New York’s Tuesday primaries could be so HUGE for Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton they could change the campaign’s narrative so that the front-runners suddenly have important momentum.
Trump, the Republican billionaire developer from New York, and Clinton, the Democratic former U.S. senator from New York, have maintained double-digit poll leads in the state for weeks.
Trump is better positioned to coast Tuesday and pick up most, if not all, of the 95 Republican convention delegates at stake. The figure to watch as results roll in is the delegate count. If Trump adds significantly to his lead, the narrative Wednesday morning will go something like this:
He’s now well-positioned to win five more states a week from Tuesday, where a total of 172 delegates can be awarded. Polls this month show him ahead in Maryland, Connecticut and Pennsylvania, where most of the delegates will be chosen.
After that comes a series of smaller states, with the next big single prize June 7, when five states – including California and New Jersey – offer a total of 303 delegates.
Among the Republican candidates, Trump leads with 744 delegates. Trailing are Cruz, with 559, and Kasich, 144
It’s difficult at the moment to see how he reaches the 1,237 needed for the nomination by June 7, but strong showings, starting Tuesday, could give his candidacy an air of inevitability.
Tuesday’s outcome is likely to make it virtually impossible for Ted Cruz to win a first ballot victory. But the senator from Texas has outmaneuvered Trump recently for delegates at party caucuses and conventions who could switch to Cruz on a second ballot
The best hope Tuesday, and for that matter next week, for Cruz and Gov. John Kasich of Ohio is to pick up stray delegates here and there. Should Trump get more than 50 percent in a New York congressional district, he wins all three of the district’s delegates. Anything less means non-winners can pick up delegates.
Trump is a big favorite in New York, where his blunt style is nothing new. “He’s not always politically correct,” said Kate Rolf, a Syracuse health care executive, “but political correctness is out of control in a lot of cases.”
Cruz and Kasich have pushed hard for those random delegates, but they hardly seem to be resonating. Cruz is still defending his remarks at a January debate about “New York values,” which he called “socially liberal.”
Cruz’s wounds are self-inflicted.
Dan Isaacs, former Manhattan Republican chairman
New Yorkers don’t forget.
“He doesn’t know what New York is,” said Moshe Green, a Brooklyn convenience store owner. “It’s probably the first time he’s been to New York.”
It’s not, but when Cruz spoke at the state GOP dinner last week in Manhattan, he could barely be heard as people chatted with one another. When Trump spoke, he got rousing cheers.
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Clinton has a somewhat tougher task, since Sen. Bernie Sanders, a Vermont independent, has drawn thousands to his New York City rallies. The Monmouth University poll earlier this month had Clinton topping Sanders in the city, but it found that 13 percent of voters in Brooklyn, Queens, Manhattan and the Bronx were undecided.
The Clinton-Sanders dynamic in this state, which both claim as their home turf, is identical to that in other states: He gets more enthusiastic, younger supporters. She has a wide lead among black and Hispanic voters. The affection was clear last week when she visited the Bronx’s Co-op City, a sea of high-rises with a large minority population.
“She enjoys helping people. She’s not being selfish,” said Cheryl Emanuel, a Bronx hospital worker.
Not everyone, though, was excited about Clinton. She’s leading in delegates, 1,758 to 1,076, but included in that tally are 469 superdelegates, party officials who aren’t bound by voting results. A total of 2,383 is needed to nominate.
“The superdelegates bother me,” said Mike Miller, a Bronx teacher. “It’s indirect. I like direct.”
Should the polls be correct, the post-primary Democratic narrative will suggest that Clinton could all but wrap up the nomination next week, since she’s doing well in all five states. As well as New York.
“The overall dynamics look pretty stable for both primaries,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.
David Lightman: 202-383-6101, @lightmandavid
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