Impact2020: June 23, 2020
In your Impact2020 briefing for Tuesday, June 23, we take a look at when we should expect final results for today’s primaries in Kentucky and New York, Democrats’ tantalizing opportunity to put new swing states in play, and the latest battleground state visits from the president and vice president.
On the Ground
Hard choices
As Joe Biden opens up a lead over President Donald Trump in many polls, it’s tempting for Democrats to expand the battleground map. But they aren’t yet ready to launch major ad campaigns in newly competitive states such as Georgia, Iowa and Ohio, McClatchy’s Alex Roarty and David Catanese report.
Why? Leading Democratic groups are “worried that redirecting resources from the core group of six battleground states will repeat the mistakes of the last election and again give … Trump a greater chance of an Electoral College win.”
Josh Schwerin, a senior strategist for the Democratic super PAC Priorities USA, said: “Our spending is determined by the states most likely to represent the 270th electoral vote,” said “So the fact that Iowa, Ohio and Georgia are very much in play and winnable doesn’t necessarily change our spending plans.”
For now, the Biden campaign is sticking with the main six swing states, placing its first ad buys in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, North Carolina and Florida.
“The Trump campaign has targeted a slightly larger map, having run ads in Ohio, Iowa and Georgia in addition to the core six states since early May,” note Roarty and Catanese.
Debate over debates
Florida is now slated to host the second presidential debate this fall after the University of Michigan withdrew over concerns about the spread of the coronavirus, as David Jesse originally reported for the Detroit Free Press.
The Oct. 15 debate will take place at the Adrienne Arsht Center for the Performing Arts in Miami, the Miami Herald’s Douglas Hanks, David Smiley and Michelle Marchante report. They note the debate will have a “town meeting” format that includes questions from Miami-area residents.
Meanwhile, the Biden campaign shot down the Trump campaign’s request to have more than the usual three debates this fall ahead of the November election. McClatchy’s Summer Lin reports that Biden campaign manager, Jen O’Malley Dillon dismissed the call as “a distraction.”
Voting today, results in weeks
Kentucky and New York hold their primaries today and long lines are expected in Louisville, as the city of 600,000 people has one voting place. With many concerned that the limited number of polls could result in voter suppression, TARC and the Louisville Urban League are offering free rides to polls, WLKY reports.
With around 50 percent of voters who requested ballots already turning them in as of Sunday, Kentucky is expecting to see high turnout, the Lexington Herald-Leader’s Daniel Desrochers and Liz Moomey report.
Credit: Ryan C. Hermens, Lexington Herald-Leader
The two leading candidates in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, Amy McGrath and Charles Booker, made a final push in Eastern Kentucky Monday. But they differed in how they went about it: “While Booker has capped his campaign with a traditional bus tour and rallies, McGrath has made smaller appearances at existing events, reluctant to bring together a crowd during the pandemic,” Desrochers and Moomey note.
It will be a while before anyone knows the results of the races. All absentee ballots are required to be postmarked by today and received by county clerks’ offices by June 27, Ben Tobin reports for the Louisville Courier-Journal. “With the potential for major influxes of absentee ballots arriving after Election Day, all counties have been advised to wait to release results until Kentucky’s June 30 tabulation deadline.”
New York will likely also see a delay in results in key races, including in the state’s 16th congressional district, where Democratic Rep. Eliot Engel is facing a stiff primary challenge from Jamaal Bowman. The New York Daily News’ Dave Goldiner and Denis Slattery report that “early results released Tuesday night will likely only reflect in-person voting from polling places on Tuesday, possibly along with results from early in-person voting that wrapped up on Sunday.”
As of Monday, the city Board of Elections had received 708,421 absentee applications and mailed out about 679,245, while almost 30,000 voters hadn’t received their ballots.
Trail Mix
Battleground state watch
Trump is heading to Arizona today to visit the U.S.-Mexico border and address a megachurch in Phoenix. It’s the president’s third trip to the state in five months, Andrew Oxford notes for Arizona Republic.
Meanwhile, Mike Pence is traveling to Wisconsin today. Anyone who reserves a ticket for his campaign stop in Waukesha County must agree not to hold the Trump campaign liable if they contract the coronavirus, Molly Beck reports for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
The Journal Sentinel’s Graig Gilbert writes that visits to Wisconsin from Pence and Trump this week underscore the GOP’s need to shore up their base in the state.
“Bob Asher, a 22-year veteran of the Republican National Committee, … dropped his bid for another term, amid acrimony and infighting within the Pennsylvania GOP leadership over a plan to ease him out of the post,” Chris Brennan reports for the Philadelphia Inquirer.
The Inquirer’s Jonathan Tamari also writes that Pennsylvania Democrats are split over which VP contender would best help Biden win the state.
Battle for Congress
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce endorsed Roger Marshall for Senate in Kansas, Bryan Lowry scoops for the Kansas City Star.
The American Conservative Union endorsed Rep. Doug Collins in his bid to unseat Republican Senator Kelly Loeffler in a special election in Georgia, McClatchy’s Francesca Chambers reports first.
The Denver Post’s Justin Wingerter writes that the Democratic cavalry is coming to John Hickenlooper’s aid one week before a Senate primary that’s been more competitive than expected.
Republican congressional candidate Buzz Patterson, who is challenging California Democratic Rep. Ami Bera, was ridiculed on Twitter after he questioned whether the term “Kung flu” was racist, David Lightman reports for the Sacramento Bee.
Number of the Day
64%
That’s how many voters say the country is on the wrong track, compared to 27% who say it’s heading in the right direction, according to a new national Harvard-Harris poll.
Speaking of numbers...
On Monday, Trump’s press secretary insisted his comments at the Tulsa rally about slowing down the rate of COVID-19 testing were made “in jest,” but on Tuesday, Trump told reporters “I don’t kid.”
For Planning Purposes
June 23
Kentucky and New York hold primaries
Trump visits Arizona while Pence heads to Wisconsin
Biden attends a virtual fundraiser with Barack Obama
June 25
Trump visits Marinette, Wis.
Pence travels to Ohio
June 28
Pence travels to Dallas
July 7
Delaware and New Jersey hold primaries
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