Is the California recall race close? New polling shows Gavin Newsom in the lead

A majority of voters plan to support Gov. Gavin Newsom in the Sept. 14 recall election, new polling shows, shifting a weeks-long perception that the first-term Democrat is in serious danger of removal.

The nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California published a survey late Wednesday showing a majority of likely voters, 58%, plan to vote “no” on removing Newsom. That’s slightly higher than previous PPIC polling, which showed support for Newsom at 56% and 57% in March and May, respectively.

Another recent survey, conducted by the right-leaning Trafalgar Group in late August, found 52% of respondents planned to vote “no” on the recall, while 44.4% supported the removal. Of the 1,088 respondents contacted, 3.7% said they were undecided.

Similarly, a recent poll from SurveyUSA showed a 51% to 43% margin in favor of keeping Newsom — a drastic change from polling SurveyUSA did a month ago, when it found 51% of voters supported the recall, while only 40% opposed it.

Some earlier polls indicated a close outcome for Newsom.

Voters were almost evenly split on the recall as recently as July, according to a poll from UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies. PPIC researchers also indicated in July that there was a significant enthusiasm gap between recall supporters, who were much more engaged, and Newsom supporters, who were not as engaged.

Newsom, in campaign emails last month, warned supporters that “this recall is close,” and “if we do not have the resources we need to turn out our voters, we could lose this recall.”

Paul Mitchell, vice president of Political Data Inc., said he suspects vigorous messaging on the part of Democrats has awakened Newsom’s voters, along with the perceived threat from frontrunner Larry Elder, a radio talk show host whom Newsom has attacked as a far-right Trump supporter.

“Six or eight weeks ago it was really close, because Democrats were just not activated at all. They’d been fed a message that ‘this thing’s a joke, it’s not even going to get on the ballot.... people weren’t taking it seriously,” Mitchell said.

“Democrats have now been awoken, they’re like ‘oh s--- it’s real, I guess I do have to vote.’ And then the Larry Elder gift to the Newsom campaign and being such a polarizing candidate, allowing Newsom to talk about national political issues.... now Democrats are like ‘yep I’m against the recall.’ They know what to say, they have an opinion, they are engaged, they’re turned on.”

Mark Baldassare, PPIC president and CEO, said the research has indicated for months that the recall is an extremely polarizing race. The institute’s recent polling also indicates voters are less supportive of the recall process as a whole and more concerned about the negative consequences of removing Newsom.

After a summer of political messaging by the anti-recall campaign, a shrinking share of California likely voters say the current effort to recall the governor is an appropriate use of the recall process (44% today, 52% March) That shift is most evident among Democrats, 35% of which said the Newsom recall is an appropriate use of the process in March, compared to 17% today.

More likely voters indicated in the PPIC poll that they expect things in California will get worse if Newsom is recalled (41%) compared to 34% in May.

In its analysis, SurveyUSA suggested Democratic voters have become more motivated over the past month by the arrival of mail ballots and increasing concern around COVID-19. Elder, the leading candidate to replace Newsom, has promised to repeal the state’s mask and vaccine mandates upon taking office.

“Voters concerned about the spread of COVID, newly focused on the possibility of Elder sitting in the Sacramento Governor’s Mansion, may be newly sobered by the possibility of a recall,” the pollster said in its analysis.

Elder continues to lead the pack of candidates in the PPIC poll, with 26% of likely voters backing him. But nearly half of all respondents, 49%, said they don’t favor any replacement, plan not to vote for a replacement, or don’t know who they should pick.

With the election date two weeks away, Newsom and his allies have been working hard to overcome an enthusiasm gap between their voters and Republican recall supporters. Early polling indicated that Republicans were much more engaged, informed and willing to vote in the recall than Democrats.

All California voters received a mail ballot this year, a measure taken by the Legislature in light of ongoing COVID-19 concerns. Early returns show Democrats are returning their ballots at a higher rate than Republicans. As of Wednesday, 24% of registered Democrats had returned their mail ballots, according to Political Data Inc., compared to 21% of Republicans and 16% of independents.

If more than 50% vote to remove Newsom, the candidate with the highest number of votes on question two will be sworn in as governor.

Baldassare said the declining perception among Democratic voters that the current recall is appropriate, coupled with the growing belief that the removal of Newsom would lead to things getting worse, are shifts that would help to energize support in Newsom’s base.

The governor on Tuesday said he was encouraged to see the high number of Democratic ballot returns and expressed optimism over the coming weeks, when volunteers will deploy a robust get out the vote effort.

“We’re seeing that gap, in terms of knowledge, close very, very rapidly, and I’m very encouraged by that,” the governor said Tuesday.

This story was originally published September 2, 2021 at 12:00 AM with the headline "Is the California recall race close? New polling shows Gavin Newsom in the lead."