Impact2020: July 17, 2020

It’s 109 days until the general election. But first, your Friday edition of the Impact2020 briefing! Some Democrats think Joe Biden should air more positive TV ads, Mike Pence leans into the GOP’s origin story in Wisconsin and Florida’s governor faces more pressure to take new action to combat the spread of COVID-19.

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On the Ground

Holding on to swing voters

McClatchy’s Alex Roarty reports that with a “significant slice” of President Donald Trump’s supporters switching their allegiance to Joe Biden amid a coronavirus pandemic and faltering economy, the presumptive Democratic nominee has a new challenge: keeping those swing voters from defecting back to Trump.

“We’ve gone from needing to convince people to change their opinion to now making them comfortable with the change they’ve made,” said Jesse Ferguson, a veteran Democratic strategist.

To operatives like Ferguson, that means a “greater emphasis — especially in TV and digital ads — on highlighting the former vice president’s positive attributes, rather than solely attacking Trump,” especially if the president’s campaign begins to successfully drive a negative message against Biden, Roarty writes.

So far, the Biden campaign has avoided purely negative TV ads against Trump, focusing on putting Biden in a positive light instead. It has run negative digital ads against Trump.

“It’s important that people continue to be reminded for the next 100 and change days of all the ways the president has failed,” said Lily Adams, who was a senior adviser for the pro-Biden super PAC Unite the Country before joining the Democratic National Committee this week. “But it’s also critical to make sure that voters know what Joe Biden would do differently.”

Because 2020 isn’t 2016...

Hear more from McClatchy’s Alex Roarty, Adam Wollner and Brian Murphy on whether Joe Biden’s polling lead on Donald Trump is as solid as it appears in a new episode of Beyond the Bubble podcast: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Stitcher | Google Podcasts

Back to their roots

As Trump loses ground in the polls, Vice President Mike Pence brought an anti-socialism message to Ripon, Wis., today, attempting to tap into the GOP’s roots.

The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Patrick Marley reports that in a 30-minute to speech to a crowd that was capped at 50 attendees, Pence said that Biden “would weaken the thin blue line that separates order from chaos.” He also tied Biden to democratic socialist Bernie Sanders, saying that the way the Democratic Party platform is shaping up, “it looks to me like Bernie won.”

Marley notes that the location of the speech was strategic. Ripon “played a crucial role in forming the Republican Party” being the place in 1854, where “Whigs, Free Soilers and disaffected Democrats met” to “discuss the formation of a new abolitionist party.”

Trump and Pence have made several stops in battleground Wisconsin, which Trump narrowly won in 2016. Biden has only visited virtually during the pandemic, but is expected to accept the Democratic nomination in Milwaukee at the national convention next month.

Pressure mounts in Florida

With coronavirus cases continuing to surge in Florida, nearly all of the state’s Democratic congressional delegation is calling for targeted stay-at-home orders and a statewide mask order, Alex Daugherty reports for the Miami Herald.

The Herald obtained a letter 12 of 13 Democrats in the House of Representatives sent to GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis on Friday. Part of it reads:

“We ask that you immediately impose a statewide mask order and stay-at-home orders recommended by public health officials in parts of the state where the outbreak is raging. By failing to reopen our state in the safe, smart, and step-by-step manner that you promised, and by ignoring [U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention] gating criteria, our state may be forced into a statewide economic shutdown, either by your order or simply because Floridians and visitors do not feel safe.”

It’s the “most substantial” call from public officials to impose measures that would close parts of Florida’s economy to stop the spread of COVID-19 yet, notes Daugherty. Miami Democratic Rep. Donna Shalala, the first member of Congress from Florida to call for a second stay-at-home order due to rising case rates, drafted the letter. Orlando Rep. Val Demings, who’s on Biden’s shortlist for vice president, was the only Democrat not to sign the letter.

DeSantis has not indicated he is willing to issue another stay-at-home order.

Trail Mix

Battle for Congress

• Kansas Rep. Ron Estes endorsed state Treasurer Jake LaTurner over incumbent Steve Watkins in the GOP primary in the state’s 2nd congressional district after Watkins was charged with three felonies in a voter fraud case, Bryan Lowry and Jonathan Shorman report for the Kansas City Star. Lowry also notes that Watkins will voluntarily step down from his House committee assignments.

• Republican-turned-independent Rep. Justin Amash of Michigan won’t run for reelection, Todd Spangler writes for the Detroit Free Press.

• Raising about $50,000 a day, California Rep. Devin Nunes has reported some of his best fundraising days following a lawsuit setback, Kate Irby reports for the Fresno Bee.

• The Miami Herald’s Alex Daugherty explores the challenges facing Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz’s left-leaning primary challenger Jen Perelman in Florida.

• Jerry Lundergan, a longtime force in Kentucky Democratic politics, was sentenced to 21 months in prison after being convicted of making illegal campaign contributions to his daughter, the Lexington Herald-Leader’s Bill Estep and Daniel Desrochers report.

• Desrochers also examines whether the usual GOP playbook in Kentucky of casting their Democratic opponents as too liberal will work in the Mitch McConnell-Amy McGrath Senate race.

• Pence is heading to South Carolina’s 1st district next week to boost Republican Nancy Mace in her campaign against Democratic Rep. Joe Cunningham, Maayan Schechter reports for The State.

COVID action

• A White House report calls Kansas and 17 other states “red zones” for COVID-19, Jonathan Shorman reports for the Wichita Eagle.

• The Raleigh News & Observer’s Will Doran takes a look at how reopening schools might play out in North Carolina’s political races in November.
  
  

Convention watch

• The Charlotte Observer’s Jim Morrill has the details on how the city’s leaders are reacting after finding out the Republicans are scaling back the Jacksonville convention, weeks after leaving North Carolina because they couldn’t be guaranteed a full-sized gathering.

Number of the Day

63%

That’s how many Americans who say it’s more important to try to control the spread of the coronavirus even if it hurts the economy, according to a new national ABC News/Washington Post poll.

For Planning Purposes

July 17

Joe Biden attends virtual fundraisers

Mike Pence visits Wisconsin

Jill Biden holds virtual events in Michigan and Colorado

July 18

DNC chairman Tom Perez will joins a virtual Biden campaign town hall

July 21

Mike Pence visits South Carolina

August 4

State primaries in Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington

“I’m sorry, this is just crazy”

Trevor Noah is as confused as the rest of us about Kanye West’s bid (or not) for president.

This story was originally published July 17, 2020 at 11:22 AM.