President Barack Obama said Monday that he was considering sending lethal aid to Ukraine but was holding back on a decision while hoping that economic sanctions and diplomatic talks would convince Russian President Vladimir Putin to withdraw from the country.
In a joint White House news conference with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Obama said he’d asked his team for alternatives to help the Ukrainian government stave off Russian aggression if a German-French diplomatic drive to end the worst bloodshed in five months should fail.
“It’s not based on the idea that Ukraine could defeat a Russian army,” Obama said of the potential to send arms to the Ukrainian government. “It is rather to see whether or not there are additional things we can do to help Ukraine bolster its defenses in the face of separatist aggression.”
But neither he nor Merkel – who opposes arming the government – expressed much optimism that Putin will be moved by the ongoing talks.
“There is anything but an assured success in all of this,” said Merkel, who’s expected to meet with Russian, French and Ukrainian leaders Wednesday in Minsk to continue the talks.
Obama said he agreed with Merkel that the prospect of a military solution to Russia’s aggression in the region “has always been low” given an “extraordinarily powerful” Russian military.
But he called the possibility of sending lethal defensive weapons an option to assist Ukraine.
“In the face of this aggression and these bad decisions, we can’t simply try to talk them out of it,” he said of the Russians and Putin. “We have to show them that the world is unified in imposing a cost for this aggression.”
The threat of a U.S. decision to provide weapons is by itself “useful leverage for European negotiators,” said Andrew Kuchins, director of the Russia and Eurasia program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a research center in Washington. Kuchins, who said he backed sending such aid, said lethal aid that resulted in “greater losses for Russian insurgent forces of men and materiel” might push Putin toward negotiating.
He said Russia had sought to hide its losses of soldiers and equipment, noting that polling “consistently shows that most Russians do not support their soldiers fighting a war in Ukraine.”
Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., who’s called for arming Ukraine, accused Obama and Merkel of offering “more of the same diplomatic strategy that is doomed to fail.”
He said defensive lethal assistance would “raise the risks and costs Russia must incur to continue its offensive. And it will pierce the veneer of the Kremlin’s cynical and false narrative that there are no Russians in Ukraine. As Russian soldiers fail to return home from Ukraine, Putin will be challenged to sustain a war that he has told his people is not happening.”
Neither Obama nor Merkel said they expected much out of the talks.
Obama said Russia and the separatists it supported in Ukraine had “violated just about every commitment” they’d made in a previous agreement. Merkel said conditions on the ground had actually worsened.
But the chancellor reiterated that she doesn’t think the conflict can be resolved militarily, and she said the U.S. and Europe “have to put all our efforts in bringing about a diplomatic solution.”
Still, she said, even if the U.S. decides to go ahead with arms, “the alliance between the United States and Europe will continue to stand, will continue to be solid, even though on certain issues we may not always agree.”
Russian media reported that Merkel had told Putin he had until Wednesday to reach an agreement or face increased sanctions, but they said he wouldn’t accept an ultimatum.
“Nobody has ever talked to the president in the tone of an ultimatum – and couldn’t do so even if they wanted to,” Dmitry Peskov, the Russian presidential press secretary, told the radio station Govorit Moskva, according to Russia Today.
The administration has long resisted sending arms to Ukraine, even as Obama faces increasing pressure from Republicans.
Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal – a potential contender for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination – on Monday added his voice to the chorus, endorsing arms to the Ukrainians even over Merkel’s objections.
Speaking to reporters at a Christian Science Monitor breakfast, Jindal charged that Obama’s cautionary approach has emboldened Putin and the U.S. needs to supply the arms to alter Putin’s “calculus.” He called the prospect of this week’s talks hopeful, but said, “The reality is the last agreements haven’t been respected by the separatists or the Russians.”
Obama resisted a German reporter’s suggestion that he lay out his “red line” for arming Ukraine. Obama has been criticized for not following through after the Syrian government crossed what he’d called a red line against the use of chemical weapons.
Obama also said Iran was running out of time to make a deal that would lift international sanctions in exchange for accepting restrictions aimed at preventing it from gaining nuclear-weapons capability. Iran has said its nuclear ambitions are peaceful.
“They should be able to get to yes,” Obama said of Iran’s negotiators. Secretary of State John Kerry said over the weekend that an extension beyond a March 24 deadline would be nearly impossible, and Obama said he didn’t think a further extension of talks would be useful.
The president sidestepped a question of whether he’s angry at Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for planning to endorse increased sanctions against Iran in a speech next month before Congress. But he reiterated his argument against imposing new sanctions, saying, “It does not make sense to sour the negotiations a month or two before they’re about to be completed.”
He wouldn’t say whether he supports Democrats who plan to boycott Netanyahu’s speech, which was arranged by House Speaker John Boehner’s office without White House notification.
The administration has said it won’t invite Netanyahu to the White House when he addresses Congress because his visit will be just two weeks before Israeli voters decide whether to re-elect him.
“Some of this just has to do with how we do business, and I think it’s important for us to maintain these protocols, because the U.S.-Israeli relationship is not about a particular party,” Obama said.
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