Cruz needs Indiana’s evangelical voters, but do they need him? | McClatchy Washington Bureau

Ted Cruz is all about the evangelical vote, but in Indiana, it’s not proving to be a big help.

Not even with Gov. Mike Pence, a hero of the religious right, announcing Friday he was backing the Texas senator.

Cruz’s strong ideological position on religious liberty helped propel him to victory in Iowa and gain support in other states. He routinely talks about the need to have laws protecting business owners who say their faith prevents them from providing services for gay weddings. His father, Rafael, an itinerant pastor, has been active in the state.

All that should be a boost in Indiana, where Cruz must win Tuesday to stay viable in the Republican presidential race.

But though white evangelicals are estimated to account for more than half the Republican electorate here, they don’t dominate the party as they do in some other states, like Iowa. And while Cruz is popular nationally with evangelical voters, it’s not an overwhelming advantage. In state after state, those voters often choose a candidate on economic and national security issues.

Add to that another problem unique to Indiana: Pence.

The governor signed legislation last year protecting companies and individuals from government actions that would substantially burden religious practices. Cruz, along with most other 2016 Republican presidential candidates, supported Pence at the time.

The measure triggered a national uproar. Businesses quickly threatened boycotts. The NCAA, hosting the men’s college basketball tournament that week, expressed dismay. Pence relented and quickly signed legislation saying business cannot deny services on the basis of sexual orientation and gender identity.

A year later, reminders of the controversy remains, in part because of controversial legislation in states such as Mississippi and North Carolina. Wednesday, the NCAA Board of Governors voted to require cities hosting or bidding on its events to “demonstrate how they will provide an environment that is safe, healthy and free of discrimination, plus safeguards the dignity of everyone involved in the event.”

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Cruz has other problems with the white evangelical bloc. While he’s done well with that group elsewhere, he hasn’t had a huge advantage, according to network exit polls.

In the Feb. 1 Iowa caucus, for instance, an estimated 64 percent of Republican voters described themselves as born-again Christians. Cruz got 34 percent of the evangelical vote, an important total that was crucial to his victory, while Donald Trump got 22 percent.

In Mississippi, where 84 percent of Republican voters said they were evangelicals, Trump won 48 percent to Cruz’s 39 percent of evangelicals. Trump also topped Cruz among evangelicals in South Carolina, 33 percent to 27 percent.

In Indiana, “My guess is that Trump will win,” said Jake Query, a sports radio talk show host who has an afternoon drive time show on Fox Sports 97.5 in Indianapolis.

“I think that Pence has a lot to do with it. He was so polarizing with the religious freedom law.”

Pence on Friday endorsed Cruz on conservative radio host Greg Garrison’s program. Pence praised Cruz’s conservative positions, saying, “I’m very impressed with Ted Cruz’s devotion and knowledge of the Constitution of the United States.” Even the endorsement, though, was somewhat lukewarm – Pence first praised Trump, saying the billionaire businessman “has given voice to the frustration of millions of working Americans.”

Indiana experts thought Cruz is so identified with religious liberty issues that Trump may gain from the business community concerns.

Paul Helmke, Indiana University professor of law and public policy, is also a former mayor of Fort Wayne who ran a failed Republican Senate bid in 1998.

“He just doesn’t fit very well” with Indiana, Helmke said of Cruz, whom he likened to Pence. “Indiana politicians are usually a little more reserved than evangelical conservatives. Trump is appealing to something totally different.

“Indiana’s a conservative state but it’s never been controlled by the tea party or the evangelical factions. It’s Main Street, business, small government conservative, not social issues conservative.”

But Cruz supporter Curt Smith, president of the Indiana Family Institute, a conservative non-profit, who is an at-large delegate, thought this week’s Kasich-Cruz pact would have been valuable if Gov. John Kasich of Ohio hadn’t botched the selling of it.

“My read is Gov. Kasich is half-hearted about it,” he said, by not asking his voters to vote for Cruz. He still thinks Cruz will benefit.

“We’ve got to stop Trump,” Smith said.