Most VP picks are cosmetic, but Joe Biden’s is crucial

At this stage of a normal presidential election year, idle media speculation tends to focus on who will be the candidates’ running mates, the vice presidential candidates vying to be sent to so many foreign funerals.

In recent times, it hasn’t really mattered much beyond political cosmetics. But the secrecy surrounding the selection process — sometimes lasting almost until the summer convention — attracts media like flies on roadkill.

Perhaps you’ve noticed, however, these are not normal times in many ways. Both Donald Trump and his presumptive challenger, Joe Biden, are already beyond the average life expectancy for white males born in 1946 and 1942, respectively. Biden would be 78 on Inauguration Day, by far the oldest person ever to undertake the stressful mental and physical demands of the presidency.

Biden’s occasional confusion and frequent nonsensical syntax have prompted questions about his mental state, even among Democrats. But, hey, they overwhelmingly selected him as their chosen champion to oust the despised usurper of 2016. So, he must be OK heading into the wrap-up June primaries and a mid-August convention of some kind.

Trump has publicly invited 60-year-old Mike Pence to remain his running mate. So, that seems settled for now. The former governor is a key connection to the evangelical base and has been given some unusually prominent roles by a boss who prefers the spotlight.

Biden would be 82 if he endured for a second term, which makes his selection of an heir apparent now seem even more important. And it will set the party’s initial direction for the next few years.

He’s promised it will be a woman and is said to be studying a short list with senior aides, hopefully more competent than the ones who have been running the teleprompter in his basement recently.

Sometimes, the selection is simple. John Kennedy wanted Texas in 1960. So, Lyndon Johnson was his quick pick. Rookie Sen. Barack Obama and Gov. George W. Bush wanted Washington gravitas, so they went for Biden and Dick Cheney. Nobody knows what George H.W. Bush was thinking when he picked Sen. Dan Quayle in 1988.

Other factors can come into play in this process. Gender, obviously. Race, personal compatibility, ideological leaning, elective and media experience, donor base, age, job resume. It’s no longer unseemly for possible running mates to campaign openly — “Pick me. Pick me.” Sens. Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris and Amy Klobuchar, along with Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer have all volunteered their services in numerous media appearances arranged by their staffs.

History suggests the ex-senator will select a senator. They think a lot of themselves. Of the 23 presidential elections since 1928, only four Democratic vice presidential nominees have not been senators — two House members, one Cabinet member and one with minimal electoral success, which would seem to eliminate Georgia’s failed gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams.

At 55, Harris is a perfect generation younger. She’s black and had six years as a sometimes-controversial state attorney general, three years now in the Senate and the past year as a Democratic primary competitor. Her campaign performance was inconsistent, and California’s 55 electoral votes are in any Democrat’s bag already.

Harris’ brightest campaign moment came in a scripted surgical strike against Biden during an early debate. But she’s already held a Biden fundraiser, a trick John Edwards used in 2004 to win John Kerry’s nod. And vacating her Senate seat poses no risk to Democrats. Oh, did I mention, she’s black?

Warren might help with the Bernie Sanders camp and is an Obama favorite. But her ideological baggage wouldn’t help with business. She’s in her seventies, too. A Harvard professor does not connect easily with the Rust Belt, and Massachusetts is another electoral Democratic gimme.

Minnesota has been so Democratic that it was the only state to resist the 1984 Reagan landslide. But Klobuchar performed well on the campaign trail and is from the moderate heartland region her party crucially lost four years ago. A former prosecutor with quite a temper, she led the pack endorsing Biden right before Super Tuesday. She turns 60 next month.

Trump stole Michigan’s 16 electoral votes and Wisconsin’s 10 four years ago. Biden needs both. Whitmer has 15 years of experience as a state legislator and one as governor. Trump has elevated her profile by criticizing “the woman from Michigan.” She gave the State of the Union rebuttal in February and will turn 49 in August. Oh, and Whitmer is co-chair of Biden’s national campaign.

The 58-year-old Tammy Baldwin could help with Wisconsin. She was the first openly gay woman in Congress, spent 14 years in the House and has been a senator now seven more, winning reelection by 11 points. Swamp denizens prefer fellow swampers.

Then, there’s Biden’s possible dream and nightmare partner, Michelle Obama — 56, black, female, most admired American woman. No elective experience, already wealthy, and she’s expressed disinterest in politics.

Biden might not want that couple hanging so close. But ambition, underwhelming enthusiasm for Biden and party fears about his mental health could overcome reluctance. Perhaps a vice presidential nomination would make her proud of the United States for a second time.

Biden’s decision won’t likely come for a while. Vetting usually requires assembling hundreds of pages of documents. Personal interviews are tough during a lockdown. And there’s publicity advantage to stretching the process into the summer, given Trump’s media dominance during a national health crisis.

Biden has not generally dealt in surprises. But then who would have thought in 1968 Richard Nixon would tap someone named Spiro T. Agnew?

This story was originally published April 21, 2020 at 6:00 AM with the headline "Most VP picks are cosmetic, but Joe Biden’s is crucial."