On the brink of war with Iran, Trump steps back
Six days of fear over full-scale war with Iran broke into relief on Wednesday as President Donald Trump said he would refrain from hitting back over Tehran’s strikes on American military bases in Iraq.
His decision to step back from an escalating confrontation with Tehran that began with the killing of an American contractor, and resulted in Trump’s targeted killing of Iran’s top general, has hit pause on a conflict that Washington was concerned could quickly spiral out of control.
“The American people should be extremely grateful and happy,” Trump said, flanked by military officials and senior Cabinet members. “Iran appears to be standing down, which is a good thing for all parties concerned and a very good thing for the world.”
Iran retaliated against the January 3 killing of Qassem Soleimani, the head of Iran’s elite Quds Force, by striking at two of America’s largest bases in Iraq on Tuesday night. The strikes did not result in any American casualties, avoiding retaliation by Trump, who had vowed to respond to any further bloodshed.
“We suffered no casualties. All of our soldiers are safe,” Trump said, crediting an early warning system that “worked very well.”
Yet both sides continue to issue threats. While Iran’s foreign minister, Javad Zarif, said that his government’s operation to avenge Soleimani had concluded, U.S. forces remain on high alert in anticipation of additional attacks launched by Iran’s proxy forces throughout the Middle East.
Tehran has threatened to strike at any nation in the region from which any future American strikes are launched on Iran itself. Officials in Israel and the United Arab Emirates have said they are prepared to defend their cities, including the bustling ports of Haifa and Dubai.
The day after Soleimani’s death, Iranian officials said they would abandon all limits on their enrichment of uranium — the fissile material that can be used to build nuclear weapons — set by Tehran’s 2015 nuclear agreement with world powers. Over the course of two decades, consecutive U.S. administrations have threatened military action in response to Iran’s expansion of its enrichment program.
In a sign of heightened U.S. concern about Iran’s nuclear activities, Trump opened his remarks on Wednesday by issuing a warning.
“As long as I’m president of the United States, Iran will never be allowed to have a nuclear weapon,” Trump said, for the first time calling on China, Russia and European powers to fully abandon the 2015 agreement.
One White House official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said that discussions within the National Security Council has already shifted to Iran’s nuclear program from the missile strikes.
Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., a defense hawk and one of the president’s closest allies, said Trump “needs to think about Iranian enrichment — what would a red line be, and communicate it to the Iranians.”
“I would want technical experts to tell me, ‘what level of enrichment does this thing really get out of hand,’” Graham added. He said he had no idea what Trump’s own “red line” would be.
A second White House official said that Trump had made clear that the killing of Americans would force a response.
“If we continue to escalate this — they are dealing with a president who has established a red line, and he has shown that if we cross it, he is going to take action,” the official said.
The president promised “powerful” new economic sanctions on Iran following the standoff, and said he was requesting NATO increase its supportive role alongside the United States in the Middle East.
“Today I am going to ask NATO to become much more involved in the Middle East process,” said Trump, standing alongside Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Army Gen. Mark Milley and several other top military service chiefs.
Trump spoke with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on Wednesday to discuss additional support the alliance could provide in the region, according to a NATO statement.
“The President asked the Secretary General for NATO to become more involved in the Middle East. They agreed that NATO could contribute more to regional stability and the fight against international terrorism. They also agreed to stay in close contact on the issue,” the statement said. No other details were immediately available.
Trump also suggested a willingness to work with Tehran on common interests, such as the fight against Islamic State. “The destruction of ISIS is good for Iran, and we should work together on this and other shared priorities,” he said.
In addition to the nuclear program, Trump warned Iran against continuing its “disruptive and destabilizing behavior” across the region.
“U.S. armed forces are stronger than ever before,” Trump said. “Our missiles are big, powerful, accurate, lethal and fast. Under construction are many hypersonic missiles. The fact that we have this great military and equipment, however, does not mean that we have to use it,” he said.
