secretary of State Paul Pate will mail absentee ballot request forms to all of the state’s registered voters before the general election, Stephen Gruber-Miller reports for the Des Moines Register.
A new order from North Carolina’s board of elections states that every county in the state must have at least one polling place for every 20,000 residents this November, Will Doran writes for the Raleigh News & Observer.
Masks will be encouraged, but not required, for Michigan voters in next month’s primaries, Dave Boucher reports for the Detroit Free Press.
More than 700 Georgia voters received the wrong absentee ballots for the August primary runoffs, Mark Niesse notes for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
Kanye West missed the deadline to file a petition to appear on the presidential ballot in South Carolina, Emily Bohatch reports for The State.
Battleground state watch
The Texas Republican Party elected former Florida Rep. Allen West as their new chairman, Patrick Svitek reports for the Texas Tribune.
The Dallas Morning News’ Gromer Jeffers Jr. explores how suburban women have been key to the Democratic revival in Texas.
Trump plans to hold in-person fundraisers in Tampa on July 31 and Miami on Aug. 1, David Smiley reports for the Miami Herald.
Former Ohio GOP Gov. John Kasich is expected to speak on Biden’s behalf at the Democratic National Convention, the AP’s Steve Peoples reports.
Listen Up
Make sure to check out the latest episode of the Beyond the Bubble podcast, where Alex Roarty, Brian Murphy and I discuss whether Biden’s polling lead is as solid as it appears and why Trump can’t seem to find an attack that sticks to his opponent.
Download: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Stitcher | Google Podcasts
Number of the Day
54%
That’s how many voters say they trust Biden more than Trump to handle the coronavirus outbreak, according to a new national ABC News/Washington Post poll. By comparison, 34% chose Trump over Biden.
For Planning Purposes
July 20
Joe Biden delivers remarks at Emgage Action’s virtual Million Muslim Votes Summit before hosting virtual fundraisers for his campaign.
July 21
Vice President Mike Pence visits South Carolina
July 31
President Donald Trump holds a fundraiser in Tampa
August 1
Trump holds a fundraiser in Miami
August 4
Primaries in Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington
IN MEMORIAM
Credit: Alex Brandon, AP
Rep. John Lewis of Georgia died Friday at the age of 80 following a battle with pancreatic cancer. Watch the video obituary for the civil rights icon from Meta Viers here.
And revisit McClatchy’s 2017 podcast interview with Lewis, which touched on Confederate monuments and professional athletes’ involvement in social issues, here.
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This story was originally published July 20, 2020 at 1:45 PM.
