Impact2020: July 7, 2020

Congrats, we made it through Monday! This Tuesday, the Impact2020 briefing zeros in on the primaries in New Jersey and Delaware, President Trump’s messaging for his reelection strategy, and the money pouring in for Lindsey Graham’s challenger for U.S. Senate.

On the Ground

Election Day

Today serves as a test of whether New Jersey adequately prepared for Election Day after delaying its primary originally set for June. NJ Advance Media’s Jonathan D. Salant lays out the anticipated problems and issues already facing the mostly mail-in election, including reports of voters getting the wrong ballots.

“Just the sheer number of mail-in ballots could overwhelm the 21 county boards of elections that never before had to sift through so many absentee ballots, match them against signatures on file, and count them,” warns Salant.

Plus, “ballots could be lost” and “voters could forget to sign their ballots, further delaying a count since they will have up to two weeks after the primary to correct their mistakes.”

Whatever happens, results will not be finalized for a week.

Delaware is also holding its first presidential primary in which all its registered voters can vote from home. Voters had several methods to avoid voting in-person, including briefly online. But Delaware News Journal’s Sarah Gamard notes that option was discontinued in mid-June due to security concerns. However, voters who submitted their ballots online before it was discontinued will still have their votes counted.

Trump risks alienating voters

President Donald Trump’s emphasis on defending the legacy of the Confederacy is bewildering some political strategists as he tries to regain a winning coalition of white voters ahead of the election, report Francesca Chambers and Alex Roarty for McClatchy. That messaging,may risk alienating swing voters he needs to win reelection.

Republican pollster Frank Luntz described Trump’s response to the Black Lives Matter protests as “over-caffeinated.” “Trump is frightening them by going too far,” Luntz said. “They really want communities to treat everyone with fairness. They really want justice for everybody.”

Credit: @realDonaldTrump/Twitter

While a few in his base may still be energized by his current approach, veteran GOP strategist Alex Conant points out, “he won in 2016 by having strong base turnout and winning independents and more traditional conservatives who are very turned off by that messaging.”

Trump has experienced a polling slide amongst even many white working-class voters who were part of his 2016 base. And David Jolly, a former Republican congressman who represented Florida, said Trump may have “lost 3-4 percent of voters in states like Pennsylvania that have traditionally voted for Democrats and will decide the election,” report Chambers and Roarty.

“Division is a powerful element in politics. It’s just not one that gets you to 51 percent all of the time,” Jolly said.

Graham challenger sets fundraising record

The campaign of Jaime Harrison says the Democratic challenger for U.S. Senate in South Carolina brought in $13.9 million during the second quarter of the year, reports The State’s Joseph Bustos. That number was nearly double what he brought in during the first quarter in his bid to unseat Sen. Lindsey Graham.

Even though Harrison has broken fundraising records for statewide Democratic candidates, raised more than Graham during the first quarter, and “raised more money than Graham during the first month and a half of the second quarter,” Graham was ahead in total raised so far during the cycle, notes Bustos. And the seat is still “reliably Republican…”

Still, Harrison campaign spokesman Guy King says the fundraising record “reflects the grassroots energy behind Jaime’s movement, and will allow this campaign to make the investments necessary to send Lindsey home for good.”

Trail Mix

Election preview

• More Tarrant County, Texas, voters have cast early ballots for the July 14 primary runoff than they did during the early voting period for the 2016 primary runoff, reports Fort Worth Star-Telegram’s Anna M. Tinsley.

• Wisconsin’s five largest cities are getting $6.3 million to help administer the rest of this year’s elections, Mary Spicuzza reports for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.

Congressional watch

• The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has thrown its support behind Texas Sen. John Cornyn, reports the Dallas Morning News’ Todd J. Tillman.

• Rep. Joe Cunningham raised $862,000 in the second quarter in his bid to keep South Carolina’s 1st District seat, The State’s Joseph Bustos reports.

• A newly formed PAC is attacking Kris Kobach with a $3 million ad campaign less than a month before the Kansas primary, reports Bryan Lowry for the Kansas City Star.

Convention

• Jacksonville will get federal help handling security and other issues at the Republican National Convention thanks to a Special Security Event designation, reports the Florida-Times Union’s Dan Scalan.

• Jacksonville Mayor Lenny Curry tested negative for COVID-19 but is still self-quarantining before the convention next month,
  
  FloridaPolitics.com’s A.G. Gancarski.

Campaign stop

• Trump travels to Florida on Friday for a visit that “will mix Latin America policy and campaign politics in the coronavirus epicenter of the nation’s biggest swing state,” report David Smiley, Nora Gamez Torres and Douglas Hanks for the Miami Herald.

Protest fallout

• The State’s Joseph Bustos reports that Sen. Lindsey Graham says it makes sense to rename Clemson University’s Tillman Hall but removal of statues shouldn’t follow “the rule of mob.”

PPP

• A minor league baseball team partly owned by Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine’s family was a beneficiary of the Paycheck Protection Program, reports the Columbus Dispatch.

• Data shows that the federal program saved 3.2 million jobs in Florida. Alex Daugherty and Ben Weider have the details for the Miami Herald.

• Around 73 percent of the federal money given to protect Kentucky’s small businesses went to just 13 percent of the businesses, Lexington Herald-Leader’s Daniel Desrochers reports.

Number of the Day

2

The number of Democrats who approved of the job President Trump was doing in June, according to a Gallup poll. 91% of Republicans approved of his job, marking the biggest partisan gap ever recorded by Gallup.

For Planning Purposes

July 7

Delaware and New Jersey hold primaries

Biden holds virtual finance event

Trump and Pence hold an event on safely reopening schools

July 8

Biden holds virtual event for high school students with Karine Jean-Pierre

July 9

Jill Biden and Sen. Elizabeth Warren hold a roundtable discussion hosted by the American Federation of Teachers

Joe Biden visits Dunmore, Pa.

Vice President Mike Pence travels to Lancaster and Philadelphia, Pa.

You can listen to a new episode of the Beyond the Bubble podcast on Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Stitcher | Google Podcasts

July 10

Trump visits Florida

July 11

Louisiana primary

Trump holds rally in New Hampshire

July 12

Puerto Rico Democratic primary

What’s with all the whispering?

Is it the trailer for a horror movie? Nope, it’s The Lincoln Project’s new ad aimed directly at Trump.

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This story was originally published July 7, 2020 at 12:25 PM.