Republicans long feared an enthusiasm gap in this year’s midterm elections, worried that conservatives couldn’t match the anger—and motivation—of Democrats determined to vote against Donald Trump’s party.
But in the final days of the midterm campaign, even as increasingly anxious Republicans confront the prospect of a massive suburban backlash, there are signs that their core base is engaged and voting. It’s a dynamic that could help contain the number of GOP losses on Tuesday.
“As a share of the early vote, evangelicals are voting in bigger numbers than they were two years ago,” said Ralph Reed in an interview Friday night. Reed is the chairman of the socially conservative Faith and Freedom Coalition, which is heavily organizing around the midterm campaigns and is tracking turnout numbers. “That gives us reason to be encouraged.”
In 2016, evangelicals were a crucial part of Trump’s coalition. And on a recent swing through two unexpectedly competitive House districts in North Carolina—the Charlotte-area Ninth District, and the suburban Raleigh-area Second District—there was evidence on the ground that the enthusiasm gap with conservative base voters, at least in traditional Republican territory, has narrowed.
Whether that’s enough to save Republicans in the face of surging Democratic energy and defecting moderates who put these districts into play in the first place is another question. Republican operatives working on midterm races around the country privately sound dejected about their prospects, and Trump himself openly acknowledged the possibility of losing the House on Friday,
“I’ve never been less confident about an election,” texted one GOP strategist who is looking at campaign data. “It’s not that I think we’re going to lose, but I just have no [expletive] idea what’s going to happen. There is so much weird [expletive] going on that it’s really tough to get a good read.”
Still, some Republicans say that in the last days of the campaign, they continue to see the lasting effects of the confirmation process of now-Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, a moment that energized conservatives, some of whom, Republicans say, were previously complacent at a time when their party controls all of Washington.
“It awakened a sleeping giant,” said Mark Harris, the Republican nominee in North Carolina’s Ninth District, running in a tight race against Democrat Dan McCready in a district Trump won by nearly 12 points. “It was quite amazing.”
Harris, a former pastor, faces a competitive race in part because of energized progressives and moderate Republican backlash to Trump in the district, and in part because past controversial remarks he has made about women, Muslims and now Jews have surfaced (he has said some of those remarks were taken out of context and that he is proud of all the working women in his family).
In an interview Wednesday, Harris brought up the Supreme Court when asked about the state of conservative enthusiasm, saying that since the Kavanaugh hearing in which the then-nominee fiercely denied accusations of sexual misconduct, his campaign has received notes attached to donations that read, “this is in honor of Brett Kavanaugh.”
“It definitely had an impact,” he said.
Some polls suggest that the Kavanaugh confirmation fight spiked enthusiasm for Democrats just as much, if not more, than it did for Republicans. The difference, Republicans argue, is that Democrats were already maximally motivated. That wasn’t previously true for Republicans.
“Democrats certainly have a significant level of enthusiasm,” said National Republican Congressional Committee press secretary Jesse Hunt. “But the gap has narrowed considerably from where it was in the early fall.”
Republicans are increasingly hopeful that at least their core voters aren’t staying home. If that holds, that could help blunt Democrats in traditionally red districts that nevertheless are competitive.
Early voting numbers, an imperfect metric for divining Election Day results, offer a snapshot of enthusiasm. This year, early voting has spiked across the country, dwarfing the 2014 midterm numbers in many states—a sign of motivation across the board. Democrats have been encouraged by the numbers with young voters and Latinos, but Republicans see reasons for optimism too.
“We think people are coming, and they’re coming in big numbers,” Reed said. “We think it’s going to be the biggest turnout in a midterm election of registered voters in a half century.”
A 59-year-old woman named Cindy declined to share her last name as she walked into an early-voting site in a tony south Charlotte neighborhood, saying that she feared retribution for expressing her views. Even as many of her neighbors were casting anti-Trump protest votes for McCready, she said that she was “doing straight ticket [Republican] because of the Kavanaugh situation.”
“Because I feel Democrats are going crazy attacking people for no reason, bringing up things that shouldn’t be brought up,” she said. “They’re always attacking everyone. It’s why all of us Republican women are keeping quiet, but we’re going out and voting.”
About 165 miles northeast of that voting site a day later, Leon Tebo, 75, stood in a Wake Forest campaign office decorated with an enormous American flag and multiple Trump 2020 banners. He was waiting for Rep. George Holding, the incumbent Republican, to address the room of volunteers, accompanied by House Majority Whip Steve Scalise and Rep. Liz Cheney.
“Some of the fervor from Kavanaugh may have waned slightly, but it’s still fresh enough in everyone’s minds,” said Tebo, who has done some volunteering for the Republican Party in the state.
Conservative energy in the area, he said, appears “close to where Democrats seem to be.”
Interviews with conservative voters in North Carolina revealed a theme that has long been true nationally: for them, there is no greater motivator than Donald Trump, who has been barnstorming the country in the last weeks of the campaign, including a recent visit to their state, in an effort to energize the GOP base.
That was evident in a get-out-the-vote push down a peaceful street in North Raleigh with representatives from Congressional Leadership Fund, the major super PAC aligned with House GOP leadership that has invested heavily in field operations in congressional districts across the country.
“Absolutely, George Holding,” said Fred Newell, 71, when the young Republicans knocked on his door and asked if he was planning to vote.
“He supports the president and what he’s trying to do.”
It was a similar story for Peter Montemurno, 44, who was undecided when he walked into an early voting station in Mint Hill, a more conservative town on the Charlotte outskirts.
“I don’t want to fall into the trap of ‘red wave’ versus ‘blue wave’ garbage, I’m not a pull-the-lever guy,” he said.
When he came out, he said that he “really respects McCready,” pointing to the Democrat’s service in the Marines. But he voted for Harris, who recently rallied with Trump.
“He has the backing of the president,” Montemurno said. “To me, that’s important...take away the distractions. What’s happening in America has been pretty good since he got elected.”
Not that local issues involving the candidates haven’t broken through, too.
In interviews across early voting sites in Charlotte-area Mecklenburg County, several unaffiliated or Democratic women noted Harris’s past remarks about women and their role in the home in explaining why they were voting against him.
“I’m a ‘servant lover,’” jabbed Dana Spivey, 58, as she shook Harris’s hand at an early-voting site here in Charlotte Wednesday morning, a reference to one of his comments.
But she identifies as a Republican, and she voted for him anyway.
“It’s almost like with Trump,” she said. “I don’t particularly care for Trump, but he’s better than the alternative.”
Katie Glueck: 202-286-2392, @katieglueck
Comments