“We do not want to use it,” Trump said. “American strength, both military and economic, is the best deterrent.”
As Iran’s strikes were underway, Trump’s top national security advisers, including Defense Secretary Mark Esper and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, went to the White House to brief the president. They visited again on Wednesday morning to offer Trump a detailed damage assessment.
Trump administration officials believe the nature of Iran’s retaliatory attacks were intended to send a message of strength at home — the strike utilized Iran’s ballistic missiles — while offering Trump with an off-ramp from direct conflict.
Esper said 16 missiles were launched, 11 struck Al Asad Air Base and one hit near Erbil. At Al Asad, the missiles hit tents, taxiways, a parking lot and damaged a helicopter. The other four failed in flight, the Pentagon said.
Esper and Milley told reporters the attacks had the intent to kill U.S. forces, and had not deliberately missed injuring or killing any personnel.
“The points of impact were close enough to personnel and equipment, I believe, based on what I saw and what I know is that they were intended to cause structural damage, destroy vehicles and equipment and aircraft, and to kill personnel,” Milley said. The military’s early warning system gave them enough time to scatter personnel to protective bunkers and structures, he said.
Moving forward, the challenge will be to keep smaller scale attacks that they said are likely to continue to be conducted by Iranian-backed militias from dragging Iran and the United States into further escalation.
”I think we need to make the distinction between Iran on one hand and the militia groups on the other,” Esper said. “Our challenge will be to sort through that, to understand who’s doing it, who is motivating it. React forcefully, act forcefully, to make sure that we keep that level of deterrence raised high.”
The Pentagon is closely monitoring for additional attacks.
“We’re not sure last night’s attacks constitute the totality of Iran’s response,” said Ned Price, a former CIA analyst who served on the National Security Council in the Obama administration. Iran’s proxies “want revenge as much as the Iranian military, if not more so,” he said.
“The Iranians don’t typically exact vengeance launching ballistic missiles from Iranian military bases — they do so in concert with their proxies and partners, which have a presence around the globe,” he added.
One of the major reasons Trump tempered his response was that no U.S. personnel were killed, which another defense official attributed to getting adequate warning in advance.
“U.S. early warning systems detected the incoming ballistic missiles well in advance, providing U.S. and coalition forces adequate time to take appropriate force protection measures,” that defense official said on the condition they not be identified.
Over the past week, the United States shifted a significant amount of military assets to the Middle East to provide additional strike or defensive options against any further Iranian moves.
It redirected the amphibious assault ship USS Bataan, with 2,200 Marines aboard, through the Mediterranean toward Iran, deployed more than 3,500 paratroopers of the 82nd Airborne Division’s rapid deployment brigade to Kuwait, and sent B-52 long-range strategic bombers to the U.S. air base at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean.
There are currently more than 70,000 U.S. forces deployed either at sea or at bases throughout the Middle East.
Senior Republican lawmakers spoke by phone on Tuesday night with Trump, who provided them with advance notice of his remarks. Esper briefed members of Congress on the situation Wednesday afternoon.
As House members filed into Esper’s classified briefing, some Democrats said they were relieved that Trump didn’t declare war or make an explicit threat of additional use of force.
Rep. Jim Himes, D-Conn., who said he was nervous in advance of Trump’s remarks, conceded that “we may be a little less likely to be in a war today than we were yesterday, but obviously tomorrow is a new day ... The president is pretty unpredictable.”
“It’s good it’s not escalating,” agreed Rep. Ro Khanna, a California Democrat who is pressing for a House vote prohibiting funding for military force in or against Iran without prior congressional approval. “There’s still a chance for a resolution.”
But Himes, Khanna and others were still unsettled by Trump’s lack of explanation regarding the circumstances under which the decision was made to attack Soleimani and what the strategy was going forward.
Updates with Esper and Milley comments.
This story was originally published January 8, 2020 at 12:05 PM.
