Impact2020: July 10, 2020
We made it to Friday! Welcome to the Impact2020 briefing. This is McClatchyDC Politics Editor Adam Wollner filing in for Meta Viers. Today, we take a look at how Joe Biden might rebuild the “blue wall,” the latest campaign activity in Florida and Pennsylvania, and another state that’s implementing a mask mandate.
On the Ground
‘Rebuilding the blue wall’
McClatchy’s Alex Roarty got his hands on a new report from a Democratic think tank that underscores just how much the party’s coalition has shifted in the Midwest in recent elections — a development that has major implications for Joe Biden’s path to victory in the region’s critical battleground states.
The study from the center-left Third Way outlines that Democratic-held House seats in the Midwest have become dramatically smaller geographically over the last decade.
“In 2008, thanks to holding a host of rural seats that cover a lot of sparsely populated land, the average midwestern Democratic district was 7,749 square miles, about equal to the average Republican district in the region,” Roarty writes. “But after the 2018 midterms … the party’s average seat in the Midwest shrank to just 2,731 square miles. The GOP’s average seat, meanwhile, swelled to 11,875 square miles.”
So what does that portend for Biden in 2020? Roarty writes that if the presumptive Democratic nominee hopes to win back states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin from President Donald Trump this fall, he’ll likely need to do so by relying more on white college-educated voters in the suburbs than white working-class voters in rural areas.
“It means rebuilding the blue wall doesn’t mean remaking it with the same material,” said Lanae Erickson, the senior vice president for social policy and politics at Third Way, referencing a group of midwestern states that had backed the Democratic presidential nominee in six consecutive elections before 2016. “What we’re really seeing is, we’re going to rebuild the blue wall with something different than what we’ve used in the past.”
Split screen
Speaking of midwestern swing states, both Biden and Vice President Mike Pence paid visits to Pennsylvania yesterday. Jonathan Tamari, Julia Terruso and Sean Collins Walsh wrap up all the action for the Philadelphia Inquirer.
“In separate stops throughout the day, they clashed over who could revive the economy, … Trump’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic, and the searing debates over racism and policing playing out in streets across the country,” they write.
Biden laid out his $700 billion plan to spur an economic recovery at a factory just outside his birthplace of Scranton, a region of the state “that delivered a shocking blow to Democrats” in 2016. Meanwhile, Pence addressed a crowd in northeast Philadelphia, “where supporters at the Fraternal Order of Police Lodge 5, the city’s police union, wore few face masks but many ‘Back the Blue’ and ‘Trump 2020’ shirts.” Pence also made stops in Chester and Lancaster counties.
The Inquirer team notes that the visits “created one of the first days of split-screen campaigning anywhere since the coronavirus curtailed public events.”
Next stop, Florida
Today, though, it’s Florida’s turn in the spotlight. Trump is “set to visit U.S. Southern Command in Miami-Dade County — the epicenter of Florida’s worsening coronavirus outbreak,” the Miami Herald’s David Smiley writes.
The president also “plans to participate in a roundtable conversation about ‘supporting the people of Venezuela’ … in the heart of the U.S. Venezuelan exile community. Later, he is heading to a fundraiser at a private residence … north of Fort Lauderdale.”
In a statement to the Herald, Biden dismissed Trump’s trip as “photo-op and a distraction from his failures” in handling the pandemic, and criticized his response to the humanitarian crisis in Venezuela.
Upon arriving at Miami International Airport this afternoon, Trump was not wearing a mask as he greeted local Republicans, Smiley and Alex Daugherty report for the Herald.
Trump is hoping to be back in Florida again at the end of August for the Republican National Convention. Seven of the state’s residents filed a lawsuit this week hoping to block the Jacksonville event “to protect the health and welfare” of the community during the pandemic,” Michelle Marchante notes for the Herald.
Listen Up
On the latest episode of the Beyond the Bubble podcast, McClatchy’s Alex Roarty, Francesca Chambers and David Catanese break down the strategy of the anti-Trump Republicans who are now trying to flip the GOP-controlled Senate, the president’s puzzling reelection message, and whether we should take Kanye West’s White House trial balloon seriously (spoiler alert: no.)
Download here: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Stitcher | Google Podcasts
Trail Mix
Battleground state watch
Biden’s campaign has hired a senior team in Iowa, a state Trump won by 9 points in 2016, Thomas Beaumont reports for the AP.
The Texas Republican Party is suing Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner over the cancellation of their in-person convention next week, Cassandra Pollock reports for the Texas Tribune.
Election disruption
The Raleigh News & Observer’s Will Doran explains how a coronavirus-related bill in the North Carolina state legislature could help Republicans with their voter ID lawsuit.
Election officials in two major Texas counties are cutting the number of polling locations ahead of next Tuesday’s primary due to a lack of workers, the Texas Tribune’s Alex Ura writes.
Georgia’s secretary of state is working with county elections officials ahead of the August runoffs and November general election to avoid a repeat of June’s chaotic primary, Mark Niesse and Amanda C. Coyne, report for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear is mandating masks statewide beginning Friday evening, Alex Acquisto reports for the Lexington Herald-Leader.
Battle for Congress
John Sharp takes a look at the stakes for Jeff Sessions in next week’s GOP primary runoff for Senate in Alabama for AL.com.
Number of the Day
33%
That’s how many Americans approve of the way Trump is handling the response to the coronavirus pandemic, according to a new ABC News/Ipsos poll.
For Planning Purposes
July 10
Trump visits Florida
The Biden campaign and Texas Democratic Party host a call with Beto O’Rourke
Sens. Tammy Baldwin and Tammy Duckworth host virtual roundtable in Wisconsin for the Biden campaign
Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Rep. Andy Levin will host a virtual Biden campaign roundtable
Pete Buttigieg will host a virtual Biden campaign roundtable in New Hampshire
Sen. Amy Klobuchar participates in a Biden campaign roundtable in Arizona
July 11
Louisiana primary
July 12
Puerto Rico Democratic primary
July 14
Alabama and Texas primary runoffs and Maine primary
July 15
Trump visits metro Atlanta
“Not exactly ‘Kelsey Grammer Fraiser’ money”
While filling in for Jimmy Kimmel, comedian Billy Eichner spoke with South Carolina Democratic Senate candidate Jaime Harrison about his record-breaking fundraising numbers — though he was quick to point out the campaign is still falling short of what some TV sitcom stars are raking in.
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This story was originally published July 10, 2020 at 12:33 PM.
