True to 2020’s chaos, both Trump and Biden campaigns are struggling — and worried

It probably should not be surprising in this uniquely unusual political year that not one, but both presidential campaigns are at this stage riven with deep doubts and uncertainties. What’s certain anymore anyway, except that 2020 is unfolding in a dramatically unpredictable fashion that’s fascinating to watch, less so to endure, depending on your allegiance and employment status.

That invisible virus from — dare I say it — China has upended the entire political cycle, devastated the national economy, killed more than 125,000 people and totally derailed the season’s plans for both Republicans and Democrats. It has made the incumbent president into the underdog and turned the weak, forgetful challenger into an apparent front-runner skating toward the Oval Office.

The result: Camps and supporters of both Donald Trump and Joe Biden are deeply worried by the signs. And understandably so.

In the past century, only three elected incumbents have lost reelection efforts — Herbert Hoover, Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush. No one with any sense makes predictions about Trump or this year. But at the moment, the president appears in deep water that’s trending deeper.

Except for attracting gullible political readers, national polls are useless 18 weeks out. Hillary Clinton led Trump by 12 points at this stage in 2016. Ask her how that held up. Biden’s national lead varies but is slightly larger. What’s troubling for Trump is that he’s also falling behind in polls in key states he must capture to repeat his unexpected victory of four years ago.

Back then, he was outrageous but fresh, promising to take on embedded interests of both parties in the D.C. swamp. He’s still outrageous. But what was refreshing, even intriguing in a political newcomer who’d never held an elected office now strikes many as tedious Trump tumult. He loves that stuff and feels that it keeps his opponents off-balance and supporters exulted. It worked on TV. “You’re fired!”

But a majority of Americans has never approved of his job performance, and he’s done virtually nothing to broaden his base beyond the loyal 46% whose collective votes in 30 states gave him 57% of the Electoral College. In fact, some of his behavior and needless counterpunching seem designed to turn off fence-sitters who might have been convinced to opt for the guy who drove through tax cuts, deregulation, military rebuilding and a surge in energy production while crushing ISIS and reducing U.S. troops in Afghanistan.

Now come poll inklings that edges of his staunch base may be eroding among Republicans and even evangelicals. It’s hard to imagine faith and anti-abortion voters switching to a Catholic who supports abortion, an end to the tax cuts and is wishy-washy on Israel.

But 41 million Americans suddenly seeking unemployment checks will cause the unexpected.

Trump must emphasize any unexpected evidence of economic recovery, such as the recent jump in new housing starts and an optimistic surge in consumer spending, which comprises 70% of GDP. Trump must also make the campaign about Biden’s liberal policies, low energy and his mental acuity.

In recent days Biden, who turns 78 in November, has emphatically declared that 150 million Americans have died from gun violence and another 120 million from COVID-19. That would be 82% of the country’s entire population.

No wonder Biden’s camp has refused to do more than three nationally televised debates and has him so far keeping an unusually low profile for a challenger. Journalists try to ignore and downplay Biden’s confusing incoherencies and stark misstatements, which should be a challenge when he says, for instance, that the last president was George W. Bush and not Barack Obama, whom Biden served as vice president for eight years.

Trump has never been accused of delicacy. And so far, without the recently-deceased booming economy, Trump wants to make the campaign about Biden, not a referendum on Trump. And he’s got more than $200 million to do just that.

This makes sense in a normal political season. But this isn’t a normal season, as evidenced in a recent poll that found 78% of Trump supporters were “mostly voting for Trump” while only 20% were “mostly voting against Biden.”

But wait. Among Biden supporters, only 38% were “mostly voting for Biden” while a whopping 60% were “mostly voting against Trump.” This reflects a profound lack of Biden enthusiasm, which concerns Democrats. But it also reveals the likely hopelessness of Trump converting many of them.

Which means victory likely goes to the man whose supporters bother to show up — Trump’s diehard loyalists or Biden’s enthusiastic Trump-haters. The coming weeks will show the candidates’ intentionally contrasting campaigns. The indefatigable Trump is intent on holding mass rallies despite COVID-19 and a grand convention finale as the 74-year-old incumbent accepts the nomination in Jacksonville just before Labor Day.

Biden will continue occasional, safe forays beyond his basement. Democrats’ Milwaukee convention will be virtually virtual in a smaller venue with no cheering delegates and lots of remote speeches and taped segments.

Biden’s handlers have $100 million less at their disposal. They hope this dramatically different (and more affordable) style will not only suit and protect their guy from himself, but also provide a subdued, appealing alternative to their loud GOP opponent and these past 1,257 days of Trump turmoil.

The big question then for Biden is: Will low-key foment the enduring excitement necessary to overcome doubts about his mental status and rouse more than 65 million voters for Nov. 3 and the crucial month of early voting before then?

This story was originally published June 30, 2020 at 6:00 AM with the headline "True to 2020’s chaos, both Trump and Biden campaigns are struggling — and worried."