Polls find Trump benefits from mayhem at his rallies, at least for now | McClatchy Washington Bureau

Protesters are a boost to Donald Trump’s campaign for the Republican presidential nomination.

But should he become the nominee, his insulting, tough-guy ways of dealing with those who disrupt his rallies may be a big liability.

Mayhem has become commonplace in, around and as a postscript to the billionaire businessman’s public events. Tuesday, police in Florida charged Corey Lewandowski, Trump’s campaign manager, with simple battery, a misdemeanor. Police say he grabbed the arm of Breitbart News reporter Michelle Fields as she tried to ask Trump a question March 8, apparently causing an injury.

A campaign statement said he would plead not guilty and was “completely confident that he will be exonerated.” He is scheduled to appear before a judge May 4.

Trump regularly reacts to uprisings at his rallies by telling agitators to “go home to mommy” or “get a job.” After a fight erupted at an event last fall, he later suggested of the protester, “Maybe he should have been roughed up.” He said after another incident that he’d like to punch a protester.

So far, all this has helped him in some key states. “It reinforces the narrative among his core supporters,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.

The protests have become routine since the week before a series of crucial March 15 primaries, a day when five big states were voting. On March 9, a man was arrested at a Fayetteville, North Carolina, rally, accused of punching a protester. Two days later, Trump’s St. Louis speech was interrupted six times, and that evening he canceled his Chicago appearance because of safety concerns.

On March 12 and 13, Monmouth asked Republicans in Florida and Ohio, two of the March 15 primary states, whether the Chicago turmoil made them more or less likely to back Trump. Most said it made no difference, but among those in Florida with an opinion, twice as many people said it made them more likely to back Trump rather than less. His lead increased in the state, though it was not clear whether it was directly related to the protests.

In Ohio, where Gov. John Kasich was on his way to a big win, slightly more people said they were now inclined to back Trump.

Nationally, Trump’s handling of the protests doesn’t bother most Republicans. Since March 9, he’s won five of seven states, losing only Ohio and the Utah caucus, which Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas won. Quinnipiac found that 60 percent of Republican respondents said he was not responsible for any violence. Ninety percent said the protesters were responsible.

The protests have continued. On March 19, demonstrators blocked traffic leading to a Phoenix, Arizona, suburb as Trump prepared to host a rally.

Monday night, six people were arrested protesting a planned Trump stop in Janesville, Wisconsin. About 60 people sat in the lobby of the hotel where Trump was to appear Tuesday, a week before Wisconsin’s primary.

Trump opponents maintain the demonstrations are working. “Protests have always been part of a toolkit for civil rights movements. They are a necessity to give voice and visibility to discontent and offer alternatives. Polling is irrelevant. History is our best teacher,” said Christine Neumann-Ortiz, executive director of Voces de la Frontera, Wisconsin’s largest immigrant rights organization.

Trump and Cruz are in a virtual tie in the latest Wisconsin polls. While it’s hard to pinpoint why Trump’s support in the state has slipped in recent weeks, “Republican voters won’t support someone who incites violence from the podium,” said Rory Cooper, adviser to #NeverTrump SuperPAC, which backs Cruz in Wisconsin.

Trump’s campaign did not respond to requests for comment, but he has repeatedly said he does not condone violence. “People have the right to protest outside. There are designated peaceful protest areas at our large events,” spokeswoman Hope Hicks said.

Trump has thrived as an authoritarian figure, an unbridled scold undaunted by anyone who got in his way, whether it’s the government, terrorists or dissidents.

“It sends out the message he’s willing to stand up,”said Rep. Tim Huelskamp, R-Kan.

Fighting protesters works for Trump on several levels. Not only can he assume the no-nonsense role, but the action also keeps the focus on him, often at the expense of his rivals.

“It brings more attention to his message. That’s why he’s the king of free media,” said Katon Dawson, a former South Carolina Republican chairman.

It also allows him to rail against opponents and pundits who say he should be doing more to discourage any violence.

“Being attacked by the Republican establishment and the media has been helping him for months,” said Carter Wrenn, a Republican commentator based in Raleigh, North Carolina.

The trouble with all this fist-clenching in a general election is that people usually want a more judicious temperament.

It’s hardly unusual for a candidate to stress a polarizing position do appeal to a party’s most active corps of voters during a nomination battle – on abortion, immigration, guns – and then try to avoid or at least cool the rhetoric in the fall.

“You take one election at a time,” said Wrenn.

But here’s the difference: A candidate can control his message, but he can hardly control protesters.

In an age where people are already on edge fearing violence, the notion of having their president encouraging such behavior could hamper Trump once he has to reach beyond his core supporters. A Quinnipiac poll found that nearly 2 of 3 independents thought Trump was responsible for the violence. So did 38 percent of Republicans and 88 percent of Democrats.

“No way that can help him,” said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “Any way you look at it, that’s not a good number.”