Impact2020: May 1, 2020
Welcome to your Impact2020 briefing for Friday, May 1. Welcome to a new month with new political developments! Today, we explore the increasingly competitive races in South Carolina and Georgia, ballot fights in Florida and Missouri, and a change to how campaign cash can be spent in North Carolina.
On the Ground
No longer “safe”
Could Democrat Jaime Harrison really beat Republican Lindsey Graham? The analyses of two national political prognosticators suggest the U.S. Senate race in the reliably red state of South Carolina becoming more competitive, McClatchy’s Emma Dumain reports.
The Cook Political Report and Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted their ratings of Graham’s reelection chances from “solid” and “safe” Republican to “likely” Republican,” but cautioned that “the forecasts could not be read as predicting Harrison has a strong chance of winning the race, when Graham still enjoys the advantages of incumbency, a massive war chest and close ties to President Donald Trump.”
Credit: Andrew Harnik, AP
However, “Harrison’s strong fundraising, growing name recognition and potential for mobilizing South Carolina’s significant base of black voters who tend to support Democrats” could not be ignored.
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee showed confidence in Harrison’s viability with an early endorsement, but South Carolina Republican Party chair Drew McKissick predicted that in November Sen. Graham would enjoy “a statewide blowout.”
All about timing
The Kansas City Star’s Jason Hancock has the story of how Missouri Republicans have returned to the state Capitol to continue trying to repeal redistricting changes approved by voters in 2018.
“In a Capitol hearing room that was nearly empty because of the COVID-19 pandemic,” he writes, “the Missouri House’s general laws committee held a contentious hearing and quick vote on legislation that would put a constitutional amendment on the statewide ballot later this year targeting the new redistricting process approved by 62 percent of voters two years ago.”
Critics are crying foul about how the vote was conducted.
“Leaders in the Missouri House thought now would be a great time to force their extreme gerrymandering plan forward, hoping that no one back home would notice,” said Sean Nicholson, who led the 2018 campaign in support of Clean Missouri.
Republicans say the vote “is timely because the 2020 election is the last one where voters will be able to weigh in before the next decade’s districts are drawn,” Hancock writes.
The bill cleared the Senate already so if it passes the full House it will appear on the ballot for voter approval in 2020.
Campaign money rule change
North Carolina Senate GOP leader Phil Berger has used campaign contributions to essentially pay himself rent on properties he owns in downtown Raleigh. But a proposed rule from the State Board of Elections would ban that practice for all state politicians, Will Doran reports for the Raleigh News & Observer.
The elections board held an online public hearing on the matter Thursday. Berger did not speak at the hearing. “Only two people spoke at Thursday’s hearing, both in favor of the rule change banning such arrangements,” notes Doran.
Berger’s Democratic challenger, Wally White, also said he supports the change.
State officials won’t vote on the rule change until later this year.
The latest episode of the Beyond the Bubble podcast is about where the battleground map stands six months out from Election Day. Download it from Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Stitcher | Google Podcasts
Trail Mix
Battle for Congress
An internal poll conducted for the Georgia House GOP Caucus shows Trump deadlocked with Joe Biden in the state, and Rep. Doug Collins leading Sen. Kelly Loeffler by a 62-18 margin among Republicans in the Senate race, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Greg Bluefield reports.
Florida Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart will remain in Congress until at least 2023 after Democrats couldn’t find a candidate to challenge him, and that could prove to be a costly mistake as Trump’s support continues to sag in the swing state, Alex Daughtery reports for the Miami Herald.
In Florida’s 26th congressional district, Omar Blanco sued to have Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Gimenez, his Republican primary opponent and boss, thrown off the Aug. 18 ballot over a misspelled qualifying check, David Smiley writes for the Miami Herald.
Kansas Rep. Roger Marshall, who is running for Senate, said people face a greater risk of catching COVID-19 while shopping at Walmart than working at meat packing plants in western Kansas, Bryan Lowry reports for the Kansas City Star.
Reopening watch
Less than 2% of Florida residents have been tested for COVID-19 before Gov. Ron DeSantis’ stay-home order ends for much of the state Monday, Mary Ellen Klas and Ben Wieder report for the Miami Herald.
South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster told us to “stay tuned” for possible reopenings as pressure mounts for him to reopen more businesses, The State’s Joseph Bustos reports.
Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly unveiled a plan to gradually reopen the state, saying“it’s an effort to balance non-negotiable public health considerations with jaw-dropping unsustainable economic realities.” The Wichita Eagle’s Jonathan Shorman has more.
The Tacoma News Tribune’s James Drew writes that Washington Gov. Jay Inslee defended keeping restrictions in place: “We’re not going to make giant mistakes of waking up and thinking the sun is shining so we can forget about this deadly virus,” Inslee said.
Number of the Day
42%
That’s how many Democratic voters nationwide who want Elizabeth Warren to be Joe Biden’s running mate, more than any other VP contender, according to a new Data for Progress poll.
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For planning purposes
May 2
Kansas primary (conducted by mail)
May 12
Nebraska primary
That sigh!
Seth Meyers asked California Gov. Gavin Newsom how he was dealing with four young kids at home. If you’re a parent, his answer might hit home.
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This story was originally published May 1, 2020 at 1:47 PM.